Economics Project
Crime Crime Sources Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Report (UCR) National Incident -Based Reporting System (NIBRS) Justice Department National Crime Victimization Survey Crime Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Collected by FBI from local police departments using legal definitions of crime. Issues “Downgrading crimes” by agencies to create more favorable stats. Hierarchy rule (only the most serious offense recorded). National Incident -Based Reporting System (NIBRS) FBI compiled and designed to eventually replace the UCR. Expands UCR to record 46 major crimes using standard legal definition of offenses. Incident based - recording data on offense, offender, victim, property, and arrests for individual events. All crimes reported: no hierarchy rule. Issues Developing but currently lacking sufficient data to make broad generalizations about national crime. National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Annual household survey data collected by the Census Bureau on behalf of the DOJ . More inclusive than the UCR; includes both reported and unreported crimes. Issues: Excludes murder, commercial burglary and robbery, victimless crimes, and white -collar crimes. Excludes crimes against the homeless . One household respondent: may exaggerate their own, versus other HH members, victimizations. Telescoping : bringing past victimizations closer to the present. Crime Studies on Crime Crime is down? 1991 -2000: U.S. experienced a 44 % drop in homicides, 47% drop in robberies, and a 42% drop in burglaries. 2001 -2008: stabilized, then dropped again in 2009 and 2010 . Explanations: Expanded availability of abortions after 1973. Good economic conditions. Higher incarcerations. Policing efforts. Are There More Female Criminals? Since the mid -1990s the ratio of offenses committed by women relative to men has increased. The number of women offenders decreased but not as fast as that for men. Explanations: Higher single (vs. collaborative) offender incidents. More equal gender roles and increased freedom of women. Welfare reform. Crime Human Trafficking Direct counts are unrealistic so extrapolations are necessary. 1999 CIA report 45 -50K women and children trafficked annually. Revised in 2004 to 15 -18K annually. Actual cases in 2007; 1362. 2007 NY Times , CNN, USA Today, & CSPAN reported: 100 -300K child prostitutes in the U.S.. Based on a study by the University of Pennsylvania that counted “at risk” population, not actual prostitutes. 827 child prostitute arrests in the U.S. over 10 year period in the 37 largest cities 248 children involved in sex trafficking between 2008 -2010 Misrepresentation of stats may result in allocation of funds to fight a war on particular crimes that could be better allocated elsewhere. Crime Identifying the Highest Crime Regions Adjusted vs. Unadjusted Statistics Adjusted Data: poverty , income, unemployment, race, and female headed households are controlled for when correlated with crime. Appropriate for evaluating law enforcement policies and overall success. Similar adjustments are made in education to evaluate policies and teaching success. Unadjusted Data: Appropriate for evaluating quality of neighborhood and overall safety. Population Count Matters Crime typically measured per 100,000 people. Overestimates of population artificially lower crime rate. Underestimates artificially raise crime rate. Rape Unreliable data: deficient reporting and lack of a clear definition. Prior to 2012 the UCR considered forcible vaginal penetration as rape. Post 2012 includes Male -Male rape, non -vaginal penetration, and nonconsensual/non -violent rape. Crime Poverty Causing Crime? Correlated at group level (city, neighborhood, etc.) but not at individual level. Implications: Government policy designed to counter poverty may not reduce crime. Correlation not consistent with the Great Depression and Recession. Offsetting factors: less to steal, decreased mobility, and greater unity in extreme economic conditions. High Black Crime. >30% of arrestees and 39% of prison population are black. Blacks 25 -44 are 8 times more likely to be murdered than whites counterparts. Disproportionate black on black crime suggests crime differential is real. Type of crime may increase probability of being arrested Blacks more likely to commit conspicuous street crimes. Whites more likely to commit inconspicuous burglary and drunk driving. “Crime” in UCR omits white -collar crimes. May be discrimination and bias in the law enforcement and judicial system. Crime Does Prison Pay In 2008 over 2% of US males 18 -64 were incarcerated. US has the highest incarceration rate in world. Cost -benefit analysis Cost to imprison an individual per year (approx. 25K) Benefit is value of reduced crime. Most criminals commit a larger number of crimes than apprehended for. 3 strikes law? More Guns More/Less Crime? Over 300 million guns in America. Highly concentrated: ½ of households do not own guns. Correlation studies difficult since ownership is both legal and illegal. Who kills and would gun control stop them? 13% of murders are committed by strangers. 18% by family members. 40% known to the victim ( includes gang members and drug dealers ). Remainder undetermined.