Read the following argument and answer the question that follows: According to the 2010/11 Statistics Canada census aboriginal Canadians constituted...

1. Read the following argument and answer the question that follows:

1. According to the 2010/11 Statistics Canada census aboriginal Canadians constituted 4.3% of the Canadian population.

2. According to the 2011 Statistics Canada data, 27% of the adult population incarcerated in Provincial and Territorial correctional facilities were aboriginal, and 20% of the adult population incarcerated in Federal prisons were aboriginal.

3. Therefore, being aboriginal is a cause of criminality (from 1 + 2)

Is the inference to (3) inductively valid? Explain.

Remember that for an inductive inference with linked premises to be valid the premises must be acceptable and they must be sufficient to render the conclusion probable. An assessment of inductive validity requires you to explain your reasons for weighing the evidence as you do. (Worth 4 marks)

2. Read the following excerpt from the July 2006 issue of Scientific American:

During the run up to the 2004 presidential election, while undergoing an MRI brain scan, 30 men – half described as ‘strong’ Republicans and half as ‘strong’ Democrats – were tasked with assessing statements by both George W. Bush and John Kerry in which the candidates clearly contradicted themselves. Not surprisingly, in their assessments Republican subjects were as critical of Kerry as Democratic subjects were of Bush, yet both let their own candidate off the hook.

State whether there is an inductive generalization in the passage and if there is, identify the sample and target population and assess the inductive strength of the generalization.

(Worth 4 marks)

3. Consider the following conductive argument:

P1. Critical thinking teaches the fundamentals of good reasoning.

P2. Critical thinking helps people learn how to detect bad reasoning in the arguments they hear and read.

P3. Critical thinking principles underlie all the academic disciplines.

P4. Critical thinking teaches skills that are useful in the everyday world.

MC. Critical thinking courses are certainly the most important courses in the curriculum.

Is the inference to the main conclusion inductively valid? Explain. (Worth 2 marks)

4. The newly elected Canadian government is planning on withdrawing Canada’s CF-18 jets from the allied bombing campaign against the Islamic State (aka ISIS, aka ISIL, aka Daesh) forces within Iraq and Syria. The Conservative opposition in Parliament is opposed to the government’s plan.

Good inductive arguments require evidence (facts) and they require good evidential reasoning. To answer this question you must: (1) state a position for or against the government’s policy, (2) provide four facts that you would want to discover in order to construct an inductive argument supporting your position, and (3) explain why you believe the facts you have chosen would be both relevant and probative in constructing an inductive argument supporting your position.

Your answer will be assessed in terms of how much insight the facts selected demonstrate into what kind of factual evidence would be useful for an inductive argument on the issue, and in terms of how well you explain the relevance and potential probative value of your fact selection.

(Worth 4 marks)