This is what I would like you to do using the data set provided: The first step is to analyze the no-show time series graphically; in Step 2, use your graphical analysis to determine what the time ser

Since this is such an important part of your job, I would like for you to practice forecasting historical flights before setting the booking limits on future flights.” Adams explained. “This is what I would like you to do: The first step is to analyze the no-show time series graphically; in Step 2, use your graphical analysis to determine what the time series components are; and in Step 3, use the forecasting methods that you learned in your class to forecast no shows for the next week. In other words, you will need to generate forecasts for the next seven flights. Like you did in your class, make sure to try out a number of different models before you choose the best to make your forecasts. There is more than one way to approach this problem. I will leave it up to you to develop a good approach.”

Sherry finished taking her notes and asked, "How do you translate no shows forecasts into booking limits?"

Adams smiled and said, "That is a good question! Let’s add that to your project. In Step 4, I would like you to compute the booking limits for the seven flights. The limits will be based to some extent on your forecasts, but there are other issues that you will have to consider. In your report, explain in detail how you translated your no show forecasts into booking limits. When developing your method, be creative. This problem is not as simple as it appears."

"Report?"

Adams laughed. "Yes, a report. Your report should begin with an executive summary of your findings that includes your actual forecasts and booking limits. The report should include the following sections: (1) Introduction that includes a brief statement of the problem; (2) No Show Forecasts section that includes a detailed discussion of your time series analysis, a detailed discussion of how you modeled the problem, a detailed discussion of the models you selected to test and why you chose those models, a summary of the results of your tests, and your forecasts; and (3) a Booking Limits section that includes the booking limits for the seven flights and a detailed explanation of how you translated your no show forecasts to booking limits. Also, provide me a copy of your Excel workbook that contains all of your analysis. It is important that you turn in a very well-reasoned document. Your discussion should be specific and on point. Don't resort to vague discourse, which is so prevalent in college papers these days. Finally, your analysis and report should be error free."

Sherry exclaimed, "Wow! This is going to be challenging!"

Adams laughed again and stood up. "Sherry, welcome aboard!"

After Mr. Adams left her cubicle, Sherry panicked. She called her friends who are still enrolled at the University of Houston-Downtown for help. Her friends (your team) agreed to help.

Requirements

Each team will use a unique dataset, which will be provided by the professor. To obtain your data, send the professor an email on the course website. He will send you a unique dataset attached to his reply. Since each dataset will be unique, only one member of each team may request a dataset. The professor will not provide a data set on the weekend. So, be proactive. Request your data now. Do not wait until the last minute to request your data!

Using the data provided by the professor, complete the analysis as directed by Mr. Adams. Write the report as instructed, and post the report in MS Word .docx format along with a single Excel workbook file on the assignment page of the course website. Only one student from each group may post the report and Excel workbook.

The report should be self contained. It should never make reference to the Excel workbook. So, cut and paste all of the important material from the workbook to the Word document (be judicious here). Consider creating tables in your report that summarize your analysis. Each exhibit that appears in the report must be discussed in the report. Furthermore, please be advised that the report will be evaluated for content and presentation. Failure to provide all of the required elements of the report or workbook will result in substantial point deductions. Finally, the Excel workbook must provide all of your analysis. It should be well organized and labeled. If the report discusses analysis that is not included in the workbook, you will lose points.