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The Human Population Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Key Concepts ▪ Factors affecting human population size – Birth, death, fertility, migration, age ▪ Challenge: Managing population growth 2 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Why I s D emography I mportant ? ▪ Size, composition, distribution of human populations ▪ Causes and consequences of changes in human populations ▪ Health, social, economic, environmental consequences 3 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Effects of Birth and Death Rates ▪ Crude B irth R ate – N umber of live births per 1000 people ▪ Crude D eath R ate – N umber of deaths per 1000 people Population Change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) 4 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Crude Birth and Death Rates (2011) 5 Source: Data from Population Reference Bureau Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. How F ast Is the W orld’s P opulation G rowing ? ▪ 1.2% annual population growth (2014) ▪ Slower than in 1963 but still dangerously fast ▪ Doubling time – Doubling time (years) 70 / percent growth – 2014: 58 years 6 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. How H ave G lobal F ertility R ates C hanged ? ▪ Replacement - L evel F ertility – Number of children per couple to maintain population size ▪ Total F ertility R ate (TFR) – Average number of children born to a woman during reproductive years 7 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Decline in Total Fertility Rates (1950–2011) 8 Source: Data from United Nations and Population Reference Bureau Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. UN World Population Projections 9 Source: Data from United Nations Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Demographic Comparison (2013-2014) 10 Source: Data from U.S. Census Bureau and Population Reference Bureau Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Factors Affecting Birth and Fertility Rates ▪ Children in the labour force ▪ Cost of raising and educating children ▪ Availability of pension systems ▪ Urbanization ▪ Education and employment for women ▪ Infant mortality rate ▪ Average marrying age ▪ Availability of legal abortions ▪ Availability of birth control 11 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Contraception and Birth Rate 12 Source: Data from Alan Guttmacher Institute, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, and the United Nations Population Division Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Factors Affecting Death Rates ▪ Increased food supplies ▪ Better nutrition ▪ Advances in medicines ▪ Improved sanitation ▪ Safer water supplies Life expectancy Infant mortality rate 13 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Growth in Canada ▪ Growth may stabilize between 2030 and the end of century . ▪ Fifty percent of Canadian mothers are over the age of 30 . ▪ Total fertility rate is now below minimum for replacement . ▪ By 2031, 1/4 of the population will be over the age of 65 . ▪ Immigration remains crucial . – Most migrants are drawn to larger cities . – Today, about half of the people in Toronto and Vancouver are visible minorities . 14 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Growth in Canada 15 Source: Statistics Canada, Population urban and rural, by province and territory, http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo62a-eng.htm Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Shift in Canada 16 Source: Statistics Canada, Population urban and rural, by province and territory, http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo62a-eng.htm Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Projections for Canada 17 Source: Statistics Canada, Population urban and rural, by province and territory, http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo62a-eng.htm Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Types of Population Age Structures 18 Source: Data from Population Reference Bureau Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Age Structure in Developed vs . Developing Countries 19 Source: Data from United Nations Population Division and Population Reference Bureau Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Canada and the United States : They’re Not the Same 20 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Age Structure in North America:

The Baby Boom 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Database Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Canada Has High Local Population Density 22 Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Demographics at a Glance; CIA World Factbook Canada 2012 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Age Structure: Global Aging 23 Source: Data from the United Nations Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Decline from Reduced Fertility ▪ Rise in population of elderly ▪ Consume larger share of health care ▪ Consume larger share of pensions ▪ Labour shortages ▪ Low taxation revenues make pension funding difficult . 24 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Population Decline from Rising Death Rates The AIDS Tragedy ▪ 278 million premature deaths in 50 years ▪ Largely kills young adults ▪ Sharp drop in average life expectancy ▪ High numbers of orphans ▪ Shortage of productive workers to support elderly and young 25 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Influencing Population Size:

Should W e B e R educing B irth R ates ? ▪ Optimum sustainable population ▪ Cultural carrying capacity ▪ Personal rights and freedoms vs . ▪ Ability to sustain adequate living conditions 26 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Influencing Population Size:

Family Planning ▪ Educational and clinical services – Birth spacing – Birth control – Health care ▪ Responsible for 55% drop in TFR in developing nations (1960–2008) – But 42% of all pregnancies still unplanned 28 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Influencing Population Size:

Family Planning Case Study: Iran ▪ 1979 : Removal of family planning program ▪ Growth rate increased to 4.4% ▪ 1989: New family planning program – Requires couples to take a contraception class before marriage – Increased female literacy ▪ 2013 : Growth rate only 1.4% 29 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Influencing Population Size:

The Key Is Empowering Women ▪ Women tend to have fewer children if they are – Educated – Employed outside the home – Granted civil rights 30 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Influencing Population Size:

The Key Is Empowering Women 31 The typical unpaid workday for a woman in rural Africa leaves little time for education. Source: Data from the United Nations Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Case Studies:

India and China 32 Source: Data from United Nations and Population Reference Bureau Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India ▪ Generally disappointing results – Poor planning – Bureaucratic inefficiency – Low status of women – Extreme poverty – Lack of administrative or financial support ▪ Population continues to increase rapidly – Increased by 20 million in 2013 – Women have an average of 2.6 children 33 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China ▪ Government-enforced one-child policy – Economic initiatives – Free contraception and care – Preferential treatment to family and child – Local administration – Strict state controls ▪ Population predicted to peak in 2040 and then slowly decline . 34 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. What C an W e D o to S low P opulation G rowth ? ▪ Universal access to family planning and health care ▪ National population policies ▪ Improve status of women ▪ Increase education, particularly for girls ▪ Increase male involvement in parenting ▪ Reduce poverty ▪ Reduce unsustainable consumption 35 Copyright © 2017 by Nelson Education Ltd. Conclusion ▪ Controlling human population growth is a key factor in environmental and economic sustainability . ▪ Our track record is mixed—some successes, some disappointments . ▪ The key is empowering women . 36