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1What happens if robots take the jobs?
The impact of emerging technologies on
employment and public policy
By Darrell M. West
INTRODUCTION
I
realized something dramatic was happening when my assistant Hillary came to me with an
unusual experience. I had asked her to reschedule an appointment and she had emailed Amy,
the personal assistant of the individual on my calendar. Amy was amazingly prompt in her
follow-up. Hillary was on vacation and when
Amy didn’t get an immediate response, she
emailed my assistant multiple times over the
weekend trying to find a date that would work. 1
It was only at this point that Hillary noticed Amy
was a “virtual assistant.” Working for an artifi -
cial intelligence firm that schedules meetings,
Amy performed the tasks of a human assistant
who read emails, discerned intent, and came
up with a relevant response. Other than the
artificial intelligence title on her signature line,
and her extraordinary persistence and follow-
through on weekends, there was nothing in
the exchange that would have led anyone to
conclude the correspondent was not human.
In reflecting on this experience, I realized that a
virtual assistant trained in intelligent response
is not a futuristic vision. Rather, it is a current
reality that performs quite well. This and other automated tools are no longer at the cutting edge
of new technology. Rather, robots, artificial intelligence, computerized algorithms, mobile sensors,
Darrell M. West is vice president and director of Governance Studies and founding director of the Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings. His studies include technology policy, electronic government, and mass media.
[R]obots, artificial intelligence,
computerized algorithms,
mobile sensors, 3-D printing,
and unmanned vehicles are
here and transforming human
life. People can decry these
developments and worry
about their “dehumanizing
impact,” but we need to
determine how emerging
technologies are affecting
employment and public
p o l i c y.
O 2 What happens if robots take the jobs? 2
3-D printing, and unmanned vehicles are here and transforming human life. People can decry these developments
and worry about their “dehumanizing impact,” but we need to determine how emerging technologies are affecting
employment and public policy.
In this paper, I explore the impact of robots, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. In particular, I study the
impact of these emerging technologies on the workforce and the provision of health benefits, pensions, and social
insurance. If society needs fewer workers due to automation and robotics, and many social benefits are delivered
through jobs, how are people outside the workforce for a lengthy period of time going to get health care and pensions?
There are profound questions for public policy based on emerging technologies, the changing nature of the work -
force, and the differential impact on various demographic groups. We need to reconfigure the social contract and
figure out how to deliver social benefits in the new economy that is unfolding.
Current approaches linked to full-time jobs will be insufficient if employment patterns change and society needs
fewer workers to perform basic tasks. We already have seen the impact of automation on blue-collar jobs and are
starting to see its impact spread to white-collar jobs. As computers become more sophisticated, creative, and ver -
satile, more jobs will be affected by technology and more positions made obsolete.
In this situation, there have to be ways for people to get health care, pension, disability, and income supplements
outside of full-time employment. Offering a basic income, revamping the earned income tax credit, providing activity
accounts for lifetime education and retraining, expanding corporate profit-sharing, and providing benefit credits for
worthy volunteerism represent ways to do this. We also need to reform school curricula so students aren’t being
trained for jobs that no longer exist and encourage continuing education and access to arts and culture for adults
so they can expand their horizons throughout their lives. Advanced economies need to determine ways to avoid a
permanent underclass with limited financial prospects or employment possibilities.
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
The list of new technologies grows every day. Robots, augmented reality, algorithms, machine-to-machine commu -
nications, 3-D printing, and autonomous vehicles help people with a range of different tasks. 2 These technologies
are broad-based in their scope and significant in their ability to transform existing businesses and personal lives.
They have the potential to ease people’s lives and improve their personal and business dealings. 3 In his book, “Pax
Technica,” political scientist Philip Howard outlines an “empire of bits” that is transforming how people interact with one
another. 4 Technology is becoming much more sophisticated and this is having a substantial impact on the workforce.
RO BOTS
Robots are expanding in magnitude around the developed world. Figure 1 shows the numbers of industrial robots in
operation globally and there has been a substantial increase in the past few years. In 2013, for example, there were
an estimated 1.2 million robots in use. This total rose to around 1.5 million in 2014 and is projected to increase to
about 1.9 million in 2017. 5 Japan has the largest number with 306,700, followed by North America (237,400), China
(182,300), South Korea (175,600), and Germany (175,200). Overall, robotics is expected to rise from a $15 billion
sector now to $67 billion by 2025. 6 What happens if robots take the jobs? 3
According to an RBC Global Asset Management study,
the costs of robots and automation have fallen sub -
stantially. It used to be that the “high costs of industrial
robots restricted their use to few high-wage industries
like the auto industry. However, in recent years, the
average costs of robots have fallen, and in a number
of key industries in Asia, the cost of robots and the unit
costs of low-wage labor are converging … Robots now
represent a viable alternative to labor.” 7
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency held
a competition for a robot that could perform in hazardous
environments. Robots were given eight tasks such as
“driving a vehicle, opening a door, operating a portable
drill, turning a vale and climbing stairs.” 8 The goal was
to have equipment that could operate in damaged nuclear reactors or disaster scenes too dangerous for humans to
operate. A Korean team won the competition (with a $2 million first prize) for completing these tasks.
In the contemporary world, there are many robots that perform complex functions. According to a presentation on
robots, “the early 21st century saw the first wave of companionable social robots. They were small cute pets like
AIBO, Pleo, and Paro. As robotics become more sophisticated, thanks largely to the smart phone, a new wave of
social robots has started, with humanoids Pepper and Jimmy and the mirror-like Jibo, as well as Geppetto Avatars’
software robot, Sophie. A key factor in a robot’s ability to be social is their ability to correctly understand and respond
to people’s speech and the underlying context or emotion.” 9
These machines are capable of creative actions. Anthropologist Eitan Wilf of Hebrew University of Jerusalem says
that sociable robots represent “a cultural resource for negotiating problems of intentionality.” 10 He describes a “jazz-
improvising humanoid robot marimba player” that can interpret music context and respond creatively to improvisations
on the part of other performers. Designers can put it with a jazz band, and the robot will ad lib seamlessly with the
rest of the group. If someone were listening to the music, that person could not discern the human from the robot
performer.
In Japan, there is a new hotel called Henn-na that uses robots to check people in and escort guests to their rooms.
The robotic receptionist speaks Japanese or English, depending on the preferences of the guest. It can set up the
reservations for people, take them to their rooms, and adjust the accommodation’s temperature. Within the room,
guests can use voice commands to alter the lighting and ask questions regarding the time or weather. 11
Amazon has organized a “picking challenge” designed to see if robots can “autonomously grab items from a shelf
and place them in a tub.” The firm has around 50,000 people working in its warehouses and it wants to see if robots
can perform the tasks of selecting items and moving them around the warehouse. During the competition, a Berlin
robot successfully completed ten of the twelve tasks. To move goods around the facility, the company already uses
15,000 robots and it expects to purchase additional ones in the future. 12
2017
2014
2013
1.2 million
1.5 million1.9 million
Figure 1: Number of
Industrial Robots Around
the W orld What happens if robots take the jobs? 4
In the restaurant industry, firms are using technology to remove humans from parts of food delivery. Some places,
for example, are using tablets that allow customers to order directly from the kitchen with no requirement of talking
to a waiter or waitress. Others enable people to pay directly, obviating the need for cashiers. Still others tell chefs
how much of an ingredient to add to a dish, which cuts down on food expenses. 13
Other experimentalists are using a robot known as Nao to help people deal with stress. In a pilot project called
“Stress Game,” Thi-Hai-Ha Dang and Adriana Tapus subject people to a board game where they have to collect as
many hand objects as they can. During the test, stress is altered through game difficulty and noises when errors
are made. The individuals are wired to a heart monitor so that Nao can help people deal with stress. When the robot
feels human stress levels increasing, it provides coaching designed to decrease the tension. Depending on the
situation, it can respond in empathetic, encouraging, or challenging ways. In this way, the “robot with personality” is
able to provide dynamic feedback to the experimental subjects and help them deal with tense activities. 14
COMPUTERIZED ALGORITHMS
There are computerized algorithms that have taken the place of human transactions. We see this in the stock
exchanges, where high-frequency trading by machines has replaced human decision-making. People submit, buy,
and sell orders, and computers match them in the blink of an eye without human intervention. Machines can spot
trading inefficiencies or market differentials at a very small scale and execute trades that make money for people. 15
Some individuals specialize in arbitrage trading, whereby the algorithms see the same stocks having different market
values. Humans are not very efficient at spotting price differentials but computers can use complex mathematical
formulas to determine where there are trading opportunities. Fortunes have been made by mathematicians who
excel in this type of analysis. 16
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Artificial intelligence refers to “machines that respond
to stimulation consistent with traditional responses from
humans, given the human capacity for contemplation,
judgment and intention.” 17 It incorporates critical reasoning
and judgment into response decisions. Long considered
a visionary advance, AI now is here and being incorpo -
rated in a variety of different areas. It is being used in
finance, transportation, aviation, and telecommunications.
Expert systems “make decisions which normally require
human level of expertise.” 18 These systems help humans
anticipate problems or deal with difficulties as they come up.
There is growing applicability of artificial intelligence in many industries. 19 It is being used to take the place of humans
in a variety of areas. For example, it is being used in space exploration, advanced manufacturing, transportation,
energy development, and health care. By tapping into the extraordinary processing power of computers, humans
can supplement their own skills and improve productivity through artificial intelligence.
Long considered a visionary
advance, AI now is here and
being incorporated in a variety of
different areas. It is being used in
finance, transportation, aviation, and
telecommunications. What happens if robots take the jobs? 5
Using handheld devices
or sensors, they can move
through buildings, simulate
battle conditions, role play
disaster responses, or
immerse themselves in virtual
reality.
AUGMENTED REALITY
Augmented reality is bringing 3-D technologies and graphic displays to human existence. For example, Facebook’s
Oculus, Google’s Magic Leap, and Microsoft’s HoloLens represent consumer examples of this development. They
enable people to supplement the usual senses with computer-
generated graphics, video, sounds, or geo-location information.
These images can be mapped to the physical world and made
interactive for the user.
People can mount displays on their heads or stand in a digital
lab where images are projected onto the wall. Using handheld
devices or sensors, they can move through buildings, simulate
battle conditions, role play disaster responses, or immerse them -
selves in virtual reality.
Some of the most advanced applications have come from the
military. Its planners use augmented reality to train recruits for
street patrols and battle conditions. Supervisors can alter virtual conditions and see how the soldiers respond. This
allows them to “experience” a wide range of circumstances from the safety of the lab. 20 That helps them navigate
actual battlefields once they are sent abroad.
MEDICAL SENSORS AND MACHINE-TO-MACHINE
COMMUNICATIONS
Machine-to-machine communications and remote monitoring sensors that remove humans from the equation and
substitute automated processes have become popular in the health care area. There are sensors that record vital
signs and electronically transmit them to medical doctors. For example, heart patients have monitors that compile
blood pressure, blood oxygen levels, and heart rates. Readings are sent to a doctor, who adjusts medications as the
readings come in. According to medical professionals, “we’ve been able to show significant reduction” in hospital
admissions through these and other kinds of wireless devices. 21
There also are devices that measure “biological, chemical, or physical processes” and deliver “a drug or intervention
based on the sensor data obtained.” 22 They help people maintain an independent lifestyle as they age and keep them
in close touch with medical personnel. “Point-of-care” technologies keep people out of hospitals and emergency
rooms, while still providing access to the latest therapies.
Implantable monitors enable regular management of symptoms and treatment. For example, “the use of pulmonary
artery pressure measurement systems has been shown to significantly reduce the risk of heart failure hospitaliza -
tion.” 23 Doctors place these devices inside heart failure patients and rely upon machine-to-machine communications
to alert them to potential problems. They can track heart arrhythmia and take adaptive moves as signals spot
troublesome warning signs.
Automated machines are being integrated into health care in several different respects. Some people are relying
upon “rehabilitation robots” to aid people with specific tasks. Service robots meanwhile help people personalize
their treatment and deal with health, safety, and mobility issues. Companion robots attempt to improve quality of life What happens if robots take the jobs? 6
through interactivity and socialability. 24 In conjunction with wired “smart homes”, it is possible integrate robots into
the day-to-day lives of senior citizens and improve their medical treatment.
3-D PRINTING
Additive printing is a way for software to send design plans to specialty printers and have those devices make exact
copies of those goods or products. Used in the manufacturing area for things composed of a single material, this
has transformed product manufacturing and delivery, and altered global supply chains. Companies that used to
make something in one place and ship it thousands of miles to another location now can reduce shipping logistics
dramatically. They can email the specifications anywhere around the globe and have machines make a copy for
the customer and have the product immediately available to that person or organization.
Right now, this technology is limited to simple items made of a single material such as plastic or metal. However, in
the future, 3-D’s impact will grow as design specifications become more multi-faceted and companies are able to
print things composed of more than one material. That will exponentially expand the market for additive printing and
make it much easier to transform production. Fewer design people and factory workers will be needed in this situation.
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
Unmanned vehicles and autonomous drones are creating new markets for machines and performing functions
that used to require human intervention. Driverless cars represent one of the latest examples. Google has driven
its cars almost 500,000 miles and found a remarkable level of performance. Manufacturers such as Tesla, Audi,
and General Motors have found that autonomous cars experience fewer accidents and obtain better mileage than
vehicles driven by people. 25
Unmanned drones are being used for a variety of purposes. In India, for example, authorities are using them for
crowd control. Whenever there is extensive violence or mob attacks, police deploy drones armed with pepper spray
and cameras, and use them to disperse crowds and round up troublemakers. 26 Law enforcement officials claim
these devices have been very effective at helping to restore order.
They also are being used in real estate, agriculture, entertainment, and wildlife management. People employ them to
photograph property, monitor pest infestations in crops, and manage wildlife sanctuaries. 27 This helps officials get to
hard-to-reach areas and track problems autonomously without humans having to be in particular geographic spots.
IMPACT ON THE WORKFORCE
The rapid increase in emerging technologies suggests that they are having a substantial impact on the workforce.
Many of the large tech firms have achieved broad economic scale without a large number of employees. For example,
Derek Thompson writes that “Google is worth $370 billion but has only about 55,000 employees – less than a tenth
the size of AT&T’s workforce in its heyday [in the 1960s].” 28 According to economist Andrew McAfee, “we are facing
a time when machines will replace people for most of the jobs in the current economy, and I believe it will come not
in the crazy distant future.” 29 What happens if robots take the jobs? 7
In a number of fields, technology is substituting for labor, and this has dramatic consequences for middle class jobs
and incomes. Cornell University engineer Hod Lipson argues that “for a long time the common understanding was
that technology was destroying jobs but also creating new and better ones. Now the evidence is that technology is
destroying jobs and indeed creating new and better ones but also fewer ones.” 30
Martin Ford issues an equally strong warning. In his book, “The Lights in the Tunnel,” he argues that “as technology
accelerates, machine automation may ultimately penetrate the economy to the extent that wages no longer provide
the bulk of consumers with adequate discretionary income and confidence in the future. If this issue is not addressed,
the result will be a downward economic spiral.” 31 Continuing, he warns that “at some point in the future–it might be
many years or decades from now–machines will be able to do the jobs of a large percentage of the ‘average’ people
in our population, and these people will not be able to find new jobs.”
Firms have discovered that robotics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can replace humans and improve
accuracy, productivity, and efficiency of operations. During the Great Recession, many businesses were forced
to downsize their workforce for budgetary reasons. They had to find ways to maintain operations through leaner
workforces. One business leader I know had 500 workers for his $100 million business and now has the same size
workforce even though the company has grown to $250 million in revenues. He did this by automating certain func -
tions and using robots and advanced manufacturing techniques to operate the firm.
-10000
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Manufacturing
Federal gov't
Agricultur
e
Information Mining
Tr ansportation Trade Education Finance
State/local gov'
t
Leisure
Construction
Professional services
Health care
Figure 2: Future employment projections by sector
,
2012-2022 (in millions) What happens if robots take the jobs? 8
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) compiles future employment projections. In its most recent analysis, the
agency predicts that 15.6 million new positions will be created between 2012 and 2022. This amounts to growth of
about 0.5 percent per year in the labor force.
Figure 2 shows the distribution by sector for that period. The health care and social assistance sector is expected
to grow the most with an annual rate of 2.6 percent. This will add around 5 million new jobs over that decade. That
is about one-third of all the new jobs expected to be created. 32 Other areas that are likely to experience growth
include professional services (3.5 million), construction (1.6 million), leisure and hospitality (1.3 million), state and
local government (929,000), finance (751,000), and education (675,000).
Interestingly, in light of technology advances, the information sector is one of the areas expected to shrink in jobs.
BLS projections anticipate that about 65,000 jobs will be lost there over the coming decade. Even though technology
is revolutionizing many businesses, it is doing this by transforming operations, not increasing the number of jobs.
Technology can boost productivity and improve efficiency, but do so by reducing the number of employees needed
to generate the same or even higher levels of production.
Manufacturing is another area thought to lose jobs. The BLS expects the U.S. to lose 550,000 jobs, while the federal
government will shed 407,000 positions, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting will drop 223,000 jobs. 33 These
sectors are the ones thought to be least likely to generate new positions in the coming decade.
Since BLS projections make few assumptions about emerging technologies, it is likely that their numbers underes -
timate the disruptive impact of these developments. It is hard to quantify the way that robots, artificial intelligence,
and sensors will affect the workforce because we are in the early stages of the technology revolution. It is hard to
be definitive about emerging trends because it is not clear how new technologies will affect various jobs.
But there are estimates of the likely impact of computerization on many occupations. Oxford University researchers
Carl Frey and Michael Osborn claim that technology will transform many sectors of life. They studied 702 occupa -
tional groupings and found that “47 percent of U.S. workers have a high probability of seeing their jobs automated
over the next 20 years.” 34
According to their analysis, telemarketers, title examiners, hand sewers, mathematical technicians, insurance under -
writers, watch repairers, cargo agents, tax preparers, photographic process workers, new accounts clerks, library
technicians, and data-entry specialists have a 99 percent of having their jobs computerized. At the other end of the
spectrum, recreational therapists, mechanic supervisors, emergency management directors, mental health social
workers, audiologists, occupational therapists, health care social workers, oral surgeons, supervisors of fire fighters,
and dieticians have less than a one percent chance of having their tasks computerized. They base their analysis of
improving levels of computerization, wage levels, and education required in different fields. 35
In addition, we know that fields such as health care and education have been slow to embrace the technology
revolution, but are starting to embrace new models. Innovations in personalized learning and mobile health mean
that many schools and hospitals are shifting from traditional to computerized service delivery. Educators are using
massive, open, online courses (MOOCs) and tablet-based instruction, while health care providers are relying on
medical sensors, electronic medical records, and machine learning to diagnose and evaluate health treatments. What happens if robots take the jobs? 9
“[I]f current trends continue,
it could well be that a
generation from now a
quarter of middle-aged men
will be out of work at any
given moment.” — Former
U.S. Treasury Secretary
Lawrence Summers
Hospitals used to be staffed with people who personally delivered the bulk of medical treatment. But health pro -
viders now are storing information in electronic medical records and data sharing networks are connecting lab tests,
clinical data, and administration information in order to promote greater efficiency. Patients surf the web for medical
information and supplement professional advice with online resources. Both education and health care sectors are
seeing the disruption that previously has transformed other fields.
Given the uncertainties surrounding job projections, it is not
surprising that experts disagree over the impact of emerging
technologies. For example, in their highly acclaimed book, “The
Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of
Brilliant Technologies,” economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew
McAfee argue that technology is producing major changes in the
workforce. According to them, “technological progress is going to
leave behind some people, perhaps even a lot of people, as it races
ahead. As we’ll demonstrate, there’s never been a better time to be
a worker with special skills or the right education because these
people can use technology to create and capture value. However,
there’s never been a worse time to be a worker with only ‘ordinary’
skills and abilities to offer, because computers, robots, and other
digital technologies are acquiring these skills and abilities at an extraordinary rate.” 36
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers is equally pessimistic about the employment impact. He argues
that “if current trends continue, it could well be that a generation from now a quarter of middle-aged men will be out
of work at any given moment.” From his standpoint, “providing enough work” will be the major economic challenge
facing the world. 37
However, some economists dispute these claims. They recognize that many jobs will be lost through technology
improvements, but say that new ones will be created. There may be fewer people sorting items in a warehouse
because machines can do that better than humans. But jobs analyzing big data, mining information, and managing
data sharing networks will be created. According to those individuals, the job gains and losses will even out over the
long run. In future decades, work will be transformed but humans still will be needed to manage the digital world.
For example, MIT economist David Autor has analyzed data on jobs and technology but “doubts that technology
could account for such an abrupt change in total employment…The sudden slowdown in job creation is a big puzzle,
but there’s not a lot of evidence it’s linked to computers.” 38 In the same vein, Harvard economist Richard Freeman is
“skeptical that technology would change a wide range of business sectors fast enough to explain recent job numbers.” 39
Northwestern economist Robert Gordon takes an even stronger stance. He argues that “recent progress in computing
and automation is less transformative than electrification, cars, and wireless communication, and perhaps even indoor
plumbing. Previous advances that enabled people to communicate and travel rapidly over long distances may end
up being more significant to society’s advancement than anything to come in the twenty-first century.” 40 Based on
this reasoning, he does not anticipate dramatic workforce effects from emerging technologies, even though many
other experts already see the substitution of technology for labor. What happens if robots take the jobs? 10
A Pew Research Center study asked 1,896 experts about the impact of emerging technologies. Its researchers found
that “half of these experts (48 percent) envision a future in which robots and digital agents have displaced significant
numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers—with many expressing concern that this will lead to vast increases
in income inequality, masses of people who are effectively unemployable, and breakdowns in the social order.” 41
Another Pew project looked at public opinion on technology and found considerable unease about emerging trends.
Its national public opinion survey revealed that “65 percent think it would be a change for the worse if lifelike robots
become the primary caregivers for the elderly and people in poor health.” 42 In addition, people were sharply divided
on the emerging technology of driverless cars. When asked whether they would ride in a driverless car, 48 percent
said they would while 50 answered that they would not.
THE EFFECT ON VARIOUS DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS
The technology trends discussed here do not play out equally across all demographic groups. There are differential
impacts based on age, gender, income, race, and ethnicity. Certain individuals are more at risk than others from
emerging technologies and their ramifications for the workforce. It is quite clear that those with few technical skills
or specialty trades will face rough going in the future. 43
Young people, for example, face particular risks since they are at the beginning of their careers. 44 They are the ones
whose job experiences almost certainly will be affected by robotics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence.
Even though many of them have time to acquire relevant expertise, few are getting training in science, technology,
engineering, and math (STEM) fields. This limits their ability to withstand employment alterations through the acqui -
sition of scientific training. According to the U.S. Department of Education, there will be a 14 percent increase in
STEM jobs between 2010 and 2020. However, “only 16 percent of American high school seniors are proficient in
mathematics and interested in a STEM career.” 45
But job complications are not limited to young people. Women traditionally have entered positions that focus on
caregiving. With the aging population and the shift of jobs towards health care, that would appear to insulate people
employed in those areas from technological change. Yet digital technology is changing caregiving. Sensors and
remote monitoring devices record vital signs and electronically transmit them to health care providers. Wearable
technologies keep people in touch with friends and family members. The sick and infirm no longer require a human
being to measure certain conditions, but can do so through “intelligent family care assistants” that track their health. 46
One study calculated that 11 million seniors live by themselves in America. A number of these individuals use “an
emergency alert system for the elderly based on monitoring of their heart rates, breathing activities, and room
temperature measurements. The device also allows the dependents to make on demand request for assistance.” 47
Racial minorities face dismal job opportunities even in the best of times. Owing to discrimination, prejudice, and
lack of training, minorities and poor people already have high unemployment rates. And without high-skill training,
it will be difficult for them to adapt to the new economy where advanced machines take their jobs.
In addition, their ability to get training in digital technology is limited by uneven access to computers and high-speed
connectivity. An analysis of digital inequality shows that many of these individuals lack access to high-speed Internet,
and this creates difficulties for them in education and employment. 48 They are less likely to own smartphones, have What happens if robots take the jobs? 11
access to the Internet at home, and get detailed instruction in computing and software. That limits their ability to
adapt to the emerging realities of the 21 st century workforce.
IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY
In the classic Edward Bellamy book, “Looking Backwards,” protagonist Julian West wakes up from a 113 year
slumber and finds that the United States in 2000 is completely different from 1887. People stop working at age 45
and devote their lives to mentoring other people and contributing to the overall sense of community. 49 There are
shorter workweeks for ordinary people and everyone receives full benefits, food, and housing.
Similar to our time period, new technologies at that time enabled
people to be very productive in a short period of time. Society did
not need a large number of workers so people could devote much
of their lives to education, volunteerism, and community develop -
ment. In conjunction with these employment trends, public policy
shifted to encourage new lifestyles and ways of living.
In flash forwarding to the current era, we may be on the verge of
a similar technology transition. Robotics and machine learning
have improved productivity and enhanced the overall economy
of developed nations. Countries that have invested in innovation
have seen tremendous growth in overall economic performance.
In the future, it may be possible that society will not need as many
workers as seen today.
Yet unlike Bellamy’s utopia, there has been little public discussion
regarding the economic or policy impact of emerging technologies.
Observers worry that knowledge societies are destroying industrial and manufacturing jobs, and exacerbating social
and economic divisions. In its most pointed form, skeptics fear that technology will eliminate jobs, reduce incomes,
and create a permanent underclass of unemployable people. As argued by Nicolas Colin and Bruno Palier, “employ -
ment is becoming less routine, less steady, and generally less well remunerated. Social policy will therefore have
to cover the needs of not just outside the labor market but even many inside it.” 50
If technology innovation allows businesses to provide goods and services with far fewer employees, what will that
mean for workers? A significant increase in the number of people without full-time jobs would exacerbate divisions
within society and complicate the distribution of benefits such as pensions, health care and insurance Most benefits
are tied to employment so if the economy requires fewer workers due to technological advancement, we need to
consider how this will affect social benefit delivery.
In this section, I review short and long-term steps we should consider to deal with emerging technologies. This
includes thinking about how to deliver benefits outside of jobs, considering a basic income guarantee, revamping the
earned income tax credit, providing activity accounts for lifetime learning and job retraining, encouraging corporate
profit-sharing, providing benefit credits for volunteerism, making curricular reforms to assure that students have
Observers worry that
knowledge societies are
destroying industrial and
manufacturing jobs, and
exacerbating social and
economic divisions. In its
most pointed form, skeptics
fear that technology will
eliminate jobs, reduce
incomes, and create a
permanent underclass of
unemployable people. What happens if robots take the jobs? 12
the skills they need for a 21 st century economy, encouraging adult education and continuing learning, expanding
arts and culture for leisure time, and avoiding a permanent underclass suffering the ill effects of income inequality.
BENEFITS OUTSIDE OF JOBS
If we end up in a situation with many people are unemployed or underemployed for significant periods of time, we
need a way to provide health care, disability, and pension benefits outside of employment. Called “flexicurity” or
flexible security, this idea “separate(s) the provision of benefits from jobs.” 51 It offers health care, education, and
housing assistance on a universal basis.
Currently, people must work 60 percent of the time (around 24 hours a week) in order to qualify for fulltime benefits.
When they are fully employed, they are eligible for company-sponsored health care plans and pensions. During the
period since World War II, jobs have been a primary distribution system for social benefits. Except for the poor and
elderly, this keeps benefits outside of the public sector and places the onus on private companies.
That approach worked well in an era when most of the people who wanted jobs were able to get them. People with
limited skills were able to get well-paying jobs with benefits in factories, warehouses, and production facilities. They
could educate their children, achieve a reasonable standard of living, and guard against disabling illnesses.
The complication came when the economy shifted, wages stagnated, and technology made it possible for companies
to get by with fewer workers. The advent of robotics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and machine-to-machine
communications eliminated a number of jobs and put a number of people outside the typical workforce.
For health care, people need access to quality care through plans outside of employment. It is possible through com -
mercial insurers to purchase catastrophic insurance for extraordinary health claims. Or if people are poor or elderly,
there are government programs that guarantee access to medical care. The recent expansion of health insurance
through the Affordable Care Act has extended insurance to millions of people who previously lacked coverage.
In regard to retirement planning, many employers have moved to 401-style pension plans. Employees contribute to
their own funds and sometimes get a match from the employer. But this does not help those outside the workforce who
need retirement assistance. Even Social Security is tied to employment. People who haven’t worked are not eligible
for retirement benefits so we need to figure out ways to take care of those people in the newly emerging economy.
CONSIDERING A BASIC INCOME GUARANTEE
Given the possibility of persistent unemployment or underemployment, some have suggested it is time for a basic
income guarantee. Economist Philippe Van Parijs proposes that we should “pay each citizen a basic income that
would guarantee access to basic necessary goods.” 52 That would help those with few employment prospects obtain
basic subsistence without worry about homelessness or abject poverty.
Writer Ben Schiller argues that “a universal basic income is the bipartisan solution to poverty we’ve been waiting
for.” He claims that with jobs disappearing to robotics and worker wages stagnating, governments should provide “a
single payment that would give someone the chance to live reasonably.” He cites a Swiss referendum (that ultimately
was rejected by voters) setting the amount at $2,800 per month. 53 What happens if robots take the jobs? 13
British economist Robert Skidelsky says it is time for a basic income guarantee. He argues that “as robots increasingly
replace human labor, humans will need incomes to replace wages from work.” He claims that raising the minimum
wage will not be effective because it will lower the cost differentials of labor versus machines, and therefore speed
automation. 54
Critics of a basic income generally emphasize two reasons. First, they point out the value that work adds to human
worth. Many people define a significant part of their self-esteem through their employment. Even though a large
number report they are unhappy in their current position, jobs are vital to many people. Second, people worry about
a lack of work incentives in an income guarantee. Proposals must be structured in a way that balances payments
with work encouragement. Otherwise, people may stop working and do little to contribute to community goals.
Yet evidence from abroad shows that giving people basic money does not create dependency. According to Charles
Kenny of the Center for Global Development, providing a social safety net “may help lift people up and out of poverty.
Give poor people cash without conditions attached, and it turns out they use it to buy goods and services that improve
their lives and increase their future earnings potential.” 55
To deal with dependency questions, a basic income could be tied to volunteer activities or work requirements. Derek
Thompson cites the Works Progress Administration example from the 1930s of having “the government to pay
people to do something, rather than nothing.” 56 He suggests the creation of a “national online marketplace of work”
in which people could engage in projects that help the community. This could include tutoring, eldercare, childcare,
disaster response, or arts and culture work. That would enable individuals to contribute to the broader society while
earning a minimum income from the government.
REVAMPING THE EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT (EITC)
In their book “The Second Machine Age,” Brynjolfsson and McAfee propose an expansion of the earned income tax
credit as a way to provide income support while also giving people incentives to work. 57 As of 2014, the current policy
offers a tax credit of up to $6,143 for families with three or more children. As people make more money, the size of
the credit drops and gets phased out completely at income levels ranging from $40,000 to $55,000, depending on
marital status and number of children. 58
The goal of this proposal is to encourage people to work but make sure they have basic support for very low incomes.
According to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, around 26 million households receive around $60 billion in tax
refunds or reduced taxes. Data suggest that this policy made it possible for 6.5 million people to rise out of poverty. 59
Law Professor Cass Sunstein supports the EITC. He claims if properly devised that it would “reduce poverty, boost
employment, improve the health of infants and mothers, and increase the likelihood that people would graduate from
college.” 60 Raising this credit by around eight percent would yield major returns, he says.
For the EITC to be effective during a time of high unemployment, it needs to be revamped. Right now, most are not
eligible due to low-income limits. In addition, income transfers take place only once a year, at the time of tax filing
and refunds. If large numbers of people have no jobs and little income, the EITC would need to be configured and
applied to broader groups of people. Raising the income limit and making refunds and/or credits available on a
monthly basis would be required for it to address large-scale employment dislocations. What happens if robots take the jobs? 14
PROVIDE ACTIVITY ACCOUNTS FOR LIFETIME LEARNING AND
JOB RETRAINING
We should consider the establishment of activity accounts for lifetime learning and job retraining. In an era of fast
technology innovation and job displacement, there needs to be a means for people to gain new skills throughout their
adulthood. When people are employed, their companies could contribute a set amount to an individual’s fund. This
account could be augmented by contributions from the person him or herself as well as the government. Similar to
a retirement account, money in the fund could be invested tax-free in investment options including cash reserves,
stocks, and bonds. The owner of the account could draw on it to finance lifetime learning and job retraining expenses.
It would be portable, meaning that if the person moved or switched jobs, the account would migrate with that individual.
The goal of this account is to provide incentives for continuing education. Under virtually any scenario, people are
going to have to continue their education beyond the first 20 years of their lives. Emerging jobs are going to require
different skills than what people gain in school. There will be new jobs created that may not exist today. As pointed
out by Brookings Institution scholar Kemal Dervis, it will be crucial as technology innovation continues in the future
to provide people with a means to upgrade their skills and knowledge levels. 61 He notes that France has established
“individual activity accounts” that provide social benefits.
With the expected increase in leisure time, adults need time and financial support for continued learning. We shouldn’t
envision education merely as a time for young people to learn new skills or pursue areas of interest. Instead, we
need to think about education as a continuing activity that broadens people’s horizons over the course of their entire
lives. Education is an enrichment activity and we need to view it as a general benefit for the individual as well as
the society as a whole.
INCENTIVES FOR VOLUNTEERISM
The trends cited in this analysis suggest that we need to consider income supplements or benefit eligibility through
vehicles other than fulltime jobs. The workforce ramifications of emerging technologies means that many people in
the future may not be able to provide for their families through regular employment.
One possibility comes through volunteer activities. Even if people have limited employment options, many partici -
pate in a wide range of public-minded organizations. They help other people, train the next generation, or provide
assistance for the less fortunate in society.
A variety of survey evidence demonstrates that young people are particularly interested in volunteerism. In general,
they have different attitudes towards work and leisure time, and many say they want time to pursue outside activi -
ties. For example, a survey of American students found that they want “a job that focuses on helping others and
improving society.” In addition, they value quality of life considerations, not just financial well-being. 62
A number of them value volunteer activities outside of their work experience. They have varied interests and want
extra-curricular activities that fulfill them. This may involve tutoring in after-school programs, helping English as a
second language pupils, stopping domestic violence, protecting the environment, or encouraging entrepreneurship.
According to a Deloitte study, “63 percent of Millennials donate to charities and 43 percent actively volunteer or are
a member of a community organization.” 63 What happens if robots take the jobs? 15
In a digital world where there may be less work and more leisure time, it makes sense to think about incentives and
work credits for volunteerism. This could include credits towards social benefits or public rewards that acknowledge
community contributions. In the United Kingdom, for example, volunteers get reimbursed for expenses or earn
credits for job training programs through participation in worthy causes. In addition, volunteering counts as “looking
for work” so people can use those activities to qualify for national insurance credits. 64
Going forward, the United States should consider those types of incentives. In the future, people are likely to have
more time outside of employment so it makes sense to encourage them towards community engagement and give
them incentives to volunteer for non-profit organizations or charitable causes. This will benefit the overall community
and give people purposeful activities in which to engage.
ENCOURAGE CORPORATE PROFIT-SHARING
In an analysis of the American economy, Brookings scholars William
Galston and Elaine Kamarck note several problems that have
harmed working wages and overall prosperity. This includes rising
inequality, a shrinking middle class, a wedge between productivity
and compensation, business investment, and what they call the
“excessive financialization of the U.S. economy.” 65 They also note
problems related to stock buybacks, executive compensation, the
fixation on quarterly earnings, and the rise of activist investors.
Their critique dovetails with the concern of this paper over the
impact of emerging technologies on employment possibilities. If
robotics and machine learning are going to take many existing jobs
and create employment difficulties for people without advanced
technical skills, there is a looming crisis for society as a whole. The
combination of short- and long-term economic problems suggests
that we need to think about how to deliver social benefits and make
sure large numbers of people are not left behind permanently.
One longer-term option is to encourage corporate profit-sharing,
both for full and part-time people. A challenge of the current situ -
ation is how to provide financial support for people if few workers
are needed to provide necessary goods and services. Profit-sharing represents a way to spread the benefits of
improved productivity to a broader group of people. According to certain formulations, companies could provide up
to $5,000 in shared profits for employees making at least $50,000/year. 66 This would improve worker wages and
share more corporate profits. It won’t address the problems of people without jobs, but it would encourage greater
equity among a larger cross-section of the population.
CURRICULAR REFORM
In today’s world, it is important that schools don’t train students for jobs that won’t exist in the future. Economist
Andrew McAfee argues that “our education system is in need of an overhaul. It is frustrating that our primary education
If robotics and machine
learning are going to take
many existing jobs and create
employment difficulties for
people without advanced
technical skills, there is a
looming crisis for society as
a whole. The combination
of short- and long-term
economic problems suggests
that we need to think
about how to deliver social
benefits and make sure large
numbers of people are not
left behind permanently. What happens if robots take the jobs? 16
system is doing a pretty good job at turning out the kinds of workers we needed 50 years ago. Basic skills, the ability
to follow instructions, execute defined tasks with some level of consistency and reliability.” 67
What is needed, he said, are people who can do “things like negotiate, provide loving and compassionate care,
motivate a team of people, design a great experience, realize what people want or need, [and] figure out the next
problem to work on and how to solve it.” 68
A study of the future of work in the United Kingdom found that there is a “shrinking middle” in the workforce that
requires retraining. “People moving in and out of learning will continue. In particular, when people develop portfolio
careers, they need to be able to convert their qualifications or build upon the ones they have. Education has to come
up with the right package to solve these new demands.” 69
With the fast pace of technological change and the development of new kinds of positions in data analytics or
software coding, educational institutions that focus on traditional curricula are not providing young people with the
skills needed in the 21 st century economy. There has to be a close alignment of curricula and skills needed in the
workforce.
Vocational education and training systems are bringing students closer to the current needs of the labor market. This
will help young people have a smooth transition to jobs. They will show up with the particular skills that are needed
and be in a position to make contributions right away.
Many programs are focusing on collaboration and teamwork, not competition. Many contemporary positions involve
working together as part of teams so it is vital that people learn those skills. In addition, it is crucial that people
understand how to think critically and communicate their ideas to other people. If educational programs provide
these types of skills, it will help students in an era of extensive digital innovation.
EXPANDING ARTS AND CULTURE FOR LEISURE TIME
The so-called “end of work” may create a new kind of economy. According to Harvard economist Lawrence Katz,
“it’s possible that information technology and robots [will] eliminate traditional jobs and make possible a new artisanal
economy … an economy geared around self-expression, where people would do artistic things with their time.” 70
From his standpoint, this transition would move the world from one of consumption to creativity.
People will use their leisure time to pursue interests in arts and culture, or special areas that they follow. This could
include reading, poetry, music, or woodworking. Depending on their background, they could have more time for
family and friends. A study of family time found that macroeconomic conditions affect how much time people spend
together. When employment problems rise, “fathers spend more time engaging in enriching childcare activities” and
“mothers are less likely to work standard hours.” 71 As long as there are opportunities for people to pursue broader
interests, reduction in work does not have to eliminate chances for cultural pursuits.
NEXT STEPS
To summarize, advanced societies are at a major turning point in terms of how we think about work, leisure, and
social benefit delivery. If advanced economies need fewer workers to complete needed tasks, and benefits are What happens if robots take the jobs? 17
delivered mainly through full-time jobs, there is a danger that many people will have difficulties getting health care,
pensions, and the income maintenance they need to sustain their lives. This is of particular concern at a time of
large income inequality and highly skewed economic distributions. 72
The contrast between the age of scarcity in which we have lived
and the upcoming age of abundance through new technologies
means that we need to pay attention to the social contract. We
need to rewrite it in keeping with the dramatic shifts in employment
and leisure time that are taking place. People have to understand
we are witnessing a fundamental interruption of the current cycle
where people are paid for their work and spend their money on
goods and services. When a considerable portion of human labor
no longer is necessary to run the economy, we have to rethink
income generation, employment, and public policy. Our emerging
economic system means we will not need all the workers that we
have. New technologies will make these individuals obsolete and
unemployable.
In this situation, it is important to address the policy and leisure time issues raised by persistent unemployment or
underemployment. There is a danger of disruptions and unrest from large group of people who are not working. That
creates poverty and social dissatisfaction and runs the risk of instability for the society as a whole. Stability cannot
be enforced through a police presence or having wealthy individuals live in gated communities.
There needs to be ways for people to live fulfilling lives even if society needs relatively few workers. We need to
think about ways to address these issues before we have a permanent underclass of unemployed individuals. This
includes a series of next steps for society. There needs to be continuous learning avenues, opportunities for arts
and culture, and mechanisms to supplement incomes and benefits other than through fulltime jobs. Policies that
encourage volunteerism and reward those who contribute to worthy causes make sense from the standpoint of
society as a whole. Adoption of these steps will help people adapt to the new economic realities.
There needs to be ways
for people to live fulfilling
lives even if society needs
relatively few workers. We
need to think about ways
to address these issues
before we have a permanent
underclass of unemployed
individuals. What happens if robots take the jobs? 18
ENDNOTES
Note: I wish to thank Hillary Schaub for outstanding research assistance on this project.
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34 Quoted in Harold Meyerson, “Technology and Trade Policy is Pointing America Toward a Job Apocalypse,”
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35 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,”
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36 Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time
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53 Ben Schiller, “A Universal Basic Income is the Bipartisan Solution to Poverty We’ve Been Waiting For,” Fast
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54 Robert Skidelsky, “Minimum Wage or Living Income,” Project Syndicate , July 16, 2015.
55 Charles Kenny, “Give Poor People Cash,” The Atlantic , September 25, 2015.
56 Derek Thompson, “A World Without Work,” The Atlantic , July/August, 2015.
57 Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time
of Brilliant Technologies , W. W. Norton, 2014, pp. 238-9.
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60 Cass Sunstein, “A Poverty-Buster That’s No Liberal Fantasy,” Bloomberg View , August 13, 2015.
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63 Lindsey Pollack, “Attitudes and Attributes of Millennials in the Workplace,” September 12, 2014.
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66 Sam Frizell, “Here’s How Hillary Clinton Thinks Corporate Profit-Sharing Should Work,” Time, July 16, 2015.
67 Dawn Nakagawa, “The Second Machine Age is Approaching,” Huffington Post , February 24, 2015.
68 Dawn Nakagawa, “The Second Machine Age is Approaching,” Huffington Post , February 24, 2015.
69 United Kingdom Commission for Employment and Skills, “The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 20130,”
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70 Quoted in Derek Thompson, “A World Without Work,” Atlantic , July/August, 2015.
71 Melinda Sandler Morill and Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, “What Effects Do Macroeconomic Conditions Have on
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72 Darrell M. West, Billionaires: Reflections on the Upper Crust , Brookings Institution Press, 2014.
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