A policy informatic analyst is the second type of practitioner. Additionally, policy analysts must possess the capacity to understand how policies are made and implemented. The following are competenc

ITS 832 Chapter 4 Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World Information Technology in a Global Economy Introduction • Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World • Complexity • Managing Complex Systems • Modelling for Complex Systems Complexity • System composed of multiple interacting elements • Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to predict • Many complex systems in the physical world • Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long - term survival in complex systems • Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) Double Pendulum Example Common Mistakes in Managing Complex Systems • Quantification • Policy is biased towards easily quantifiable features • Most often, monetary quantification • Commonly overlooks important non -quantifiable aspect s • Compartmentalization • Attempts to simplify complex social systems • Large systems are split into smaller systems • Likely to miss interactions between smaller systems • Spillover effec t Complexity in Policy Making • Common approaches • Instrumental • Choosing between a set of possible policies • Evaluated based on past effectiveness • Requires • Large enough pool of available strategies • Effective assessment if effectivenes s • Representational • Series of models • Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior Instrumental Approach Representational Approach Agent - based Models • Represents individuals as separate models • Agents interact through a network • Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions • SIMSOC • Simulated Society • Modeling projects repository Summary • Complex systems are difficult to model • Interactions can be unpredictable • Common mistakes in modeling complex systems • Quantification • Compartmentalization • Two common approaches to complex system modeling • Instrumental • Representational • Agent -based modeling