Based on your analysis of the PRC-Taiwan scenario, prepare a narrative essay ranking the three hypotheses (from most likely to occur to the least likely to occur). Remember, ACH Step 7 is the most imp

ACH Steps Five and Six: (5) Eliminate Hypotheses” and (6) Identify Linchpin Evidence

Hypothesis 
 Evidence

 (H1a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved diplomatically.

(H1)
Political Solution

(H2)
Limited.
Intervention

(H3)
Direct Attack

 Evidence #1
Linchpin

Taiwan's current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) agreed to send representatives to the mainland to discuss the "current situation."

Comment: Shows the ability to try a diplomatic solution

(+)

(+)

(-)

 Evidence #2

Shu Chin-Chiang claims over the past 55 years, Taiwan and PRC have developed "unique, defining characteristics" causing each "entity" to take "divergent paths."

(+)

(+)

(-)

 Evidence #3

Hypothesis 
 Evidence

 (H1b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved diplomatically.

(H1)
Political Solution

(H2)
Limited.
Intervention

(H3)
Direct Attack

 Evidence #1

Taiwan's Central News Agency is reporting Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) has uncovered plans by the PRC to increase tensions between the two countries should Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) be elected.

(-)

(-)

(+)

 Evidence #2

Chen Shui-bian emphasizes this action is purely defensive and is designed to demonstrate Taiwan's ability to democratically elect a new president without any "external influence or intervention."

(+)

(+)

(-)

 Evidence #3

Missile tests have been ordered, it appears military action is more likely than diplomatic.

(-)

(-)

(+)

Hypothesis 
 Evidence

 (H2a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with limited intervention.

(H1)
Political Solution

(H2)
Limited.
Intervention

(H3)
Direct Attack

 Evidence #1

the US could not guarantee political, or let alone military support, should a confrontation with the PRC occur

(//)

(+)

(//)

 Evidence #2
Linchpin

Said one high ranking US official "should Shu claim independence, there is no way the US President will send US forces near Taiwan."
Comment: Directly states US forces will not be sent.

(-)

(+)

(//)

 Evidence #3

"Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) issued a statement that negotiations with the PRC were "progressing" and that Taiwan was contemplating lowering their military alert status as a sign of "goodwill."

(+)

(+)

(-)

Hypothesis 
 Evidence

 (H2b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with limited intervention.

(H1)
Political Solution

(H2)
Limited.
Intervention

(H3)
Direct Attack

 Evidence #1

Open source reporting suggests the PRC's Hu Jintao appealed directly to the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to intervene in the crisis.

(//)

(-)

(-)

 Evidence #2

The People's Daily, a newspaper of the CCP ran a series of articles criticizing the elections and the US’ silence on the issue, suggesting the elections may be part of a larger US plan to "bring war on the Chinese people."

(//)

(+)

(//)

 Evidence #3

During a televised press conference, President Obama cautioned Shu Chin-Chiang to accept the "status quo" by not (unnecessarily) increasing tensions in a politically charged environment.

(-)

(+)

(-)

Hypothesis 
 Evidence

 (H3a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with a direct attack.

(H1)
Political Solution

(H2)
Limited.
Intervention

(H3)
Direct Attack

 Evidence #1

The US Pacific Command reports Fighter Regiment patrols within the Taiwan Straits have increased by 50%.

(-)

(-)

(+)

 Evidence #2
Linchpin

The PLA has issued tentative mobilization orders to several air and ground units in the PRC. The orders are believed to be in preparation for deployment into the Nanjing Military District, which is located directly across from Taiwan.
Comment: Mobilization may lead to aggressive behavior and attacks.

(-)

(-)

(+)

 Evidence #3

USAF Electronic Intelligence reporting indicates the 96th Missile Regiment near Nanping is calibrating their equipment in preparation for a CSS-6 missile launch.

(-)

(-)

(+)

Hypothesis 
 Evidence

 (H3b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with a direct attack.

(H1)
Political Solution

(H2)
Limited.
Intervention

(H3)
Direct Attack

 Evidence #1

Despite the tenuous situation regarding the status of Taiwan, the PRC and Taiwan have significantly increased economic and cultural ties as both nations' economies have experienced tremendous growth.

(+)

(+)

(-)

 Evidence #2

 Evidence #3

Points Possible

Points Earned

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#8

#10

Timeliness

Were the indicators submitted on time (points subtracted)?

Possible

10.0

Earned