Imagine that you have been employed by the Los Angeles county police department to formulate strategies that create positive relations between the police and their communities. You will need to resear
Chief Fortenberyheads the Edenton,
North Carolina,
Police Departm ent.
Law E nforcem ent O rganizations:
P ossibilities and C hallenges for the Future
By Jay Fortenbery, M.J.A.
2/10/2016
Some previously legal activities are classified as illegal these
days, and a number of today’s crimes could be deemed lawful
in coming years. Law enforcement leaders must accept the
reality that change is inevitable, and preparing for it is an
ingredient for increasing success. Current indicators may help
organizations project what the future will hold for policing.
Looking back into the past is one way to understand the
influence of innovation on police operations; it may aid
departments in preparing for what comes next. Inventions
during the industrialization of the United States, such as the
automobile, telegraph, telephone, and electricity, dramatically
altered the way law enforcement organizations functioned.
Advances in photography, fingerprinting, and communications
helped create databases for recording criminal activity; these assist officers with the identification and apprehension of
suspects.
Since the 1980s progress in computer technology has placed vast amounts of information at the fingertips of police
officers. They have immediate access to current regional and national crime data and files on stolen items and wanted
suspects. Developments in DNA evidence and automatic fingerprint identification systems (AFIS) enable investigators to
solve cases that previously may have gone unsolved. Crimemapping software helps law enforcement administrators
use resources more effectively and efficiently by putting officers where crime patterns have emerged.
EXISTING TRENDS
W hen examining the possibilities and challenges for the future of law enforcement, it is important to contemplate existing
trends and predictions. One identified success due to advanced computer programs is the ability to forecast where crime
m ost likely will occur. Many police departments across the United States already use this sophisticated software.[1]
Large metropolitan areas, such as Los Angeles, California; Memphis, Tennessee; and New York, New York, currently
use “data based,” or “predictive policing,” strategies to reduce burglaries, robberies, thefts, and other criminal offenses.[2]
The main concept behind this type of law enforcement is as basic as amassing crime data and looking for identifiable
patterns to predict where new offenses probably will occur.[3] Supervisors use the information to assign officers in a
m ore logical manner to deter criminal activity.[4]
Predictive policing is an effective way to get better results with fewer resources.[5] Departments experiencing budget cuts S ince the 1980s
progress in com puter
technology has placed
vast am ounts of
inform ation at the
fingertips of police
officers.
C lo se q u o te s
Predictive policing is an effective way to get better results with fewer resources.[5] Departments experiencing budget cuts
and personnel reductions can position officers where they are needed most by using available crime data. As crime
tracking software becomes increasingly refined, accurate, and affordable, more agencies will employ the technology for
daytoday operations.
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
As new technology unfolds, law enforcement organizations must adapt techniques and amend policies to better serve
and protect communities. Invention of the motor vehicle and incar radio caused police to initiate motor patrols and
centralized dispatching. Likewise, tomorrow’s innovations will influence future police operations.
Crim e Mapping
Police agencies now have the ability to predict when and where crime most likely will occur.[6] There are strong
indicators that the reliability and accuracy of this technology will increase for future officers.[7] Police on patrol hoping to
catch a criminal in the act probably will become obsolete.[8]
Sophisticated crimemapping software can direct officers to locations where the greatest likelihood exists for preventing
crime or apprehending a suspect. Interactive websites provide instant information for citizens and police that raises
awareness to a new level.[9] Individuals can obtain crime data about a location before they arrive or uncover criminal
activity in their community without having to ask a police officer. Law enforcement managers can use this information
strategically to place patrols in areas where most offenses have occurred.
The National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) have
im plemented an operational model for law enforcement, DataDriven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS),
and have published guidelines for agencies to use in implementation.[10] This program evaluates existing crime data so
departments strategically can deploy officers where they need to be to reduce criminal activity and traffic safety
problems. This emerging technology is expected to continue to grow and progress in the future.
Lie Detection
Advances in neuroimaging raise confidentiality issues. The possibility exists for reliable, secret, and remote brainscan
liedetection systems.[11] Recent advances in imaging technology enable monitoring of brain activity without cranium
penetration, and some tests can measure this activity both externally and covertly.[12]
Although the law enforcement community may welcome the potential for this
im proved science, the implications for privacy laws are of concern.[13] If a police
officer unobtrusively can conduct a brain scan of a suspect to test for truthfulness
during an interview, the consequences for individual rights likely will come under
scrutiny.
In a recent case, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that the exterior measure of
temperature patterns emitted from a home did not constitute a police search.[14]
This case involved use of a plane equipped with infrared technology to measure
the escaping heat from a residence.[15] The resulting information regarding the
degree of warmth coming from the house led to a search warrant and the discovery
of an illegal narcoticsgrowing operation.[16] One justice concluded, “The patterns
of heat distribution on the external surfaces of a house are not information in which
the respondent had a reasonable expectation of privacy and offer no insight into the
person’s private life.”[17] This proposes the question of whether patterns of
electricity emanating from the brain could fall into the same category. The potential
for this type of technology brings the issue of reasonable expectation of individual
privacy to a new level of concern for the future.
This type of brainscan technique, using a process termed “brain fingerprinting,” suggests the potential to discover if
preexisting facts are present in the mind.[18] Instead of a truthorlie test, this procedure determines if a person already
knows certain information. For example, a detective could show photographs of a crime scene and establish if those
im ages already are present in the subject’s mind. This would indicate prior knowledge or could place a suspect at a
crime scene by determining if the memory of the event already exists in the individual’s brain.[19]
If this technology is fully developed, how will the information be used? W ill law enforcement personnel be the only users,
or will private entities gather and store data? W hat measures will be implemented to protect memories from criminals
intending to obtain personal information, bank codes, or passwords? Law enforcement organizations and the courts
m ust address these questions as they arise and the process advances.
DNA
Continuously progressing DNA mapping emerged in the mid1980s as a highly significant, reliable identification The investigative portion
of law enforcem ent has
Continuously progressing DNA mapping emerged in the mid1980s as a highly significant, reliable identification
process. Advances in this area enable recognition of individuals in criminal and missing person investigations. The
United States and China have a combined database containing over 32 million known samples.[20] These have
produced almost 600,000 positive matches, bringing closure to many cases.[21]
The future direction of DNA testing involves new technology combining several existing methods in a process termed
“m assively parallel sequencing (MPS).” This procedure will increase capacity by simultaneously sequencing DNA more
efficiently and accurately using a variety of techniques and types of evidence samples.[22] Advances in DNA processing
combined with increased knownsample databases will provide extensive possibilities for future investigations.
Unm anned Aerial Vehicles
Police, fire, and other emergency services can use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to transmit data over existing
wireless networks to gather valuable information from realtime reconnaissance during major incidents, such as toxic
chemical spills, gas leaks, large fires, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks.[23] UAVs equipped with air sensors and
video cameras can collect facts in these situations without risking the health and safety of rescue personnel.
As the potential for UAVs increases, so do the legal implications. Courts in several states temporarily have forbidden
operation of these vehicles pending safety studies.[24] For instance, the state of Illinois recently passed a law banning
law enforcement’s use of UAVs without a search warrant and approving use only in clearly defined emergency
situations.[25]
Surveillance
Video surveillance is becoming commonplace in municipalities worldwide, and law enforcement organizations are
capitalizing on this technology to effectively detect and dissuade criminal activity. Officers use these systems to identify
and apprehend suspects. A DOJ guide outlines best practices for the installation and use of video monitoring equipment.
[26] As technology improves, this will become a more widespread, essential asset for police.
M any agencies attributed the identification of suspects in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing to various public and
private videos that were active in the area.[27] The resolution and reliability of these systems are improving and
enhancing the vision of police departments. Additions, including license plate identification, facial recognition, and night
vision, continue to advance and increase the applications for law enforcement.[28]
The future of video surveillance is changing rapidly as systems affixed to buildings or poles are enhanced with cameras
attached to UAVs.[29] Court rulings regarding privacy issues and legal requirements for the operation of these vehicles
demand compliance of law enforcement agencies. The probability of UAVs filling the skies, transporting items, collecting
data, and conducting surveillance is high, and organizations must begin regulation and enforcement to protect the
public.
TRAINING OPTIONS
An important aspect of any law enforcement agency is continual training. Education is shifting from traditional
classrooms to online learning.[30] As baby boomers are beginning to retire, they are giving way to a new generation with
greater familiarity and dependence on technology. The disappearance of the classroom along with these boomers could
become reality, and the way police departments adapt to these evolving trends will change their future.[31]
M any companies use videogame programs to teach basic job functions, ranging from preparing food to installing
wireless networks. To teach and reinforce driving and tactical response, police academies could use advanced video
game technology, which is wellsuited to the new generation of officers. Some law enforcement agencies use firearms
training simulators (FATS) with conflicting results; however, technological advances provide more realistic and
interactive learning.
Increasing education costs and decreasing budgets could force law enforcement managers to consider alternative
training options to meet future needs.[32] There are some negative aspects to online instruction; for example, lack of
social interaction might affect personal communication skills. However, the cost and convenience could lead
administrators to employ it.[33] Although, to maximize training effectiveness, academies may consider a hybrid model
consisting of both online and traditional classroom learning.
CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS
The investigative portion of law enforcement has evolved significantly due to
technology. Crime fighters in the “Old W est” often did not have photographs of
culprits and had to base their arrests on physical descriptions or crude drawings.
Developments in photography changed police operations and investigations.
Subjects were photographed, and mug shot books were created, allowing crime
victims to search pictures in hopes of recognizing a perpetrator. Today, officers
collect photos, fingerprints, and DNA from suspects, significantly increasing the of law enforcem ent has
evolved significantly
due to technology.
C lo se q u o te s
...law enforcem ent
leaders can look at
current trends and
collect photos, fingerprints, and DNA from suspects, significantly increasing the
likelihood of positive identification. Due to advances in science and DNA with MPS,
it is beyond the imagination what future law enforcement professionals will be able
to accomplish.[34]
Polygraph technology is a standard tool for assisting investigators in seeking the
truth; however, many criminal courts do not recognize its accuracy or allow
submission of its results.[35] Precise, reliable brain scanning is a future possibility
for enabling police to look into a person’s mind and retrieve memories or thought
patterns.[36] Law enforcement organizations and the courts will have to monitor this
technology to ensure that officers employ it appropriately and others do not use it for illegal purposes.
INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE
As technological advances in communication bring the world closer together, the concept of international justice may be
a viable consideration and not just for extreme and heinous offenses. The principle requires agreements between
countries so criminals can be prosecuted across international borders. The Nuremberg Trials in 1945 marked the first
type of multinational court.[37] Four years later the 1949 Geneva Convention examined countries’ obligations to enact
legislation allowing effective penal sanctions for individuals charged with “grave breaches.”[38]
Between 1948 and 1976, the United Nations enacted treaties regarding racial discrimination, prejudice against women,
and the legal rights of children and more recently has recognized rape and sex offenses as crimes against humanity.[39]
As of May 1, 2013, 122 countries ratified the creation of the International Criminal Court (ICC), governed by the Rome
Statute and seated in the Netherlands.[40] The ICC already has heard international cases, and several have been
prosecuted and may serve as an effective deterrent for prospective war criminals and a warning for others to reduce
atrocious crimes in the future.[41]
Criminals across the globe use the Internet to conduct cybercrime and fraud that often is outside the scope and
jurisdiction of local and federal law enforcement. Organizations must work closely together and may need an
international court to oversee investigations and conduct trials that cross international borders. In the future stronger
alliances between countries could better serve everyone’s interests by combining resources to reduce crime and protect
victims.[42]
FUTURE LEADERS
Another concern for law enforcement is training and developing future leaders. Recruitment, preparation, and growth will
affect the success of police organizations.[43] Officers from the millennial generation— born between 1978 and 2000—
are replacing retiring baby boomers.[44] This new group has grown up in a world of instant information and
communication in an online environment much different from that of the boomer.[45]
At a police executives’ conference, a North Carolina Highway Patrol captain discussed the strengths and weaknesses of
the millennial generation.[46] This officer stressed that law enforcement administrators must recognize this group’s
online interaction and navigational knowledge as valuable assets to the organization.[47] W hen training new leaders,
m ethods should reflect the abilities and preferences of the learner, and the transformational leadership of the department
m ust recognize and accept change as the next generation takes the helm.[48]
W ELLNESS PROGRAMS
The motivation and productivity of future officers may revolve around wellbeing. Organizations are trying to reduce
workers’ compensation claim losses and high insurance rates by focusing on employee wellness programs.[49]
Sm oking cessation classes and mandated health exams are becoming requirements for lowering medical insurance
fees. Additionally, many police departments are considering physical and mental fitness testing for recruits and
incumbents. As health care costs increase and managers attempt to maximize staff efficiency and effectiveness, the
focus on wellness will continue.
Agencies are looking closer at health and wellbeing as ingredients for reduced stress and increased productivity among
personnel. Administrators recognize the importance of these programs because improved physical condition
strengthens performance and morale while reducing medical expenses for both the employee and the organization.[50]
The future of healthcare in the United States will have a significant influence on departmental fitness policies.[51]
CONCLUSION
Predicting the future is complicated and nearly impossible. Often, unforeseen and
uncontrollable measures dictate the direction of organizations. Terrorist activities
radically have transformed how police train and respond to events.
As laws change and technology evolves, some of today’s actions will not be
criminalized in the future. The war on drugs already has started to shift with the current trends and
existing technology to
begin thinking about
issues that could affect
the next generation of
officers and leaders.
C lo se q u o te s
criminalized in the future. The war on drugs already has started to shift with the
legalization of recreational marijuana in some states, which may continue across
the country in years to come. The repeal of Prohibition in 1933 caused officers to
m ove from enforcing the ban on alcohol to handling its effects and the public
nuisance and safetyrelated crimes it created. Similarly, making marijuana legal will
m odify the mission of police agencies and may reveal new problems associated
with its use.
Although predicting the future is difficult, law enforcement leaders can look at
current trends and existing technology to begin thinking about issues that could
affect the next generation of officers and leaders. A shift from classroom to online
learning to accommodate the new generation may become more pertinent in the near future.
Technological advances— DNA mapping, lie detection developments, UAVs, high resolution video surveillance systems,
crimemapping technology, and online learning— are clear indicators of issues that will alter the future of law
enforcement. To function effectively organizations will need to adapt, train, and incorporate response to change. On the
other hand, criminals will work continuously to circumvent progress as the struggle for law and order continues for years
to come.
For additional information the author may be contacted at jay.fortenbery@ edenton.nc.gov.
Endnotes
[1] Samuel Greengard, “Policing the Future,” Communications of the ACM, March 2012, accessed October 1, 2015,
http://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2012/3/146249policingthefuture/fulltext.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Ibid.
[9] “Crimemapping–Building Safer Communities,” The Omega Group, accessed July 28, 2015,
http://www.crimemapping.com/map.aspx; and “RAIDS (Regional Analysis and Information Data Sharing) Online,” BAIR
Analytics, accessed October 1, 2015, https://www.raidsonline.com.
[10] U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and U.S. Department of Justice,
Bureau of Justice Assistance and National Institute of Justice, DataDriven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety
(DDACTS) Operational Guidelines, DOT HS 811 185 version 1.1, August 2009, accessed October 1, 2015,
https://www.iadlest.org/Portals/0/Files/Documents/DDACTS/Docs/DDACTS% 20Operational% 20Guidelines% 20
% 20MASTER.pdf.
[11] Ian R. Kerr, Max Binnie, and Cynthia Aoki, “Tessling on My Brain: The Future of Lie Detection and Brain Privacy in
the Criminal Justice System,” Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice 50, no. 3 (June 2008): 367387,
accessed August 27, 2015, http://iankerr.ca/wpcontent/uploads/2011/08/tessling_on_my_ brain.pdf.
[12] Brad Evenson, “The Guilty Mind,” National Post, February 10, 2003, accessed July 28, 2015,
http://www.prisonplanet.com/news_alert_021003_general6.html.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Kerr, Binnie, and Aoki, “Tessling on My Brain.”
[15] Ibid.
[16] Ibid.
[17] Ibid; see also Kyllo v. United States, 533 U.S. 27 (2001), accessed December 21, 2015, https://supreme.justia.
com/cases/federal/us/533/27/case.html.
[18] Ibid. [18] Ibid.
[19] Ibid.
[20] Jianye Ge, Hongyu Sun, Haiyan Li, Chao Liu, Jiangwei Yan, and Bruce Budowle, “Future Directions of Forensic
DNA Databases,” Croatian Medical Journal 55, no. 2 (April 2014): 163166, accessed October 1, 2015,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4009716/pdf/CroatMedJ_55_0163.pdf.
[21] Ibid.
[22] Ibid.
[23] Kai Daniel and Christian W ietfeld, “Using Public Network Infrastructures for UAV Remote Sensing in Civilian
Security Operations,” Homeland Security Affairs, January 2011, accessed August 27, 2015, https://www.hsaj.org/
articles/71.
[24] Bill Smith, “Update to Biss Drone Bill Becomes Law,” Evanston Now (Evanston, Illinois), August 1, 2014, accessed
July 28, 2015, http://evanstonnow.com/story/government/billsmith/20140801/65157/updatetobissdronebill
becomeslaw.
[25] Ibid.
[26] U.S. Department of Justice, Community Oriented Policing Services, Using Public Surveillance Systems for Crime
Control and Prevention: A Practical Guide for Law Enforcement and Their Municipal Partners, Nancy G. La Vigne,
Samantha S. Lowry, Allison M. Dwyer, and Joshua A. Markman, September 2011, accessed October 1, 2015,
http://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/alfresco/publicationpdfs/412402UsingPublicSurveillanceSystemsforCrime
ControlandPreventionAPracticalGuideforLawEnforcementandTheirMunicipalPartners.PDF.
[27] W illiam Evans and Edward P. Deveau, “The Boston Marathon Bombing: Operational Overview and Lessons
Learned” (presentation at the North Carolina Police Executives Association 68th Annual Training Conference,
W ilmington, NC, July 23, 2014).
[28] U.S. Department of Justice, Community Oriented Policing Services, Using Public Surveillance Systems for Crime
Control and Prevention.
[29] Smith, “Update to Biss Drone Bill Becomes Law.”
[30] Jim Leal, “ELearning and Online Education: Implications for the Future of Law Enforcement Training,” W orld Future
Review 1, no. 3 (JuneJuly 2009): 2228.
[31] Ibid.
[32] Ibid.
[33] Ibid.
[34] Ge, Sun, Li, Liu, Yan, and Budowle, “Future Directions of Forensic DNA Databases.”
[35] David Gallai, “Polygraph Evidence in Federal Courts: Should It Be Admissible?” American Criminal Law Review 36,
no.1 (W inter 1999): 87116.
[36] Kerr, Binnie, and Aoki, “Tessling on My Brain.”
[37] Justice Richard Goldstone, “The 19th Annual McDonald Constitutional Lecture: The Future of International Criminal
Justice,” Review of Constitutional Studies 14, no. 1 (2009): 1–19, accessed October 1, 2015,
http://ualawccsprod.srv.ualberta.ca/ccs/index.php/reviewofconstitutionalstudies/457review14no1.
[38] Ibid.
[39] Ibid.
[40] International Criminal Court (ICC), accessed July 29, 2015, http://www.icccpi.int/EN_Menus/ICC/Pages/
default.aspx.
[41] Goldstone, The 19th Annual McDonald Constitutional Lecture.
[42] Ibid.
[43] Christopher Gergen and Gregg Vanourek, “Dynamic Organizations for an Entrepreneurial Age,” in The Organization
of the Future 2: Visions, Strategies, and Insights on Managing in a New Era, ed. Frances Hesselbein and Marshall
Goldsmith (San Francisco, CA: JosseyBass, 2009), 159173.
[44] Leal, “ELearning and Online Education.” Close
[44] Leal, “ELearning and Online Education.”
[45] Ibid.
[46] David Allen, “Generational Issues in Hiring, Retaining and Managing Employees” (presentation at the North
Carolina Police Executives Association 68th Annual Training Conference, W ilmington, NC, July 22, 2014).
[47] Ibid.
[48] Ibid.
[49] Daniel Mattos, “The Need to Promote CareerLong Vitality and W ellness in the Police Profession,” FBI Law
Enforcement Bulletin, October 2010, 1825, accessed July 29, 2015, https://leb.fbi.gov/2010/october/perspectivethe
needtopromotecareerlongvitalityandwellnessinthepoliceprofession.
[50] Ibid.
[51] Ibid. Copyright
ofFBI Law Enforcement Bulletinisthe property ofSuperintendent ofDocuments
and
itscontent maynotbecopied oremailed tomultiple sitesorposted toalistserv without
the
copyright holder'sexpresswrittenpermission. However,usersmayprint, download, or
articles forindividual use.