MacroEcon 2020 Data Attached
Financial Markets II Chapter 6 Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-2 Chapter 6 Outline Financial Markets II 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates 6 - 2 Risk and Risk Premia 6 - 3 The Role of Financial Intermediaries 6 - 4 Extending the IS - LM 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-3 Financial Markets II • Until now, we assumed that there were only two financial assets — money and bonds — and just one interest rate — the rate on bonds — determined by monetary policy. • The financial system also plays a major role in the economy. • This chapter looks more closely at the role of the financial system and its macroeconomic implications. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-4 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates • Nominal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of dollars. • Real interest rate is the interest rate in terms of a basket of goods. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-5 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates Figure 6 -1 Definition and Derivation of the Real Interest Rate Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-6 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates • One - year real interest rate r t: • Denote expected inflation between t and t + 1 by: so that equation (6.1) becomes Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-7 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates • If the nominal interest rate and expected inflation are not too large, a close approximately to equation (6.3) is: Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-8 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates • The real interest rate (1 − π e) is based on expected inflation, so it is sometimes called the ex - ante (“before the fact”) real interest rate . • The realized real interest rate (1 − π ) is called the ex - post (“after the fact”) interest rate . • The interest rate that enters the IS relation is the real interest rate. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-9 6 - 1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates Figure 6 -2 Nominal and Real One -Year T -Bill Rates in the United States since 1978 The nominal interest rate has declined considerably since the early 1980s, but because expected inflation has declined as well, the real rate has declined much less than the nominal rate. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-10 6 - 2 Risk and Risk Premia • Some bonds are risky, so bond holders require a risk premium. • Risk premia are determined by: – The probability of default – The degree of risk aversion of bond holders Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-11 6 - 2 Risk and Risk Premia Figure 6 -3 Yields on 10 -Year U.S. Government Treasury, AAA, and BBB Corporate Bonds, since 2000 In September 2008, the financial crisis led to a sharp increase in the rates at which firms could borrow. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-12 6 - 3 The Role of Financial Intermediaries • Until now, we have looked at direct finance — borrowing directly by the ultimate borrowers from the ultimate lenders. • In fact, much of the borrowing and lending takes place through financial intermediaries — financial institutions that receive funds from investors and then lend these funds to others. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-13 6 - 3 The Role of Financial Intermediaries Figure 6 -4 Bank Assets, Capital, and Liabilities • Capital ratio (the ratio of capital to assets) = 20/100 = 20% • Leverage ratio (the ratio of assets to capital) = 100/20 = 5 • A higher leverage ratio implies a higher expected profit rate, but also implies a higher risk of insolvency and bankruptcy. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-14 6 - 3 The Role of Financial Intermediaries • The lower the liquidity of bank assets means the more difficult they are to sell, the higher the risk of being sold at fire sale prices (prices far below the true value) and the risk that the bank becomes insolvent. • The higher the liquidity of the liabilities (e.g., checkable or demand deposits ), the higher the risk of fire sales, and the risk that the bank becomes insolvent and thus faces bank runs . Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-15 FOCUS: Bank Runs • The U.S. financial history up to the 1930s is full of bank runs, as seen in the classic movie It’s a Wonderful Life . • One potential solution to bank runs is narrow banking , which restricts banks from making loans, and to hold liquid and safe government bonds. • To limit bank runs, the United States introduced federal deposit insurance in 1934. • The Fed also implemented liquidity provision so that banks could borrow overnight from other financial institutions. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-16 6 - 4 Extending the IS - LM • Now we extend the IS - LM to reflect the distinction between:1. the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate 2. the policy rate set by the central bank and the interest rates faced by borrowers • Rewrite the IS - LM : where expected inflation π e and the risk premium x enter the IS relation. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-17 6 - 4 Extending the IS - LM • The central bank now chooses the real policy rate r , which enters the IS equation as part of the borrowing rate ( r + x ) for consumers and firms: where expected inflation π e and the risk premium x enter the IS relation. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-18 6 - 4 Extending the IS - LM Figure 6 -5 Financial Shocks and Output An increase in x leads to a shift of the IS curve to the left and a decrease in equilibrium output. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-19 6 - 4 Extending the IS - LM Figure 6 -6 Financial Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Output If sufficiently large, a decrease in the policy rate can in principle offset the increase in the risk premium.
The zero lower bound may however put a limit on the decrease in the real policy rate. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-20 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis Figure 6 -7 U.S. Housing Prices since 2000 The increase in housing prices from 2000 to 2006 was followed by a sharp decline thereafter. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-21 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • The 2000s were a period of unusually low interest rates, which stimulated housing demand. • Mortgage lenders was increasingly willing to make loans to risky borrowers with subprime mortgages , or subprimes . • From 2006 on, many home mortgages went underwater (when the value of the mortgage exceeded the value of the house). • Lenders faced large losses as many borrowers defaulted. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-22 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • Banks were highly leveraged because:
– Banks probably underestimated the risk, – Bank managers had incentives to go for high expected returns without fully taking the risk of bankruptcy, – Banks avoided financial regulations with structured investment vehicles (SIVs) • Securitization is the creation of securities based on a bundle of assets, such as mortgage - based securities (MBS) . Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-23 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • Senior securities have first claims on the return from the bundle of assets; junior securities, such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs ), come after. • Securitization was a way of diversifying risk, but it came with costs:
– The bank that sold the mortgage had few incentives to keep the risk low – Even for toxic assets , the risk is difficult for rating agencies to assess Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-24 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • Wholesale funding is a process in which banks rely on borrowing from other banks or investors to finance the purchase of their assets. • In 2000s, SIVs were entirely funded through wholesale funding. • Wholesale funding resulted in liquid liabilities. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-25 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis Figure 6 -8 U.S. Consumer and Business Confidence, 2007−2011 The financial crisis led to a sharp drop in confidence, which bottomed in early 2009. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-26 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • The demand for goods decreased due to the high cost of borrowing, lower stock prices, and lower confidence. • The IS curve shift to the left. • Policy makers responded to this large decrease in demand. Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-27 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • Financial Policies:
– Federal deposit insurance was raised from $100,000 to $250,000, – The Fed provided widespread liquidity to the financial system through liquidity facilities, and increased the number the assets that could serve as collateral, – The government introduced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-28 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis • Monetary policy:
– The federal funds rate was down to zero by December 2008. – The Fed also used unconventional monetary policy, which involved buying other assets as to directly affect the rate faced by borrowers. • Fiscal Policy:
– The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was passed in February 2009, calling for $780 billion in tax reductions and spending increases Copyright © 2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-29 6 - 5 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis Figure 6 -9 The Financial Crisis, and the Use of Financial, Fiscal, and Monetary Policies The financial crisis led to a shift of the IS to the left. Financial and fiscal policies led to some shift back to the IS to the right. Monetary policy led to a shift of the LM curve down. Policies were not enough however to avoid a major recession.
