Problem 6-05 Consider the following time series data. Choose the correct time series plot. (i)(ii)(iii)(iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for

What type of pattern exists in the data?

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places

Week tsvalue forcast

1 18

2 13

3 16

4 11 ?

5 17 ?

6 14 ?

MSE?

The forecast for wek 7 ?

Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places

Week Time SeriesValue Forecast

1 18

2 13 ?

3 16 ?

4 11 ?

5 17 ?

6 14 ?

MSE?

Forecast week 7?

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

Explain.

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Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.