Quantitative Analysis for Decision Makers Please review the Case of Water Main Breaks in the City of Makefield and answer the Decision ASSESSMENT SHEET based on the case. Here's a video that will gui

EXPLAINING WATER MAIN INTEGRITY: THE CITY OF MAKEFIELD


BACKGROUND


As an elected executive (mayor) in the City of Makefield, your major concern is the quality of infrastructure in the municipality. Makefield is an old industrial city with aging infrastructure. While campaigning you observed that city residents, particularly those who live in the western part of the city, consistently expressed concerns about loss of water pressure and water main leaks in their neighborhoods as opposed to resident in the eastern part of the city.

You decide to embark on an explanatory analysis of water main integrity in the eastern and western parts of the city (the city has two main districts of water distribution—one in the eastern section of the city and the other in the western part of the city).

THE WATER MAIN PROBLEM: WHAT ARE WE MEASURING?

Your management problem is the integrity of water mains in the city—How sound is the construction of the water mains given their age (much of the water main infrastructure is over 70 years old)? Using 311 data, your staff uses resident complaints of water leaks and breaks measured at the nominal level where 1=a break or leak and 0=no break or leak. This information will be analyzed by water district of the city, where 1=west district and 2=east district. In an effort to confirm if water district has an impact on the frequency of water breaks and leaks, your staff decides to examine the impact of district on the frequency of water main complaints by season. The goal here is to ascertain if season exasperates water breaks or leaks for a particular district.

DECISION CONSIDERATIONS

Your facilitates manager has recommended the development of a capital improvement plan for the city’s water distribution system. However, this initiative has been put on hold since a data analysis is lacking. The facilitates manager would also like some direction on where to start if a capital improvement plan is to be pursued.

Table 1: Assessment of Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks by Water District of the City

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes × District Location in City

District Location in City

Total

East District

West District

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes

no

Count

230

491

721

Expected

213.39

507.61

yes

Count

5

68

73

Expected

21.61

51.39

p=.0001

Table 2: Assessment of Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks by Water District Controlling for Season

Season of the Year

Summer

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes × District Location in City

District Location in City

Total

East District

West District

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes

no

Count

19

54

73

Expected

17.12

55.88

yes

Count

0

8

8

Expected

1.88

6.12

Total

Count

19

62

81

p=.105

Season of the Year

Fall

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes × District Location in City

District Location in City

Total

East District

West District

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes

no

Count

29

59

88

Expected

27.44

60.56

.95

yes

Count

0

5

5

Expected

1.56

3.44

.05

Total

Count

29

64

93

p=.147

Season of the Year

Spring

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes × District Location in City

District Location in City

Total

East District

West District

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes

no

Count

75

157

232

Expected

68.97

163.03

yes

Count

2

25

27

Expected

8.03

18.97

Total

Count

77

182

259

p=.004

Season of the Year

Winter



Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes × District Location in City

District Location in City

Total

East District

West District

Water Pipe Breaks and Leaks in Pipes

no

Count

79

147

226

Expected

73.83

152.17

yes

Count

3

22

25

Expected

8.17

16.83

Total

Count

82

169

251

p=.014