You have read the lecture about illusory correlation on Canvas and watched parts of the “Much Apu About Nothing” episode of The Simpsons (if you have not done so already, please go over the Homer Simp

Homer Simpson and Illusory Correlation

Let's extend the textbook’s coverage of correlation by discussing the phenomenon of illusory correlation—a perceived correlation that does not really exist. When people believe there is a relationship between two things, they are likely to notice and recall instances that seem to confirm their belief. The illusory correlation explains many superstitious beliefs, such as that sugar promotes hyperactivity in children, getting cold and wet will cause you to catch a cold, and changes in the weather cause the pain of arthritis. The point, of course, is that when people notice events that are purely coincidental, they may forget that the events are random and instead perceive them as being correlated, or even causally related.

Watch parts of the "Much Apu About Nothing" episode of The Simpsons here:

Martin Bolt (2010) offers a humorous way to show examples of illusory correlation. In “Much Apu About Nothing,” an episode of The Simpsons (Season 7), the town of Springfield invests millions of dollars in a Bear Patrol after a single bear was spotted near the town. While praising the town leaders, Homer notes to daughter Lisa how well the patrol is working: “Not a bear in sight.” Wise Lisa challenges Homer’s illusory correlation by stating, “By your logic, I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.” Ever-gullible Homer asks how the rock works and Lisa replies, “I don’t see any tigers around, do you?” Homer thinks for a moment and then begs, “Lisa, I want to buy your rock!”

Here is another example of illusory correlation; this example is related to the age-old belief that changes in the weather trigger the pain of arthritis. How do you think this belief might be empirically tested? Let's discuss the results of a study that followed 18 arthritis patients for 15 months (Kolata, 1996). Over the course of the study, the researchers tracked both the participants’ reports of arthritic pain and the daily temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. At the end of the study, there was no correlation between any of the measured weather variables and the participants’ reports of arthritic pain. The patients nevertheless strongly believed that weather changes triggered their pain. In another study, college students who were shown two columns of random numbers labeled “barometric pressure” and “arthritic pain,” respectively, misperceived a correlation where there was none.

Think of other examples of illusory correlation, and describe one in your post for the Discussion 3: Illusory Correlation discussion board activity (see the instructions in the discussion).