Sustainable development research paper deadline is 3rd of January everything will be discussed in private

of sustainable development of agriculture in

Azerbaijan?

Introduction

Earth's population is increasing, necessitating an increase in resources. UN reports that the

global population will reach 9 .8 billion by 2050, with a need for meal to double in order to meet

the exploding demand (UN DESA, 2017) . More than a billion people in the world currently get

their livelihood from farming. What is more , population growth is now posing a significant

challenge with finite natural resources. In furthermore to this worry, food waste also occurs at

each stage of the food chain . Unsustainable agricultural practices reinforce the need for

innovation because without the innovation, it will b e harder to conduct sustainable agriculture

practices that meet the needs of society while leaving resources for the future . Threat of the

climate change to the sustainable agriculture has been an issue of the net negative effect on the

crop yields, as well as the one of the water scarcity and food security. This paper examines the

effects of climate change and global wa rming on the agricultural sustainability in Azerbaijan,

analyzing the increase in global temperature in terms of the negatively affect ed annual yield of

crop s , severely affected levels of precipitation as well as the rising threats coupled with the water

s carcity .

Literature Review

Statistics shows, that in comparison with the 20

th

century, in the areas where crops are

grown, a yearly change in temperature has already increased by 1 °C. According to Seyed

Hossein, Mirjalili Mahdis, and Motaghian Fard (2019) , by the year 2100, climate change will

mean considerable economic losses for most underdeveloped countries, especially the ones

relying on crop yields. In the areas where one expects to see rising temperatures combined its

effect with the decreased precip itation climate change would likely expose agriculture to a

deeper crisis and cause a significant reduction of food supply. As climate change begins

affecting the lives of ordinary citizens and consumers ever more severely, the research into how

the increa se in global temperature affects agricultural activity and production becomes more

relevant. As the research study conducted by Tokunaga et al (2015) from 1995 through 2006

showed, there is a strong correlation between an increase in temperature by 1 °C an d dwindled

rice production by nearly 6% in 8 different regions of Japan.

The study results are also replicated in the research studies from other parts of the world.

For instance, a study by Seyed Hossein Mirjalili, Mahdis Motaghian Fard (2019) came to the

conclusion that in 24 years climate change negatively affected crop yiel d production in 14

different OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries) members . Another study into the effect of

climate change on crop yield was conducted by Chuang Zhao (2017) who concluded that ceteris paribus, one unit of rising in worldwide temperature is expected to cut global rice production by

an average of 3.2 ± 3.7%. According to Deepak Ray (2021), even though not always temperature

change negatively affects crop yields, in the majority of cases, it decreases the production of

crops. In the span of 4 years University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment, examined

almost 20.000 areas of crop production across the globe to research the relationship between the

changes in weather and crop production. They found out that climate change has already

decreased crop yield production, by reducing the rice harvests worldwide by 0.3% while

indicating a 0.9% fall in wheat yields annual ly . Wheat production will decrease by

approximately 6% , accordingly .

Azerbaijan is located in the region affected largely b y climate change. In a country with four

fifths of the territory covered by semi - aridic climate , the great majority of the agricultural land is

irrigated given its vulnerable nature and exposure to the climate (Bayramov, 2018) . Among the

crucial factors that impact climate change could imbalance the sustainability of the agricultural

productivity in the territory of Azerbaijan is highly as sociated with the presence of rising in local

temperature strong variability in the patter ns of precipitation and rising patterns of melting in

glaciers of smaller and higher Caucasus mountains. As there are two sources of plants getting

watered in Azerbaijan: one being irrigation and another being dependent on the rainfed regions;

the high lev el of variability in the patterns of precipitation will lead to the increased vulnerability

in the regions where rainfed farming is the main source of agricultural activity with precipitation

levels expected to decline nationally about 40 mm per year by 20 50 (Ahouissoussi, et al., 2014).

One of the studies on the severity of the impact sourced from the climate change on the crop

yield in the territory of Azerbaijan was conducted with the funding of the World Bank and the

report divided climate change effect s into low, medium, and high impact scenarios. According to

the report, if one expects to see the Medium Impact Scenario happening and without going to the

extremes, the results for Azerbaijan would be devastating of all with a 77% decrease in the

producti on of alfalfa, corn, potato, wheat, and 66% of the decrease in the yield of grape

(Ahouissoussi, Neumann, & Srivastava, 2014). As the study found, the main reason would be the

high dependence of the local crops in Azerbaijan on irrigation. However, not all crops would be

affected the same way. The study estimated that the average decrease in the crop yield resulting

from the climate change by 2050 under the medium impact scenario will be 3 - 28 percent in the

rainfed agriculture regions while constituting 3 - 1 6 percent in the irrigated system using

agricultural regions (Ahouissoussi, Neumann, & Srivastava, Building Resilience to Climate

Change in South Caucasus Agriculture, 2014).

The problem with the drop in precipitation is just one part of the problem. The o ther part is

the expected future growth in water demand levels as the global temperature will increase. Yet

another part of the problem is the potential impact of climate change on the water runoff into

rivers which is also expected to shrink significantly . Water scarcity and stress on water resources

will become a major problem in the region of South Caucasus if no measures are taken. By the

year 2040, it is expected that the water runoff will increase the month of February, the lowest

indicator of runoff in 2020, while diminishing for the warmer months and especially for August

reporting a loss of 200 million cubic meters compared to the levels recorded in 2014 under the

premise that climate change would yield medium impact on Azerbaijan (Ahouissoussi, et al., Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, 2014). The

vicious cycle of water scarcity and rise in the global temperature constitute yet a major problem

of managing the agricultural activity for the sustainabilit y of food supply and the provision of

daily water needs of humanity. Considering that there will be a decrease in strategic food

supplies of Azerbaijan, the high - level structures such as the A zerbaijani Food Safety A gency

(AFSA) and the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences have recently initiated actions for its

preparation. The objective is to form a group focused on controlling, governing, monitoring, and

reporting on the risks of climate change every year to measure future actions (MENA Report,

2020) .

Local Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on Agriculture

Heads of departments of the Agrarian Science and Innovation Center Javanshir Talai, Nijat

Nasirli and senior specialist of the center Yagub Guliyev held a public briefing at the Press

Center of Sputnik Azerbaijan Agency to discuss and explain the implications of the climate

change on the agribusiness . The experts provided detailed information on the impact of climate

change on agriculture and answered questions. Yagub Guliyev, a senior specialist at the Center

for Agrarian Science and Innovation of the Ministry of Agriculture, informed the public abou t

the global concern about climate change

and its impact on agriculture by quoting it

as an inevitable process induced by

humans (Agricultural Science and

Innovation Center, 2020) . Therefore,

Azerbaijani authorities plan to tak e fast

measures to ensure that the agricultural

sector reduces the negative impact of

climate change on agriculture.

One of the biggest effects of climate

change is the uneven distribution of

precipitation. This year we have faced serious problems in the Aran region of Azerbaijan (mainly

grain fields) due to the drought. Most of the grain is planted in the fall. If we look at the graph

below, we can see that the thunder standard average rainfall over the last 50 years has not been

consistent, and Azerbaija n is experiencing droughts like never before, which are being caused by

a rise in temperatures compared to the same time last year. Based on the information which was

collected and then visualized from the

State Statistical Committee of the

Republic of Aze rbaijan (2019), w e can

observe from F igure 1 and F igure 2, while

the annual precipitation levels have

dropped almost by 10% (Figure 1), the

annual temperature in Azerbaijan has risen

by 1.5 - 2 °C (Figure 2). The minimum

lowest monthly temperature in the cou ntry

02004006008001961-1990200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Fig 1. Average annual rainfall, mm02468101214161961-1990200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Fig 2. Average annual temperature, degrees CelciusStatistical Committee of Azerbaijan (2019)

Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan (2019) -6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.0200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Fig 3. Minimum (lowest) average monthly temperature, degrees Celcius (Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan, 2019)

has risen almost 6 - 7°C from its minimum level over the last 50 years (Figure 3). This sharp rise

in the nature of temperature constitutes direct evidence of the effects of global warming on

Azerbaijan and, therefore, the need for a sustainable agricul tural framework in the country is on

the rise .

Climate change is already affecting the agricultural practices in Azerbaijan on a large level.

There are mounting evidence of the fat that more and more land needs to be connected to the

network of irrigation lands in Azerbaijan every year and the situatio n is expected to get worse in

the next decade . Azerbaijani farmers need more water to meet their needs and produce crops.

One more problem in this case is

that both farmers and Azerbaij an i

citizens utilize water from the main

rivers of the country called K ura

and Araz rivers. As per the

statistics, the share of the irrigated

land in the country has ascended

since 2002 when it made up roughly

82,5% to more than 84% in 2019.

While this might seem like a huge

change from the previous spot, one

cannot ignore th e fact that the

subscribers of water supply

companies have almost doubled

since 2002 by increasing to 71% in

2019 , as depicted in the Figure 4

(State Statistical Committee of the

Republic of Azerbaijan, 2019) .

0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Share of the irrigated landThe share of the population supplied with water by watersupply companies, (%)Figure 4. Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan (2019)0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Total volume of fresh water supplied from water supply area,millions cubic metersWater loss during delivery, millions cubic metersFresh water provided to consumers by water supply companies,millions cubic meters

Figure 5. Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan ( 2019 ) A more alarming point worthy of mentioning is that Azerbaijani water resources do not only

undergo a huge pressure from several sectors, including the residential, agricultural and others;

also , there are huge amounts of water losses in the procedure . T hose facto rs lead to the drop in

the freshwater provided to consumers every year even though more and more people are

subscribing to such services . As Figure 5 demonstrates, 126 million cubic meters of lost water

was quadrupled in 2012 with more than 421 million cub ic meters; these losses during the

delivery of water supplies to the residential houses by water delivery companies have decreased

by half to 275 million cubic meters in 2019 (State Statistical Committee of the Republic of

Azerbaija n, 2019) . Freshwater resources waste is one of the sensitive issues on the global agenda

to address climate change. These figures ra is e legitimate concerns about the future of water

security in Azerbaij an and, therefore , the state has to take preventive measures and discourage

people from wasting water resources. Nijat Nasirli, head of the Agrarian Science and Innovation

Center of the Mi nistry of Agriculture, said that farmers have not taken a number of progressive

steps (Agricultural Science and Innovation Center, 2020) . He also declared that there are

frequent problems once the temperature increases. To manage the situation, preventive measures

are being implemented. Here the main problem is education and training about how to use water

resources sustainably . Here, the farmer must make sure he is properly educated, and provi de

information to the ministry if necessary. Therefore, the responsibility of the transition is through

the encouragement of the state towards sustainable farming via awareness - raising events in the

districts every week. The transition to water - saving tech nologies is important in combating

drought.

Javanshir Talai, H ead of the Department of Agrarian Science and Innovation at the Ministry

of Agriculture mentions that the situation with crop yield is not good at the global scale, and he

contends that given the current situation continues to escalate , food security will be in question in

the future (Mammadov, 2020) . The

estimates display that by 2050, the

world's populati on is expected to

reach 9 billion. According to

experts, people's demand for food

will double. Today, as a result of

climate change, lands are being

degraded and desertification is

accelerating. Especially in

developed countries, there are

national adaptat ion plans to adapt

to climate change. The issue of

efficient use of climate resources in

agricultural production is one of the

important tasks to solve the food problem. To implement it, it is necessary to study in depth the

features of our area, to identi fy potential opportunities for more efficient and rapid development

of agriculture. These plans include many issues such as the issue of insurance of cereals, which is

of particular strategic importance which are also applicable to Azerbaijan . Simultaneous ly , the

protection of traditional breeding materials, i.e. , traditional plant varieties, seed production have

0500000100000015000002000000250000030000003500000200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019Production of autumn and spring wheat in the republic, tonsProduction of cereals and legumes in the country, tons

Figure 6. Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan (2019) been on a high demand . It's worth nothing the fact that Azerbaijani farmers are actively engaging

in planting harvests in the recent years and statistics have shown that the production of cereals

such as autumn and spring wheat, or grains such as legumes are constantly rising which is good

news for the food security (Figur e 6). However, when we combine the puzzle with the already

established imagination of the effects of climate change on annual harvest, we will understand

that during the next decade, rising temperatures will start harming this process and cause crisis

with out the needed interventions.

Conclusion

To sum up, Azerbaijani agriculture is expecting a fierce problem related to the water

scarcity and decrease in the harvests due to the climate change . S ustainable agriculture is

currently a new field for an economy of Azerbaijan and the policies incentivizing such activities

have to be introduced in the shortest time possible . Rising use of water resources both by the

farmers and citizens will put high strain on the water management in the absence of sustainable

wat er management strategies. Furthermore, rising temperatures promise to be fatal by leading to

the lack of food in the next decades amidst the growing demand for crops. As the paper

demonstrated, the problem of this nature has taken a global character and un resolved, it will lead

to the serious risks and disasters in terms of the future of water and food security globally.

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