Hi I had attached the files .. there are 3 questions that you have to compete. Pls go through that pdf and let me know are you able to do that .. course name : fundamentals of operations management
BUS 2501 Group Assignment
Fall 2022
Due: Friday 4 November 2022 at 7:00pm
| Group Number: | ____ |
| Last Name (in alphabetical order) | First Name |
Submission instructions:
Start your written report with this cover page, which lists the names of group members who contributed to the assignment.
The written report should address the questions listed below. Type your answers in a word processor, convert it to PDF format. Each group is to develop a single report write-up.
Submit the PDF file with the accompanying Excel files electronically using nexus. The Excel files will be used to check the sources of your computations and to detect a mistake, if any.
Late assignments will not be graded.
To make it easy to give you the marks you deserve, you need to communicate clearly and concisely. SHOW YOUR WORK TO GET FULL CREDIT!! Include page numbers. Please use grammatically correct English.
You may use Microsoft Office’s screen print functionality (Snip tool) to copy a spreadsheet into Microsoft Word. Be sure to copy only the relevant part of the sheet.
Use 2 decimal places as appropriate (unless stated otherwise).
Good luck!!!
Excel File: BUS2501 F2022 Q1 ROUGIR COSMETICS.XLS
The following questions are based on the Rougir Cosmetics International (RCI) case. Please purchase your own copy of the case from Ivey publishing available at https://www.iveypublishing.ca/s/product/rougir-cosmetics-international-production-optimization/01t5c00000CwqrzAAB
RCI has to plan its production schedule for the upcoming quarter.
a. Based on the case description, what are the costs for producing the three products in-house? Motivate your answer with calculations and include your answers in row 18 of the accompanying Excel file.
b. State, in words, the objective function, decision variables, and constraints.
c. Set up a model to determine RCI’s best decision. (Fractional decision variables are OK – don’t use integer constraints.) Use good spreadsheet engineering techniques.
d. Use Solver to find RCI’s best decision. State the optimal decision and the resulting value of the objective function.
e. What are the binding constraints for the optimal solution?
Question 2 – GASOLINE PRICES [5 MARKS]
Excel File: BUS2501 F2022 Q2 GASOLINE PRICES.XLS
Use the Gasoline Prices data given in the accompanying Excel file to answer the following questions.
Graph the data. Be sure to label features of the graph (such as axis) appropriately.
Develop spreadsheet models to forecast prices using simple moving average and simple exponential smoothing. Use MAD, BIAS as guidance to find the best number of moving average periods and best smoothing constant for exponential smoothing.
Moving average: just try a couple of numbers of periods ranging from 1-week to 5 weeks
Exponential smoothing: Use optimization to find the best alpha that minimizes MAD, constraining your alpha to be between 0 and 0.3. Select GRC Nonlinear as the solving method.
Include an additional forecasting technique where
.
Which forecasting technique do you prefer? Motivate your answer. Furthermore, explain why this technique works best for the data in this exercise.
Use the template provided to help formulate your problem. Note that not every cell in every row needs to be filled in. Do not insert or delete any rows.
Larry’s Bakery operates a chain of ten high-end bakeries. Larry, the owner of these amazing bakeries, is looking at two options to increase his revenues throughout his chain of bakeries.
The first option is to launch a loyalty card. Doing this would cost Larry $500,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.6, which means the probability it would result in low sales is 0.4. If high sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $1,000,000. If low sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of only $750,000.
The second option Larry has is to cut the prices throughout his bakeries. Doing so would cost him $300,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.8. If doing this results in high sales, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $800,000. If it results in low sales, he can expect to see additional revenues of only $500,000.
Larry obviously has a tough decision ahead of him. He is currently leaning towards launching a loyalty card, yet the probabilities scare him. Larry can make his decision slightly easier by hiring a private bakery investigator. This investigator would go out and non-creepily talk with all of Larry’s customers, and ask them if they would like the loyalty card. This option comes at a price though. Larry would have to pay this mysterious investigator $75,000 for him to do his job. The investigator would come back to Larry with a satisfactory or unsatisfactory decision. A satisfactory decision would mean that the probability of high sales given the launch of a loyalty card, would be 0.9, while an unsatisfactory decision would mean the probability of low sales would be 0.7, given the launch of a loyal card. The likelihood of the investigator providing a satisfactory decision if 0.6.
You need to decide which of these options you should go with, if either. Remember, your goal is to maximize profit. If you do decide that one of these options is worthwhile, should you hire the mysterious, private bakery investigator to not creepily talk to your customers?
Develop a decision tree to find the best decision strategy for Larry, based on expected monetary value. What is the optimal strategy? What is the corresponding expected monetary value yielded from this tree?
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