Video Analysis The video has fruitful contexts for observing fallacious reasoning, biases that impact how evidence is being collected or interpreted, and attempts at persuasive maneuvers. Based on you

In te rp re ta tio n ( ...w hat t h e t e x t M EA N S) = A naly zin g t h e t e x t t o o ffe r a m ea n in g f o r t h e t e x t a s a w hole ; ev a lu atin g i t s s ig n if ic a n ce O rie nta tio n t o w ard m ate ria ls What's * y o u r* p ers p ectiv e o n t h e t e x t?

W hic h p arts d o y o u a g re e & d is a g re e w it h ? D o y o u t h in k t h e a u th or s u cce ed s i n t h eir s ta te d a im s?

W hy o r w hy n ot?

W hat w ou ld y o u c h an ge? H ow ? W hat Y O U t h in k A BO UT w hat t h e t e x t m ea n s O rie nta tio n t o w ard m ate ria ls WHA T I S C O GNIT IV E BIA S? they are rational ada ptations; as natural results of how our cognitive systems wor k, they help our brains to address: too much information, complex environment need to act fast limited memory and pr ocessing power = systematic tendenci es to make a judgment on the basis of inadequate/ irrelevan t information, often affecting perception, memory, and attention Yagoda's definition: the collection of faulty ways of thinking that is apparently ha rdwired into the human brain C og nit iv e B ia se s World / N atu re C on sc io u s ex p erie n ce each day, we're e xposed to on average105,000 words 6,000 - 10,000 ads 34GB of information in total "W hil e t h e m ost i m porta n t t y p e o f e v en t m od el i s t h e w ork in g m od el, w hic h s im ula te s w hat i s g o in g o n i n t h e h ere -a n d-n ow , a n y m en ta l sim ula tio n o f a n e v en t g en era te s a n e v en t m od el: w e u se t h em w hen w e f o re ca st f u tu re e v en ts , i m ag in e h yp oth etic a l e v en ts , u n ders ta n d ev en ts t h at a re n arra te d t o u s, a n d r e co n str u ct m em orie s o f p ast e v en ts . W ork in g m od els a re p artia l a n d i n co m ple te r e p re se n ta tio n s of a s it u atio n co n str a in ed b y c rit e ria o f r e le v a n ce a s p erc e iv ed b y t h e su bje ct. T hey a re ro u gh -a n d-r e a d y m ap s o f u n fo ld in g e v en ts , c o n ta in in g o n ly w hat t h e s u bje ct n eed s f o r g ra sp in g a n d n avig atin g i n t h e t e rra in , a n d l it tle e ls e . T hus, t h e w ork in g m od el w il l t y p ic a lly r e p re se n t r e le v a n t e n tit ie s a n d a g en ts , t h e c a u sa l a n d in te n tio n al l in ks b etw een t h em , a n d t h e p la ce a n d t im e i n w hic h t h e ev en t t a k es p la ce ." ( T aves e t a l, p . 5 ) if a working strategy is already in place, the cost of trying alternative strategies may not be outweighed by the mere possibility of a better solution.

one way we mitigate the risks of decision-making is by using heuristics.

in environments that change often, people are more likely to try alternatives or rely on other sources of information, like socially-acquired strategies Decis io n-m akin g u n d er u n ce rt a in ty = cognitive frameworks, templates, or rule systems that we apply to the world to make sense of it A knowledge structure "comprised of an individual's organized general knowledge about a particular concept that has accumulated from one's similar past experiences. Schemas serve as structured expectations..." Sch em as = the shortcuts & rules of thumb by which we make judgments and predictions they quickly suggest a solution to a problem, often operating automatically and unconsciously; helpful guides for judgment that are “going to be helpful more often than not” H eu ris tic s = systematic tendenci es to make a judgment on the basis of inadequate/ irrelevan t information, often affecting perception, memory, a nd attention biases impact percept ion of information, collection and selection, interpreta tion, memory and storage--they intervene @ all levels of our i nferential processes vs. fallacies: common argument patterns that make arguments appear stronger than they are; psychologically persuasive often because of bias es C og nit iv e B ia se s Assu m ptio n s P u rp oseQ uestio n @ i s su e C on ce p tsIn fo / D ata P oin t o f V ie w Im plic a tio n s & C on se q u en ce s In te re p re ta tio n & I n fe re n ce T he T ho ug ht-P ro ce ss What w e'r e t r y in g t o fig u re o u t & w hy T he l o gic s w e u se t o d o t h e f ig u rin g R esu lt s /p ro d u cts , m ea n in gs d ra w n "T hou gh t c re a te s m ea n in g" Kah nem an : T hin k in g, F ast a n d S lo w Syste m -1 T hin kin gSyste m -2 T hin kin g Rea ctiv e, q u ic k , i n stin ctiv e, h olis tic , m en ta l s h ortc u ts , sc h em as, h eu ris tic s R efle ctiv e, d elib era tiv e, a n aly tic a l, p ro ce d u ra l, in vo lv ed i n m ak in g j u dgm en ts & a rg u m en ts Confirmation Bias T h e 6 " M ost D am ag in g " B ia se s Fundamental Attributi on Error The Bias Blind SpotThe Anchoring EffectThe Representativenes s Heuristic Projection Bias123456 affects how we interpret, gather, and recall information i t's a matte r of what we do w ith disconfirming evidence ; we tend to hold on to o ur initial hypotheses even in the face of s uch evidenc e the tendency for people to attend to information that agrees with t heir curren t perspective and to ignore, rationalize, or justify i nformation that runs counter to their perspective S elf-fulfill ing prophecies. / "You see what you want to see." E .g. Salem W itch Trials, conspiracies, and everyday life C onfir m atio n B ia s Leo Tolstoy, What Is Art? (1897) "I think that one of the hardest tasks a human mind can face is reserving judgment about a conviction that has always seemed to you obvious and thinking about how maybe that might not be right." – Daniel Dennett . ..Is Being Wrong a V irtue? present bias is the t endency, when considering a trade-off between two future mo ments, to more heavily weight the one closer to the present Hershfield: "saving i s like a choice between spending money today or giving i tto a stranger years from now." Here's an idea: "Peop le are 'estranged' from their future self." P re se n t B ia s Fu n d am en ta l A ttrib utio n E rro r when assessing someon e's behavior, we put too much weight on their perso nal attributes and too little on external factors the 'not lik e other girls' bias "Most people think they're not like other people But they a re." = most of us think that we are less biased t han the average pers on B ia s B li n d S pot Sta n le y M ilg ra m 's E xp erim en t A f e w im port a n t p oin ts ... b iases are NOT an eth ical issue of corrupt or ignorant individuals (the 'bad apples' theory) cognitive bias impact s honest and dedicated doctors, police officers, lab technicians, pilots...

blaming individuals f or systematic processes??

experts are not immun e to bias; in some ways, they are more susceptible to c ertain biases bc experience & training makes them e ngage in more selective attention. Eg oce ntris m The " N atu ra l A ttit u de" E go ce n tr is m = t h e m in d n atu ra lly s e es i t s e lf a s ' r ig h t' P ers o n al n arr a tiv e i n t h e ' M in d's E ye' b ia se s u s t o w ard o u r o w n vie w poin t; c o n fu sin g t h e w orld w it h o u r p ers p ectiv e o n t h e w orld , w e f e el c e rta in t h at w hat w e s e e i n o u r ' M in d's E ye' i s a n a ccu ra te r e a d ou t o f t h e w orld . "I c a ll ' e m a s th ey a re ." - S elf - s e rv in g: r e a so n in g t o w ard g ettin g i t s d esir e s & w an ts m et, t o v a lid ate i t s c u rre n t b elie fs - S elf - p ro te ctin g: r a tio n aliz in g t o m ain ta in i t s P O V & i n te rn al c o h ere n ce So cio ce n tr is m = " A ll o f u s, t o v a ry in g d eg re es, u n crit ic a lly a cce p t a s rig h t a n d c o rre ct w hate v er w ays o f a ctin g a n d b elie v in g a re f o ste re d i n t h e s o cia l g ro u ps t o w hic h w e b elo n g" S o cio ce ntris m We a re a lw ays a lr e a d y d ete rm in ed b y l a n gu ag e, c u lt u re , a n d t h e s o cia l c o n te x ts t h at w e f in d o u rs e lv es i n .

W e o ft e n t h in k p eo p le w ho d on ’t a g re e w it h u s a re e it h er m is in fo rm ed , s tu pid , o r ev il . S o o ft e n , o u r f ir s t m ove i s t o t r y a n d t h ro w i n fo rm a Beli e f in A nth ro p og en ic C li m ate C han g e S cie n tif ic L it e ra cyD em ocra tR ep ub li c a n Kahneman: "The questi on that is most often as ked about cognitive illus ions is about whether they can be overcome. The mess age...

is not encouraging." "The goal is not to t rust what I think I see. T o understand that I sho uldn't believe my lying eyes ." K ah nem an v s . N esb it t studies showing huge improvements "I know from my own r esearch on teaching people ho w to reason statistically that just a few ecamples i n two or three domains are suf ficient to improve people's r easoning for an indefinitely l arge number of events' Nesbitt: It's possibl e to train statistical intuition s.