Answer the Questions Regarding the “3. Carbon Dioxide’s Oversized Footprint” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6):When it comes to climate change, atten
R ega rd in g e ach o f y o ur t h re e P art 1 s c e n ario s f o r [ C O 2] i n 2 100:
E stim ate t h e t e m pera tu re c h an ge v ia EB CM f o r e ach s c e n ario . ( T o u se E B CM , m ake a c o py o f t h e
s p re ad sh eet p ro vid ed . A dju st o nly t h e t e m pera tu re -d if fe re n ce v a lu e i n c e ll I 6 t o o bta in t h e d esir e d
[ C O 2] v a lu e i n c e ll D 8.)
T h e d if fe re n ce i n c a rb o n d io xid e d egre e b etw een Q uestio n1 P art4 a n d Q uestio n3
P art1 is 4 91p pm -4 47p pm = 4 4p m . T h e t e m pera tu re c h an ge f r o m E B CM i s 0 .6 2
T h e d if fe re n ce i n c a rb o n d io xid e d egre e b etw een Q uestio n 2 P art 4 a n d Q uestio n 3 P art 1 i s
7 81.3 6p pm -4 91p pm =2 90.3 6p pm /S o t h e t e m pera tu re c h an ge f r o m E B CM i s 4 .0 6.
O n a c o py o f t h e “ 2 . F u tu re W arm in g P ath w ays” g ra p h f r o m t h e A G U ’s s e le ctio n o ffiv e c h arts f r o m t h e
r e ce n t I P CC a sse ssm en t ( A R6), p lo t y o ur t h re e e stim ate s f o r 2 100 a n d i d en tif y t h e c o rre sp o ndin g
e m is sio ns s c e n ario .
1 .4 +0 .6 2=2 .0 2
℃
. W hen t h e e stim atio n o f t h e G lo bal s u rfa ce
t e m pera tu re o f 2 100 i s 2 .0 2
℃
, w hic h i s
a b ove l o w e m is sio n a n d u nder m id -le ve l e m is sio n. T h e r e su lt i s t h at t h e P aris a gre e m en t t a rg e ts .
1 .4 +4 .0 6=5 .4 6
℃
. W hen t h e e stim atio n o f t h e G lo bal
s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re i s 5 .4 6
℃
i n 2 100, w hic h i s
a b ove t h e v e ry h ig h e m is sio n.
U sin g a c o py o f t h e “ 4 . A nnual C arb o n D io xid e E m is sio ns” g ra p h f r o m t h e A G U ’s s e le ctio n o ffiv e g ra p hs
f r o m t h e r e ce n t I P CC a sse ssm en t ( A R6), e stim ate t h e C O 2 e m is sio ns f o r 2 100 i n G tC O 2/y r
c o rre sp o ndin g t o e ach o f y o ur t h re e s c e n ario s.
W hen t h e e stim atio n o f G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re o f 2 100 i s 2 .0 2, t h e C O 2 e m is sio n f o r 2 1 00 i s 9 .5 G t
C O 2/y r W hen t h e e stim atio n o f G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re o f 2 100 i s 5 .4 6, t h e C O 2 e m is sio n f o r 2 1 00 i s
1 45 G tC O 2/y r W hen t h e e stim atio n o f G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re i s 6 .0 8 i n 2 100, t h e C O 2 e m is sio n f o r
2 100 i s 1 53 G tC O 2/y r
R ega rd in g t h e p o te n tia l f o r a ‘ C O VID -1 9 a n o m aly ’ a t Y o rk U i n 2 021:
B ase d o n t h e c a lc u la to r h ere , w hen d o es t h e m axim um U V I n d ex v a lu e o ccu r?
A cco rd in g t o t h ese t w o f ig u re s, i t i s i n fe rre d t h at t h e m axim um U V I n dex v a lu e w ill b e r e ach ed o n J u ly
1 6, 2 021,w hic h i s 9 .1 .
U sin g F ig u re 1 (b ) f r o m t h e r e se arc h p ublic a tio n h ere , e stim ate t h e m axim um v a lu e o f t h e i n cre ase i n
D W SW i r ra d ia n ce a t t h e s a m e d ate a s t h e U V I n d ex m axim um i n W /m 2.
0 .5 34W /m 2
O bta in t h e E M OS i r ra d ia n ce d ata c o rre sp o ndin g t o t h is s a m e d ate .
S ta te t h e m axim um v a lu e o f t h e D W SW i r ra d ia n ce i n W /m 2.
789W/m²,
A dd t h e i n cre ase i n D W SW i r ra d ia n ce f r o m t h e r e se arc h p ublic a tio n t o y o ur E M OS d ata t o d ete rm in e
t h e p erc e n ta ge i n cre ase . ( T h is i s C O VID -1 9 a n o m aly i n t e rm s o f D W SW i r ra d ia n ce a t E M OS.)
0 .5 34/(0 .5 34+7 89)* 1 00% =0 .0 68%
S u btra ct t h e p erc e n ta ge i n cre ase i n t h e D W SW i r ra d ia n ce d ata f r o m c e ll I 8 o f t h e E B CM m odel. ( E n su re
y o ur t e m pera tu re c a lc u la tio ns h ave b een z e ro ed o ut i n E B CM - i . e ., c e ll I 6 h as b een r e se t t o 0 .)
1 % -0 .0 68% =0 .9 32%
S
t a te t h e r e su lt in g t e m pera tu re c h an ge d ete rm in ed
b y E B CM f r o m c e ll D 6. ( Ig n o re t h e c h an ge i n
[ C O 2].)
2 .6 346°C
H ow d o es y o ur E B CM t e m pera tu re e stim ate c o m pare w it h F ig u re 1 (c ) o f t h e r e se arc h p ublic a tio n?
H ow d o es F ig u re 1 (a ) f r o m t h e r e se arc h p ub lic a tio n f a cto r i n to t h is C O VID -1 9 a n o m aly s c e n ario ?
D ust a n d h aze o bstr u ct t h e s u n's l ig h t a n d l e ad t o a n a e ro so l o ptic a l d ep th M easu re m en t. B y a b so rb in g
o r s c a tt e rin g s u nlig h t, a tm osp heric p artic le s b lo ck s u nlig h t. T h e n um ber o f t r ip s b y c a r h as d ecre ase d
d urin g t h e C ovid -1 9 p erio d, r e su lt in g i n a s u bsta n tia l d ecre ase i n t h e n um ber o f a e ro so ls i n t h e a ir . A s a
r e su lt , t h e g ro und h as b een h it w it h m ore s u nlig h t d urin g t h e C ovid -1 9.
I n h is r e ce n t b o ok, B ill G ate s s ta te d : “ ... t h e w orld ’s g re en ho use g a s e m is sio ns p ro bab ly d ro pped j u st 5
p erc e n t, a n d p o ssib ly l e ss t h an t h at. W hat’s r e m ark a b le t o m e i s n o t h ow m uch e m is sio ns w en t d ow n
b eca u se o f t h e p an dem ic , b ut h ow l it t le .” D oes G ate s’ n o tio n o f w hat’s r e m ark a b le a p ply t o y o ur
a n aly sis ? E xp la in .
D urin g C ovid -1 9, t h e a m ount o f D W S W hit in g t h e s u rfa ce w as b o oste d b y m ore t h an 5 0% , a cco rd in g t o
t h is q uo te f r o m B ill G ate s. T h is c o uld h ave a p o te n tia l i m pact. T h e e p id em ic h as a ls o a ffe cte d h um an
a ctiv it ie s t o a g re at e xte n t, b ut g re en ho use g a s e m is sio ns a re s till d ow n 5 % s in ce t h e e p id em ic b ega n .
A lo ng-t e rm p re se n ce o f g re en ho use g a se s i n t h e a ir i s m ost l ik e ly r e sp o nsib le f o r t h is . A ddit io nall y , t h e
e p id em ic i n cre ase s A O D b eca u se a e ro so l c o nte n t i s r e d uce d i n t h e a ir .
