instructions attached below with a sample paper as an example. no citation page is needed, ONLY footnotes in chicago style please! Notes are attached as well to pick a theory from class.

Basic Human Need –The Political economy of civil conflictCONF 340:Professor Patrick Hakizimana Announcement •Conflict Memoranda –no worries you did well !•Safe Assign •Sauces –news articles Vs. peer review articles •Analysis –theoretical application •Explain/define it –explain the theory in light ofthe case study•Your conclusion draws from the analysis This week’s Questions •Where does civil conflict happen?•International Relation / interstate conflict•Liberalism •Realism •Marxsim•Interstate conflict / intrastate conflict •PSC,HI, Conflict Trap•How does civil conflict begin? •What are the frameworks attempt to explain civil conflict? Psychological Theory of aggression Gurr Gurr's contribution •Intragroup and Intergroup relations and their role in conflict•Hobbes: thought conflict itself was not important to study, but focused more on political order and political structures•Violence and civil conflict should be studied•We can look at and examine social patterns that lead to violence5 Relative Deprivation•Relative Deprivation is a precondition for violent conflict•Frustration leads to aggression•Defined as “actorsperception of discrepancy between their value expectations and their environment’s apparent value capabilities (conditions).”•Va l u e ex p e c tat i o n s –goods and conditions of life to which people believe they are entitled•Va l u e ca p a b i l i t i e s –conditions that determine people’s perceived chances of getting or keeping the things they legitimately expect to maintain•Collective frustration/deprivation –suppression of a political party (eg: Cambodia, Hong Kong)•Personal frustration/deprivation –not receiving a promotion •More severe relative deprivation the greater the likelihood of conflict6 Relative Deprivation continued7•The greater your belief in a value expectation the greater your anger will be when this is not met. •Social Control -when there is little concern about retribution, the likelihood for civil violence increases•eg: Central American Gangs •Institutions –institutions that provide a way to express anger can reduce the likelihood of violence.•Strong judicial process -•Social Facilitation –violence is more likely if a violent response to anger fits within existing experiences and beliefs (eg: DRC rebels –forming a rebel group could be effective ) Debating The Causes Of Civil ConflictGREED, GRIEVANCE, AND OPPORTUNITY8 Three types of explanations•Think of detectives in a murder mystery:•Need to show motiveand opportunity•Two explanations that rely on motive:1.Grievance•Protracted social conflict (PSC) theory (Azar -John Burton) •Stewart and horizontal inequalities2.Greed: Collier et al•One explanation that relies on opportunity:3.The opportunity school: Collier et al9 Grievance: protracted social conflict theoryStructural to direct violence: process dynamicsCommunal actionsState actionsMechanisms of conflictPreconditions for conflictCommunal contentViolation of basic human needsRole of the stateInternational linkagesAttempt to explain “new wars”10 Protracted Social ConflictJohn Burton•Explaining the new wars•Preconditions for conflict:•Communal content•Violation of basic human needs•Role of the state•International linkages•Structural to direct violence: process dynamics•Communal actions•State actions•Mechanisms of conflict11 PSC in Today’s World•Look for conflict where there is grievanceand failures of human development•Injustice•Poverty•Ethnic exclusion•Political repression •Next week: the argument over these ideas12 horizontal inequalities (HI) Ethnic civil wars -SalientIdentities Arab –Sunni alawiteKurd-SunniDruzeIsmaeliGreek orthodox Christian Armenia –Christian DinkaNuer tribeSyrian conflict What is an ethnic group?Primordialist: Identity is rooted in blood and cultureInstrumental: Identity is based on individual rational choicesConstructivist: Identity is established though human based social constructions Grievance: horizontal inequalities (HI)An attempt to explain ethnic conflict•High proportion of conflict (roughly 50% --p. 6 of Stewart)Types of HIs: political, economic, socialHorizontal vs. Vertical InequalitiesWhat is ethic group?• Primordialist• Instrumental• ConstructivistPrediction: HIs are the source of conflict.Similar toPSC theory16 Grievance summaryThere has been previous conflictPredictions: conflict more likely where:There is enduring injustice•Political •Economic•SocialThat injustice is along identity lines •Sect or religion•Ethnic or racial groups17 Greed: the real source of conflict?•This explanation described in Collier et al (around p. 63)•Assumption: individuals are . . . •Rational: calculating costs and gains•Self-interested (or greedy)•The state as a prize: controlling it gives access to:•Natural resources•Ta xe s•More power •Grievance and ethnic identity = is an illusions used to recruit18 The Effects of Civil Conflict & the Conflict Trap19 Conflict Trap Collier et al.. Opportunity (Collier et al)21•Assumptions:•Human motivations matter less•Grievance and greed are everywhere –conflict isn’t•Insurgencies as organizations•Where is it easier to organize insurgency?•Predictions: conflict more common in places with:•Poverty (lots of places) –more recruits•Good places to hide:•Mountainous terrain (Colombia, Afghanistan)•Isolated territories (peninsulas, islands –East Timor)•Easy funding:•Diasporas (Irish in Ireland, Irish in the United States)•Drugs (Colombia, Afghanistan)•Diamonds/minerals (Sierra Leone) Comparing these perspectives•What do people want?•Economic gain•Justice•Self-actualization as part of a group•The role of grievance and injustice•HIs and PSC: it’s integral•Greed and opportunity: it’s unimportant•Ethnicity’s role:•HIs and PSC: communal discrimination is key•Greed and opportunity: important for recruitment only22 Comparing these perspectives•Role of natural resources:•PSC and HIs: economic domination of them is an HI!•Greed: makes the state more valuable! •Opportunity: makes it easier to fund insurgency!•How to trust narratives of those in conflict?•Collier et al: you can’t!•PSC: narratives are key.•But areas of agreement (if for different reasons)•Greed and grievance: motivations are important•Past conflict àFuture conflict•Poverty àconflict•How to tell the difference between them?23 The conflict trapPoverty causes conflict:Everyone agrees on thisEasier recruitmentPresence of grievancesConflict causes more poverty (development in reverse)Displacement and refugeesSlower investment & economic growth Continuing hatredsMilitary lobbyResult: 44% of conflicts recur within 5 yearsContinuing hatredsVicious cycles24 Conflict as “development in reverse”•Within the country•During the conflict•Political economic•Social•After the conflict (i.e., legacy)•Political economic•Social•In the neighborhood•Economic •Social•Risk of civil war•Global effects25 The conflict trap: Collier et alPovertyConflict26 Consider a case: Colombia? •Colombia is very unequal•PSC: evidence of discrimination•Opportunity: it’s easier to recruit•Colombia has been plagued by drug trafficking•Opportunity: that’s how groups fund themselves.•PSC: but the war started in 1964!•Colombia is mountainous•Opportunity: that makes insurgency easier•PSC: it’s meant people isolated from the state•Lesson: theories may see the same ‘objective’ data and interpret it very differently.•Good lesson for your memos27 Discussion •If we think about Breaking the Conflict Trap on one side and PSC theory and Stewart’s theory of horizontal inequalities on the other, how are these two sets of theories different? •What are some of the big differences in the assumptions they make about what motivates human beings? What are some of the differences in why they think civil war happens?•The last question assumed that PSC theory and Stewart’s theory of horizontal inequalities more or less onthe same side of a debate over the causes of civil war. But how are they different?•One important theme to our week is that of ethnicity or identity. We all belong to identity groups. One way of thinking about our readings this week is that those identities can become the cause of conflict because of horizontal inequalities. Another view is that ethnicity is used by (presumably dishonest) leaders to whip up distrust and justify violence. Which view do you think is closer to the truth?•Collier et al describe man effects of civil war, including global effects. They also describe the various ways insurgent group fund their violent efforts. What are the ways in which civil war touches you, even as you sit in Virginia studying? What are some of the ways your own actions may affect the conduct of civil war thousands of miles away?