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ISBN-978-3-659-37311-4 3 DEDICATION This book is dedicated to mama (Justina Oka Okoh) with love. 4 Table of Contents 3 Preface 7 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations 11 CHAPTER ONE: OUR HERITAGE 1.1. Climate Change Science and Policy Interface 18 21 1.2. The Climate as Global Heritage 22 1.3. The Climate as Public Good 25 1.4. Global Common Resources 26 1.5. Tragedy of Commons 29 1.6. Africa and the Tragedy of Commons 32 1.7. Statehood and Climate 36 1.8. Is there a new Social Contract? 39 1.9. Human Rights and Climate Governance 42 1.10 Food Security and Climate Change 47 CHAPTER TWO: CLIMATE SCIENCE: WHAT WE KNOW 2.1. Climate Change Trends 53 2.2. Climate Change Phenomenon 56 2.3 Climate Change Defined 60 2.4. What we know about Climate Change 65 2.5. Is the World Warming? 69 2.6. What is Causing Global Warming? 72 2.7. Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change 81 2.8. Effects of MDGs on Climate Change 83 CHAPTER THREE: CONTENDING PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE 3.1. The Global Warming Controversy 89 3.2. Environmental Pessimists’ View 90 3.3. Environmental Optimists’ View 91 3.4. The Debate 91 3.5. Conclusion 100 5 CHAPTER FOUR: THEORETICAL ISSUES 4.1. Clarifications of key concepts in Political Ecology 104 4.2. Theoretical Underpinnings 109 4.3. Political Economy and Political Ecology Int erface 112 4.4. Political Ecology Defined 116 4.5. Perspectives on Political Ecology 120 4.6. Significance of the Political Ecology Approach 123 4.7. Capitalism and Nature 126 4.8. From Metabolism to Theory of Metabolic Rift and to Second Contradiction of Capitalism 127 4.9. Conclusion 133 CHAPTER FIVE: CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN AFRICA 5.1. Climate Governance: What it means? 137 5.2. Pre-Colonial Africa and Climate Governance 140 5.3. Colonial Administration and Climate Governance 145 5.4. Colonial Economy and Climate Governance 149 5.5. Post Colonial State and Climate Governance 155 5.6. Imperatives for Climate Governance in Africa 164 CHAPTER SIX: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 6.1. Climate Change in Africa 176 6.2. Impacts of Climate Change in Africa 180 6.2.1. Agriculture 183 6.2.2. Human Infrastructure 187 6.2.3. Human Health 187 6.2.4. Hydrology and Water Resource Management 189 6.2.5. Livelihood 191 6.2.6. Eco-system and Bio-diversity 192 6.2.7. Migration 193 6.2.8. Resource Conflicts 194 6.2.9. Employment 194 6 CHAPTER SEVEN: CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME AND AFR ICA 7.1. Perspectives on Climate Regime 197 7.2. Climate Regime in Africa 203 7.3. UNFCCC and Climate Regime 206 7.4. The Role of IPCC 209 7.5. Rio Earth Summit 211 7.6. Kyoto Protocol 215 7.7. Kyoto Controversy 219 7.8. Earth Summit II 220 7.9. Rio+20 and Green Economy 222 7.10 Outcome of Rio+20 226 7.11 CSO and Climate Change in Africa 230 7.11.1. Climate Change and Africa: The score She et 232 CHAPTER EIGHT: CLIMATE CHANGE POLITICS 8.1. Dimensions of Climate Politics 242 8.2. Africa and Climate Change Politics 248 8.3. Climate Politics 251 8.4. Africa and Climate Change Negotiations 254 8.5. COP 17: What was at Stake? 263 8.6. COP 17 and Kyoto Protocol 265 8.7. Africa and the Politics of COP 17 267 8.8. COP 18 and the Endgame of Climate Negotiations 269 8. 9. Doha and the Future of Kyoto Protocol 273 8.10. 2013 and Beyond 276 CHAPTER NINE: NEOLIBERAL POLICY, WTO, TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE 9.1. Climate Change and Neoliberal Policy in Afr ica 285 9.1.1. Definitions 286 9.1.2. Policy and Neoliberalism Defined 286 9.1.3. Neoliberalism and Climate Change Policy in Africa 291 7 9.2. WTO, Trade and Climate Change 302 CHAPTER TEN: THE CHALLENGE OF INTEGRATING NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY TO AFRICAN ACTION PLAN 10.1. Imperatives for Mainstreaming Climate Chang e Strategies to African Policy Framework 309 10.2. The Challenge of integrating National Climate Change Policy to African Action Plan 313 10.2.1. Climate Politics 314 10.2.2. Failure of National Policies 314 10.2.3. Institutional Failure 317 10.2.4. Leadership Crisis in Africa 319 10.2.5. Lopsided Relations between Africa and the North 320 10.2.6. Lack of Education and Public Awareness 3 21 10.2.7. Absence of Climate Laws and Climate Change Bill 322 10.2.8. The Paradox of Foreign Aid 323 10.2.9. African Debt Trap 326 10.3 Gender and Climate Change in Africa 327 CHAPTER ELEVEN: LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD 11.1. Looking Back 333 11.2. Looking Forward 336 11.3. Closing Remarks 343 REFERENCES 347 8 PREFACE The world is increasingly confronted with the twin mutually reinforcing challenge of climate change and extreme poverty. Ex treme poverty is on the rise globally with the increased dependency on fossil energy leading to gradual warming of the planet. The challenges as sociated with global warming are far more magnified in countries of the South especially sub- Saharan Africa where the adaptive capacity to cope with climate stress is non-existent. Consequently, poverty is exacerbated as climate change has pushed the poor to untenable development practices. At the heart of the problem of gradual buildup of poisonous gases are a nthropogenic carbonization of the biosphere and the biogeophysical interests of world powers which determine the nature and scope of all socioeconomic and political interactions on climate change. Finding l asting solutions to the challenge posed by climate change is a major source of politics at the international arena. In climate change negotiations, the scientific inte rpretations have always supplanted political interpretations of the phenomenon leading to the dependency on environmentalists for policy form ulation and implementation. Thus, policy and policy makers are at the mercy of people who are not grounded in politics. For the po licy maker to cope with this challenge he must be abreast with current findings in the science of climate change as any political analysis must be preceded by the science. Understanding the scientific basis is an e ssential starting point both for establishing that there is indeed a proble m and for appreciating the magnitude of the task and for finding enduring policies backed by empirical evidence. To this end, we have carried out a detailed analysi s of the subject illuminating both the politics and science of clima te change which underscores the political economy approach. The urg ency attached to the threats of climate change established by the scienc e points us in the direction of translating what we have uncovered wit h the policy analysis 9 into concrete policy actions. Our primary motive th erefore, is to examine the two-way interactive process whereby policy dire ction within local or international levels have impacted on climate chang e and how the economy in turn is redefining policy towards climat e change.

We begin chapter one with a general overview of the subject matter to lay the groundwork for our analysis. The chapter discusses climate as global heritage exploring the link between man and environment. The chapter also explores the tragic perception of this relationship. The science of climate change is extensively explicated in chapter two to foster a better understanding of the human influenc e on the climate change while unearthing the scientific basis of the phenomenon. It addressed the complex terrain of climate science gi ving the reader a detailed view of the problem to be tackled and its implications for human development while chapter three discusses the conte nding issues in climate debate. Chapter four establishes the theoretical foundation , the anchor upon which our boat of political economy sails. We adopt the political economy approach (especially the political ecology variant) not only because of its transdisciplinary focus but as it is the window to understanding the laws governing the political and economic life of society. Chapter five is on climate governance in Africa. In this chapter, we trace the historical background of environmental de gradation with a view to showing how it manifest in climate change in lat er stages of human development especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. We f ollow with the analysis of the impact of climate change on Africa in chapter six. The purpose of which is to locate the cause(s) behind t he currently exacerbated economic and ecological crises in Afric a.

The history of modern time opens to a theory of the modern world as ecological regime. In this regard, chapter seven ex amines climate change regime highlighting ecological regime with the view to situating the 10 changing global politics of climate change. In this , chapter we explore the role played by organizations which are part of the climate regime. The purpose of chapter eight is to foster better un derstanding of climate politics to ascertain whether Africa is der iving any tangible benefit from its involvement in global governance i nstitutions and participations at conferences for mitigation and ad aptation to climate risks. Throughout the book, we call attention to puzzles a nd outcomes receiving extensive attention in political economy as well as some not receiving much attention as they ought to. In line with this, we look at neoliberal policies and its consequences for the ec osystem in Africa. In the ninth chapter, we have generalized on the impac t of neoliberal policies as most cut across broad and complex clima te terrain in Africa. The challenge of integrating national climate polic y to African action plan is the focus of the tenth chapter. In m ost states in sub-Saharan Africa there is the challenge of formulating nation al climate change policy which invariably affects the formulation of regional and continental Action Plan. This problem is the focus of the chapter and is painstakingly analyzed in the light of the diminish ing environmental assets. The final part of the book draws the conclusion on a number of themes running throughout the book. Here, the major s points raised are captured. We also look at the future of the world i n the light of current global action on climate change at Rio+20 and attem pt to proffer some solutions for Africa and the world at large. Untying the ‘Gordian knot’ of climate change is of interest to us. In a world where moral suasion have failed to contribu te to the abatement of pollution of the fragile ecosystem; where there is also the absence of any legally binding instrument for enforcing abatement of emission profligacy of developed economies; researchers as conscience o f the world should shine new lights at the murky waters of climate pol itics. 11 It is therefore hoped the book will not only provid e useful information to students, scientists, policy-makers and international organizations on climate politics but will most imp ortantly open new debates about the complex politics of human-induced ecological crises; a debate opening new vistas in climate regime which i n turn will spurn policies for the poor who have no voice and are not consulted on climate change; a debate that will not only transcend cosme tic changes evinced by the greening of growth but will set in motion a reversal of untenable development pathway foisted by overproduction, unde r consumption, financialization and deindustrialization where the threats to mankind is turning us to endangered species in addition to a chain of other species long extinct through our inadequate climate steward ship and lopsided ecological equity and integrity. 176 6 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA CHAPTER SIX: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 6.1. Climate Change in Africa 6.2. Impacts of Climate Change 6.2.1. Agriculture 6.2.2. Human Infrastructure 6.2.3. Human Health 6.2.4. Hydrology and Water Resource Management 6.2.5. Livelihood 6.2.6. Eco-system and Bio-diversity 6.2.7. Migration 6.2.8. Resource Conflicts 6.2.9. Employment 177 CHAPTER SIX IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments —there are consequences. Robert G. Ingersoll (1833 - 1899) U.S. lawyer.

Subsistence rain-fed agriculture is the mainstay of most countries in Africa contributing GDPs ranging from 10% to 70%. A frica’s agriculture has the slowest record of productivity increase in the world and is the only major region with a decline in food production per capita during 1980–2000 (Sachs et al., 2004). Africa’s dependence on rain fed agriculture. This means production is vulnerable to climatic variability, severely affecting food, human security and exports . CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA Africa is by far the poorest inhabited continent in the world and, on average many of the countries in it are poorer than they were 25 years ago. Although some African countries recorded some modest growth during the 1990s, this growth only recovered ground lost during the 1980s in most cases. However, the continent still r emains mired in poverty and a strangling debt portfolio. The number of people living below the poverty line has increased by 50% over th e last 14 years (Amoakoh, 2004 cited in Nkomo, et al., 2006). However, the entire continent is not utterly impoverished and there is considerable variation in its wealth. The richest areas are the far north and south of the continent (Figure 6.1). There are also considerable internal variations in economic development within countries. 178 Source: http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:africa Figure 6.1. African States by GDP per Capita in US Dollars (2002). Climate change is leading to unpredictable climatic conditions as well as proliferation of pest and diseases leading to low y ields, and cost of agricultural produce thereby discouraging agricultu re in the continent, hence leading to the lost of employment and source of livelihood.

The gradual yet dramatic disappearance of tropical mountain glaciers such as on Mount Kilimanjaro has been attr ibuted to global warming (IPCC, 2001). An estimated 82 percent of th e icecap that crowned Mount Kilimanjaro when it was first thoroug hly surveyed in 1912 is now gone. A recent projection concludes if recession continues at the present rate, the majority of the glaciers on t he mountain could vanish in 15 years. Glaciers on the other African mountain s are also retreating 179 very fast. The snow and glaciers act as a water tow er, and several rivers are drying out in the warm season due to the loss o f this frozen reservoir.

Significant temperature increase in the recent year s is very evident.

Observational records have shown that Africa has be en warming throughout the 20th century at a rate of about 0.05 °C per decade, amounting to an increase of approximately 0.5°C (IP CC, 2007). The warming has been more significant in the period Jun e-November each year. Table 6.1 shows the rising trend in mean temp erature over 100 years. The most significant change to Africa’s clim ate has been a long- term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of West Africa. IPCC (2007) has predicted that in Africa: - By 2020, between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate ch ange.

- By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed a griculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Agricultural production, incl uding access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised. This would further adversely affect fo od security and exacerbate malnutrition. - Towards the end of the 21st century, projected se a level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of GDP.

- By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi- arid land in Africa is projected under a range of climate scenarios. In the Nigerian Sahel region, there has been a 25% decrease in precipitat ion on average in the last 30 years (Nkomo et al., 2006). However, the re duction in precipitation has been more moderate in other parts of Africa. Africa is very vulnerable to the current climate variability including the recurrent droughts and floods. Today recurrent extr eme climate events such as floods, cyclones, and droughts are devastat ing most economic, social and environment systems in Africa. The combi ned impact of HIV/AIDS, declining commodity prices and, in certai n areas, conflict, has significantly reduced the capacity of poor hous eholds in Africa to 180 cope with shocks of extreme climate events. SOURCE: (IPCC, 2001) TABLE 6.1 SHOWING MEAN TEMPERATURE IN AFRICA OVER 100 YEARS. In the past 30 years, both droughts and floods have increased in frequency and severity in the continent. The regula rity of drought periods has been a notable aspect of African climate in rec ent years, especially in the drier regions in the north. Well publicized dro ughts in the 1970s and 1980s significantly affected West Africa in the 20t h century and they severely affected large areas of Northern Africa an d the Sahel region. These drought periods are indicative of the large variability in climate across tropical Africa, the most serious effects of which are usually felt at the drier margins of agricultural zones or in the r egions occupied primarily by pastoral groups. In recent years, Africa witnessed more frequent flo ods and cyclone episodes. The coastal areas of Africa have in parti cular seen a marked increase in flooding in the last few decades (Nkomo et al., 2006). Dust storms (which are partly due to changes in land use such as grazing and 181 deforestation) in some parts of the Sahel have also increased, particularly between the 1950s and 1980s. Indeed, most people in Africa still do not have rea sonable access to safe drinking water. An even greater number of peop le lack adequate sanitation. Over 400 million people are expected to be living in at least 17 water-scarce African countries by the year 2010 (Wo rld Water Forum, 2000). Their lack of adequate water will severely c onstrain food production, ecosystem protection and socio-economic development. Sub- regional variations in runoff associated with varia tions in rainfall which ultimately affect river flows have been observed in Africa.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA Climate change is an all-encompassing threat: our f ood and waste supplies, our health, our security, stability and p roperty are all at risk. The vulnerability of different countries in the world t o climate change depends on the economic circumstance and institutio nal infrastructure.

Different countries have differing level of vulnera bility. The resilience of some countries especially in developed economies ar e high whereas some countries are more vulnerable especially in SSA whe re economic and institutional circumstances are less favourable. In deed, the implications for developing countries are heightened by their in ability to collate adequate data on its impacts as they are mostly sub jected to multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses. Although scien tific evidence and knowledge of climate variability has improved signi ficantly over the past decades and quantitative evidence can be developed; qualitative projections of the impacts of climate change on any particular system at any particular location is difficult because region al-scale climate change projections are uncertain; understanding of current critical processes is limited (IPCC, 1995). A confluence of rapid increases of population, expl osive growth of urban centers and largely unsustainable agricultura l practices leading to land degradation are set to make sub-Saharan Africa lag behind other 182 regions in development during the 21 st century. This, to Adejuwon (2006), will be compounded by the projected negativ e impacts of potential changes in global climate. Global climate change threat is already having initial tangible impact upon mankind and nature today (IPCC, 2001, WBGU, 2003). However, a global coverage of temperatures in the l ower atmosphere since 1979 reveals the southern Hemisphe re has cooled since then – despite 90% of the ‘cooling’ aerosols having been released in the northern hemisphere which is warming (Foster, 2001) . Reports show that, USA and Europe account for more than half of global GHG emissions, Sub-Saharan 1.59% and the small Island states 0.37% (Spore, 2008). Unfortunately sub-Saharan Africa would be hit parti cularly hard by climate change (IPCC, 2007). The implications for l ivelihoods and agriculture in countries of the South are inversely proportional to the nations’ responsibility for the problem (Ozor, 2009 ). The conclusion of fisher et al., (2007) is the overall effect of mode rate climate change on world food production may be small, as reduced prod uction in some areas is balanced by gains in others. However, it is beli eved vulnerability to climate change is systematically greater in develop ing countries, which in most cases are located in lower, water latitudes. S pecifically, sub-Saharan Africa negative impact by climate variation is indi cative agricultural production, including access to food, in many count ries and regions in Africa is projected to be severely compromised by c limate variability and change with the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yields potentials particularly along th e margins of semi-arid areas, are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the contine nt. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced b y up to 50% by 2020.

Figure 6.2 shows risks and impacts of climate chang e and the range of future scenarios and uncertainties as a result of f uture increase in temperature. An instance of natural resource despoliation is in the Congo rain forest. 183 Congo basin forest is a block of tropical rain fore st second in size to the Amazon in Brazil with more than half of it in one c ountry (Democratic Republic of Congo). The rain forest is gradually di sappearing as timber is exported in exchange for much needed foreign exchan ge. Their low income makes it difficult to finance adap tation and as such international community have an obligation to support them in adapting to climate change. And without such suppor t there is the likelihood development progress will be undermined. This view is consistent with the findings of Stern Review Report (2006) IPCC (2007) and WBAU (2003) who all forecast that food producti on in the tropics would be harmed. SOURCE: http://en.wikiped FIGURE 6.2 Risk and Agriculture and agricu Africa above 70% of 2007). The Stern Re contributes about 80% contributes 3 9% to G obtaining income but 184 edia.org/wiki/file:Risks and Impacts of _GlobalWar nd Impact of Global Warming AGRICULTURE riculture related activities are crucial t of the population is engaged in agricult Review (2006) similarly notes the 80% while in countries like Malawi GDP; agriculture provides not only th but most essentially address es the sta arming l to Africa. In ulture (UNDP, e rural sector i rural sector the means for status of food 185 security and its antithesis hunger. However, with i ncreasing incidence of flood, erosion, bush burning, pests and diseases, i ncreased temperature, erratic rainfall and droughts, agricultural product ivity under these conditions in Africa has been very low. While it is true crop yield is a derivative of the primary productivity of agro-ecological systems. However, A dejuwon (2006) postulates productivity as primarily achieved throu gh photosynthesis, a biochemical process in which atmospheric carbon dio xide in the presence of sunlight is combined with water to provide simpl e carbohydrates from which organic substances, whether in plants or anim als are fabricated. A higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmos phere is expected to create a gradient that could facilitate increased i ntake of carbon dioxide and therefore increase the rate of photosynthesis. He concludes this will be expected to produce higher yields of crops and h igher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide also induce plants to be more economical in the use of water. However climate change is changin g the picture.

In Africa, 75 to 250 million are exposed to water s tress due to climate change with this situation likely to worsen in future with increase in temperature rise of just 2 0 C, relative to the 1990 baseline (IPCC, 2007). A drop in agricultural productivity is antic ipated with global warming now reaching 2-4 0 C with more devastating effects in the tropics because crops are often close to their thermal opti mum in the region (WBGU, 2003). In many African countries, the areas suitable for agriculture are largely over exploited. This may tr igger regional food crises and further undermine the economic performan ce of weak and unstable states, like Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Nig er, Angola, DRC, and Sierra Leone. In Nigeria, food crisis undermine eco nomic growth thereby exacerbating destabilization, the collapse of socia l systems and violent conflicts (Ozor, 2009). UNEP (2012) reported some 13 million people in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia have been experiencing one of the worst humanitarian crises in decades. The region’s most s evere drought in 60 186 years caused widespread starvation and made access to clean water and sanitation extremely difficult. These conditions no t only directly affect local communities today, but also weaken their resi liency to cope with future droughts, diminishing prospects for water an d food security in the years to come (Munang and Nkem 2011). Temperatures in the region are expected to continue rising while rainfall patterns change (Anyah and Qui 2011). The crisis in the Horn of Africa is only one of the events in 2011 that exemplify the challenges to be met in the face of an increasingly variable and changing climate worldwide. Due to change in climatic conditions, crops could be planted earlier than exp ected while some may mature earlier than projected. There is the possibi lity of two or more cropping cycles during the same season. Water deman d and supply to crops will be modified to the detriment of crop yie lds as global warming progresses. However, in areas projected to have inc reased precipitation as a result of climate change, available water may inc rease and crop yields may improve (IPCC, 2001) such area include Equatori al Africa extending northwards to Nigeria and Western Sudan (Adejuwon, 2006). The major areas projected to have much reduced water supply a re all to be found in the southern Hemisphere. These include southern Afr ica, North of the equator, Northern West Africa are expected to exper ience increased acidity. The livestock production of systems in Africa would be vulnerable to climate change in respect to anticipated decreas e in rainfall in Sudan- Saharan zone and consequent reduction in the availa ble pastureland and declining availability of surface water resources f or animals. In fact, climate change leads to decrease livestock producti on resulting in impaired availability of animal protein including m eat, egg, milk and animal products such as hides and skins (Ozor, 2009 ). This has serious implications for food security. Climate change may also have an indirect effect on agriculture in the form of increased pest and disease activities o n farm lands. This is 187 predicated on the fact that moisture and temperatur e determine the occurrence and localization of pests. In general, p est and disease rectors do better when the temperature is higher under cond itions of optimum water supply (Adejuwon, 2006). Global warming is therefore likely to extend the ra nge of distribution of certain pests and diseases pole war ds. There is mutation of pest as agricultural productivity is dependent on p esticides and fertilizers for high yields. Similarly, livestock diseases may be affected by warmer and more humid condition as it enhance growth of ba cteria and mould on many types of stored foods and this would increase food spoilage thereby creating some specific toxicological health hazards . There is no doubt agriculture and agricultural prac tices will have to adapt to changes in the long run to ensure food sec urity for the survival of Man. Such adjustment will be constrained by social, economic, political and technological factors. In 2011 the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya became the home of 400 000 people fleeing drought and famine. Credit: Linda Ogwell, Oxfam 188 HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE Climate change will increase the vulnerability of s ome coastal populations of Africa. In IPCC (1995) projection, a bout 46 million per year are currently at risk of floods due to storm s urges and with a rise of sea level to 1- meter about 118 million would be at risk. Given the present state of protection, Africa will be most vu lnerable especially those with higher population densities like Lagos i n Nigeria, Banjul in Gambia and Alexandria in Egypt. This may increase t he number of environmental refugees displaced by natural disaste r. Migration may be one of the major short-term effects of climate chan ge in human settlements, industries and businesses. Crocodile on the street in 2012 floods in Makurdi, Nigeria HUMAN HEATH The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected directly or indirectly through increases in malnutrition; in creased deaths, diseases 189 and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhea diseases, increased frequency of cardio- respirator y diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change (IPCC, 1995).

Climate change is also projected to bring some bene fits in temperate areas, such as fewer death from cold expo sure and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission p otential of malaria in Africa. Climate change may also have direct impact on human health by influencing atmospheric concentration of pollutants . The level of concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere over a place is determined by rates of generalization and the rates of disposa l of the pollutants in the atmosphere. Both may be affected by indirect effect s of climate change which are expected to predominate, including increa ses in cases of malaria, dengue, yellow fever and some viral enceph alitis.

Many diseases in Africa such as malaria are known t o be sensitive to climate factors. A study in Ghana by Agyemang-Ye boah (2005) cit ed in Nkomo, et al., (2006) confirms a positive correlation between ma laria, cholera and meningitis, and climatic elements. The strong correlation between malaria epidemics and anomalously high rain fall has also been observed in both the east African highlands and in semiarid areas of Africa (Thomson et al., 2006, IRI, 2005). (See Figu re 6.3.). 190 FIGURE 6.3: PEOPLE AFFECTED BY NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE PERIOD 1971-2000 With the high economic costs of malaria in Africa, it is expected an increase in malaria incidence and prevalence could lead to an increase in poverty. HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Impacts of climate change on water resources are ve ry important for all sectors and regions in Africa. Climate change is ex pected to aggravate current stress on water resources from population g rowth and economic land-use change, including urbanization. IPCC (1995 ) models predict between one-third and one-half of existing mountain glacier mass could disappear over the next hundred years. This has bee n observed in the highest mountain in Africa, mountain Kilimanjaro wh ere there is reduced extent of glaciers and depth of snow covers which w ould affect the seasonal distribution of river flow and water suppl y for hydroelectric generation and agriculture (IPCC, 2001). An estimat ed 82 percent of the icecap 0f Mount Kilimanjaro when it was first thoro ughly surveyed in 1912 is now gone. According to recent projections, if recession continues at the present rate, the majority of the glaciers o n the mountain could vanish in 15 years (ICPAC, 2007). Glaciers on the o ther African mountains are also retreating very fast. The snow a nd glaciers act as a water tower, and several rivers are drying out in t he warm season due to the loss of this frozen reservoir Climate change wi ll lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle an d can have major impacts on regional water resources in Africa. Lake Chad river shared by 4 nations in Africa namely Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon is gradually drying up as aerial pictures taken from s atellite show its Nigerian catchment is drying up. IPCC (1995) predic ts by 2080 an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in A frica is projected under a range of climate scenarios. There will be increas es in rates of evaporation leading to reduced soil moisture storag e and reduction in 191 total animal volume of runoffs. Consequently, there will be changes in demand for water resources both for municipal and a gricultural uses as a result of global warming and climate change. Water consumption will increase with increasing dryness and heat. Overall, an increase in sea level will increase the salinity levels of groundwater in coastal areas as well as the surface water in the coastal areas especially Niger Delta region in Nigeria wher e increasing environmental degradation has undermine eco-integri ty and eco- efficiency giving rise to demands for resource cont rol . Source: ICPAC (2007) Flood in Dire Dawa in August 2006 due to the overfl ow of the Dechatu River LIVELIHOOD Livelihood assets involve people’s means of sustena nce and will be threatened with the increasing effects of climate c hange. With the 192 increased threats to productivity, farmers’ income will diminish and their ability to meet household needs (food, fiber, incom e etc) will be difficult (Ozor; 2009). Oceanic acidification and increase in surface water temperature especially around the coast will affect fish stocks and as a result, threaten the livelihood of small-scale fish ing communities in the area. IPCC (2007) report indicates that climate cha nge will pose great threats to communities that depend on fishing for t heir survival. The loss of lives, livelihoods assets, infrastructure etc fr om climate extreme events will further deepen the vulnerability of the poor. It is also predicted that for I 0 C warming, a significant number of developing count ries appears likely to experience net losses (WBGU, 2003). The p rojected distribution of economic impact is such that it would increase t he socio-economic disparity between developing countries and develope d countries, with disparity growing in step with warming, as impacts will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and th e poor persons within them. ECOSYSTEM AND BIODIVERSITY Global warming and climate variations will have sev ere impact on natural terrestrial ecosystem in different forms. Changes i n temperature, precipitation and relative humidity will cause ecol ogical stresses in marginal areas and will affect the dynamics and dis tribution of plant species and animals insects. IPCC Report (2007) sta tes that the resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this ce ntury by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associ ated disturbances (e.g. flooding drought, wildfire, insects, ocean, a nd acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land use change, pollution, and fragmentation of natural system, over exploitation of resources). Over the cause of this century, net carbon uptakes by terrestrial ecosystems are likely to peak before mid-century an d then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change. Accor ding to the AR4, approximately 20 to 30 per cent of plant and animal species assessed so 193 far are likely to be at increased risk of extinctio n if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 0C (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, increases in global average temperature exceeding 1 .5 to 2.5 0C and in concomitant atmospheric C0 2 concentrations will lead to major changes in ecosystem’s structure and function. This will be in the form of changes in species ecological interactions and shifts in sp ecies geographical ranges, with predominantly negative consequences fo r biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services e.g. water and food su pply in Africa. A new report released by environmental experts claim climate change could kill one in ten species by the end of the century i f the impacts of rising temperatures changing patterns of rainfall and incr easing acidity of the oceans are not mitigated. In Africa, any adverse change in temperature and hu midity will affect the wildlife. The fortunes of eco-based tour ism in several countries in East Africa and Southern Africa notably Kenya, U ganda, Botswana and South Africa will be adversely affected. Some of these countries rely extensively on eco-tourism for much needed foreign exchange earnings.

With increasing climate variations there has been g radual extinction of species. Thus, many species that are already declin ing presently could become extinct. If things continue as they are, the re would be a lot of extinctions at the end of this century. Global warming and climate change also impact on th e wetland.

Wetlands are basically water-logged ecosystems with particular physiochemical and biological processes and charact eristics are also susceptible to the effect of global warming. With c limate change many of the existing wetlands both coastal and continental would probably decrease in size, especially the continental ones ( Ayoade, 2003). There might be a significant change in the distribution p atterns of coastal wetlands due to rises in sea level and rainfall pat tern changes. MIGRATION Migration displaced 3% of the population of Africa since the 1960s 194 (Westing, 1994). Climate change and global warming are likely to have effect on the migration of some categories of peopl e in Africa. As WBGU (2007) states, the number of environmental migrants will substantially increase in future due to the impact of climate cha nge. In Africa, the increase in drought, soil degradation and growing w ater scarcity in combination with high population growth, unstable i nstitutions, poverty or a high level of dependency on agriculture means that there is a particular significant risk of environmental migrat ion occurring and increasing in scale (WBGU, 2007). People living in low lying Islands and deltas face the threat of being submerged by water, hence the only coping strategy will be to move out of the risk sites to m ore habitable areas.

As people move from one region to another in search of means of sustenance, there is the likelihood of conflict ens uing over resource control at the transit and destination points. Deri ving from this, hunger, starvation, disease and epidemic would be prevalent . Immigrants dislodged from their comfort zones to unknown terri tories with different ecological stresses will create new stress. A case in point is the constant movement of the Fulani’s in Nigeria across West Afr ica in search of grazing land is evidences of climate change engende red migration and is also a source of many communal clashes over grazing land.. RESOURCE CONFLICTS Climate change induced resource conflicts are antic ipated to increase as a result of struggle over scarce resources. Populatio n growth and resultant increases in supply and demand for resources are ex pected to heighten competition for limited food, water, oil and other resources. The conflict in Sudan is the first globally recognized resource conflict engendered by climate change. In Nigeria, Fulani cattlemen and fa rming communities struggle for grassland and water bodies. For exampl e, Mutumbiu and Mambila highlands in Taraba State and the Furfore c ommunity in Adamawa State. 195 EMPLOYMENT Employment is a component of availability of jobs a nd the necessary conditions for economic activities. However, with t he looming danger of climate change, there is a general decrease in avai lable jobs.

Consequently, people tend to downgrade their worth just to take any available job. With the climate stress where all re sources are now experiencing a downward spiral, industries that dep end on environment resources like livestock, agricultural products and fisheries for their raw materials are most likely to receive the initial im pact of climate variations. As this impact persists over time, the industries may adopt the measure of reducing their staff strength to cushion the impact and subsequently short down if the necessary inputs do not appreciate. In a recent research on bees, lovers of honey will have to start looking for alternative if serious action is not taken for the mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Climate change may be playing a role in driving down pollination as it prevents bees from carrying out t he vital job of pollination by upsetting their life cycles. Climate driven mismatch between the times when flowers open and when bees e merged from hibernation is a more important factor. The global communities have put in place an elabourate mechanism for addressing cli mate-driven vulnerability.