This is a complex, real situation. In this assignment, we will focus on understanding Marnac's perspective. Your report should describe the problem landscape, and weave answers to the following two s

Pirfenidone Valuation

Pirfenidone Valuation

Criteria

Ratings

Pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Q1: Decision Tree

Clear labels, correct values, proper use of min/max payoff, proper use of nodes

6 pts

Full Marks

4 pts

Good

The tree is mostly correct

3 pts

Fair

Some of the tree is correct

0 pts

No submission

6 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Q1a: Optimal Decision

Which drug should Marnac pursue? Why?

4 pts

Full Marks

Decision based on both expected return and risk

3 pts

Incorrect Decision w/Support

The decision ignores or incorrectly considers risk

2 pts

No Support for Decision

Whether right or wrong

0 pts

No Submission

4 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Q1b: Sensitivity Analysis

Based solely on expected return, how sensitive is the result? To which factors?

3 pts

Full Marks

2 pts

Good

Mostly correct

1 pts

Fair

partially correct

0 pts

No Submission

3 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Q2a: Decision Tree

Clear labels, correct values, proper use of min/max payoff, proper use of nodes

6 pts

Full Marks

4 pts

Good

The tree is mostly correct

3 pts

Fair

Some of the tree is correct

0 pts

No submission

6 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Q2b: EV Comparison

What is the expected value of the drug in this analysis, and why does it differ from that of Q1a?

3 pts

Full Marks

2 pts

Good

Explanation is partially correct

1 pts

Fair

Incorrect answer & explanation

0 pts

No Submission

3 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Q2c: Sensitivity Analysis

Identify two or three factors to which this value is most sensitive

2 pts

Full Marks

Factors correctly identified and supported

1 pts

Good

Partially correct

0 pts

No Submission

2 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Paper

Spelling, grammar, page length

1 pts

Full Marks

0 pts

Fair

Some issues

1 pts

Total Points: 25