respond with one paragraph for each page (3 paragraphs)

- ASSUMPTIONS

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Assumptions are one of the most important aspects of project management. Project plans should identify the assumptions necessary to provide reasonable estimates of the project task parameters (Leach, 2014, p. 153). There are two types of assumptions. One is Explicit and the other is Implicit. The objective of establishing explicit assumptions is to determine the elements whose existence or absence will influence the progress of the project. 

              Without the competence to make explicit assumptions, the project may become incapable. Unfit to deliver the value. A “frequent tendency is to write assumptions in the negative” (Leach, 2014, p.154). For instance, in a construction project, the explicit assumption would be weather conditions, budget, resource availability and duration of the project. These are assumptions that can affect the project deliverables, so they must be included in the project plan. When I worked in a construction company, our explicit assumption was that the weather condition will not delay our construction for more than twelve days.

               I believe there are assumptions which are implied that should be made explicit. Such as the house will be sold immediately upon completion. What happens if the house isn’t sold? Such assumptions should be fixed at the initial stage for all stakeholders to see and make plans for any contingency.

             Assumptions are sometimes potential loss in the project. They should be analyzed and managed so that the assumptions will streamline our understanding of every problem, and allow us to move against the uncertainty in the project.

References:

Leach, L.P. (2014). Critical chain project management. (3rd Ed.). Boston: Artech House.

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4. What assumptions should be made explicit for a project? Are there assumptions generally implied in a project plan that should be explicit--if so, what are they and why?    

In a project there a great deal of assumptions. One that comes to mind for a project developing a computer network, it is assumed that the engineers who are designing the network will have access to standard tools like computers or telephones. Another assumption that comes to mind that is simple, will there be restroom facilities where people are working? For some projects this makes more sense to define in the project plan than others. For a construction project this may need to be defined because it is not implicit that a job site will have these resources. In contrast an office facility would be assumed that these resources exist. Leach’s addresses assumptions by stating, “Project Plans should identify the key assumptions necessary to provide reasonable estimates of the project task parameters: the resources required and task duration.” (Leach, 2014). To elaborate on this he includes examples like, “an assumption for a construction schedule may relate to the weather (e.g., no more than six days of outside work lost due to inclement weather). An assumption might address actions outside the direct control of the project (e.g., permit review time by regulatory agency not to exceed 30 days).” 

Assumptions can be dangerous to projects if not handled with the due diligence they need. It is easy to think that the less assumptions, and the more definition that exists, the better off the project is. This isn’t necessarily true though. While it is important to define some of these assumptions, the more definition that is added in some cases clouds the clarity of the project and over complicates it. For example, at your nieces birthday party what was decided that the thermostat needed to be set to. Were the blinds on the windows open or closed. These are items that aren’t pertinent to the performance of the project, or in this case of the party.

Another reason that would indicate if an assumption should be included is the magnitude if the anomaly is encounters. In the same analogy as above, If the thermostat is set to 100 degrees then it could be a problem, but to mitigate if turning it down to a comfortable temperature is simple as turning a dial it is less likely to be needed as a defined assumption. 

2 take aways I see from Leach about assumptions are to 1. Make sure they are identified by the Project Plan, and 2. Make sure they are written positively.  

Leach, L., P. (2014). Critical chain project management (3rd ed.). Norwood, MA: Artech House

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Rohr: Duration Estimates

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            Speaking from recent experience with work on my thesis, at least from the perspective of Army project managers, there were some key issues that caused concern when it came to CCPM and task estimates. More than one Officer familiar with CCPM that did not favor it as a method for the Army stated that they did not appreciate how CCPM arbitrarily took 50% off of any task estimate. They felt that planners and subject matter experts should be trusted to time tasks based on their experience. They also did not appreciate what they perceived to be a false sense of urgency that CCPM creates by cutting task durations and adding buffers.

            Leech (2014) discusses these issues in Chapter 6 from a standpoint of making sure managers practice open communication. For example, on page 160 of our text he points out that it is a good idea for a project planner to ask someone giving estimates how quickly they could do a task if everything went right. That is where the 50% chance of a successful completion comes into play – best case scenarios. Managers should empower employees through CCPM to reach best-case estimates, not punish them for missing a 50% chance deadline. Managers need to let employees know that CCPM is based on a best-case scenario in order to save time. The 50% estimates are not there to force people to work faster, they are there for efficiency sake if everything is running smoothly. If things aren’t proceeding according to plan, the buffers are still there for safety and to mitigate risk. CCPM isn’t about taking time a way and forcing harder work, it’s about starting the next task and promptly moving on, ensuring any savings that can be had are passed forward through the project. Relaying the core values of CCPM falls on managers. Managers must be better communicators and ensure there is understanding as to a method, not just simple compliance.   

Reference:                                                                                                                                  Leach, L., P. (2014). Critical chain project management (3rd ed.). Norwood, MA: Artech House.

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