INTL454

STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 1 School of Security and Global Studies INTL 454 Forecasting Terrorism Credit Hours: 3 Length of Course: 8 Weeks Prerequisite: none Table of Contents Instructor Information Evaluation Procedures Course Description Grading Scale Course Scope Course Outline Course Objectives Policies Course Delivery Method Online Library and Turnitin Course Resources Selected Bibliography Instructor Information Instructor: Name and link to bio Office Hours via Adobe Connect: [1 hour/wk if teaching one course, 2 hours/wk if teaching 2+ courses], and by appointment. Please contact your instructor through the Messages tab in the classroom. After the class is over, instructor contact information: @mycampus.apus.edu. Table of Contents Course Description (Cat alog) STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 2 INTL 454 Forecasting Terrorism (3 credit hours) This course examines the theoretical underpinnings of the phenomenon of terrorism, actual and planned cases of chemical and biological weapons use and the modern threat of improvised weapons of mass destruction. The course surveys traditional and newer methods of forecasting terrorism:

intuition -based, profiling, conflict vulnerability analysis and prognosis (early warning), etc. It concludes with a brief overview of the state of the terrorist threat almost a decade after 9/11 . Table of Contents Course Scope As a 400 -level course, this course provides a higher level of knowledge building on the material taught at the 300 level. The purpose and scope of this course is to enable the student to build a deeper understanding of the discipline. Table of Contents Course Objectives After successfully completing this course, you will be able to: CO -1: Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists. CO -2: Explain how WMD signatures and terrorist WMD strategy and precedents are critical in forecasting. CO -3: Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelligence forecasting methodologies. CO -4: Demonstrate how elements of the post -9/11 threat environment affect the ability to forecast terrorist WMD activity. STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 3 CO -5: Apply a terrorist forecasting methodology to a hypothetical attack scenario. Table of Contents Course Delivery Method This course, delivered via distance learning, will enable students to complete academic work in a flexible manner, completely online. Course materials and access to an online learning management system will be available to each student. Online assignments are due by Sunday at 11:55 pm ET and include all written assignments, examinations, and research papers submitted for grading. Weekly Forum questions (accomplished in groups in a Forum) require an initial response by Thursday at 11:55 pm ET, with all othe r required responses due by Sunday at 11:55 pm ET. The assigned faculty will support the students throughout this eight -week course. Table of Contents Course Resources Required Course Textbooks Jame s J. F. Forest and Russell D. Howard . Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism , Second Edition . New York: McGraw Hill, 2013. The VitalSource e-book is provided via the APUS Bookstore. Please visit http://apus .libguides.com/er.php and search by the course number (ex: LITR210) to access your required resources. John Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth N. McKay and John E. Boon . Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior * Rand, Santa Monica, CA, 2004 . E-book available free on RAND site. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG1 26.pdf Sundri Khalsa . Forecasting Terrorism: A Web -Based Approach . Occasional Paper Number Eleven, Center for Strategic Intelligence research, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2004. STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 4 https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security -and -global - studies - common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20for ec asting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf Stephen M. Maurer, ed. WMD Terrorism Science and Policy Choices . MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2009 . http:/ /site.ebrary.com/lib/apus/docDetail.action?docID=10326190 The follow ing book is recommended : Turabian, Kate L. 20 14 . A Manual for Writers of Research Papers, Theses, and Dissertations . 8th ed. The University of Chicago Press. Required Readings  Peer -reviewed journal articles, book chapters, e xternal websites and other assigned readings are found in the Lessons area of the classroom.   All readings found in the APUS library have been consolidated into an “E -Reserve” list located in the “Security an d Global Studies” portal, INTL454 Course Guide. Instructions for accessing the E -Reserve list are listed below and are also located in the corresponding “Lessons” folder. If you’re already logged into the classroom, you can click on the following address: http://apus.campusguides.com/INTL454 . After entering the classroom, select “Library” in the left hand menu within Sakai. You will be redirected to the APUS library. Select “Program/School Portals.” Selec t “Security and Global Studies.” Select “INTL454 Critical Analysis | Course Guide” from the dropdown menu (it may take a minute to load). Select “E -Reserves tab” from the upper left corner of the menu. Select “Continue.”  Weekly Lesson Notes and videos or audio files are found in the Lessons area of the classroom. Table o f Contents Evaluation Procedures The course grade is based on the following assessments: STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 5 Discussion Forums – 25 percent Each week, a discussion question is provided and posts should reflect an assimilation of the readings. Students are required to provide a substantive initial post by Thursday a t 11:55 pm ET and respond to 2 or more classmates by Sunday 11:55 pm ET. Forum posts are graded on timeliness, relevance, knowledge of the weekly readings, and the quality of original ideas. Midterm Test - 10 percent This assignment is an open book, timed exam to test knowledge and assimilation of the course objectives. The use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory. Progress Assignment: Terrorism Intelligence Indicators Exercise - 15 percent Specialized Exercise. One page effort reflecting your research and analysis. Final Test - 20 percent This assignment is an open book, timed exam to test knowledge and assimilation of the course objectives. The use of required texts and read ings from this course is mandatory. Final Assignment: Research Analysis Paper – 30 percent This assignment is a n essay assignment to test knowledge and assimilation of the course objectives. The exclusive use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory. Assignments Percentage Discussion Forums 25 percent Midterm Progress Assignment Final Test Final Assignment 10 percent 15 percent 20 percent 30 percent STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 6 Table of Contents 8 – Week Course Outline Wee k Topic Course Objective(s) Reading s Assignments 1 Introduction and History of Terrorism.

Atypical Signal Analysis & Processing (ASAP) Methodology, Architecture and Data. CO -3 Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelligence forecasting methodologies . Maurer, pp. 12 - 14. Forest & Howard, pp. 29 - 37. RAND text, ch.

1-3. Other Readings in Lessons link Read Week 1 announcement and lesson plan Post introduction and syllabus acknowledgmen t in Intro/Syllabus Acknowledgmen t FORUM. Due at end of week 1. Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of week 1 TOTAL 100 percent STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 7 2 WEEK 2: The ASAP Structured Analytical technique and Al Qaida Modus Operandus. CO -1 Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists CO -3 Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelli gence forecasting methodologies Maurer, pp. 29 - 40. Forest & Howard, pp. 725 - 735. RAND text, ch.

4-7, appendix A. “Week 2 Lesson” link Contents Read Week 2 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of Week 2 .

3 Week 3: Historical Terrorist Case Studies, Motivations/Psycholog y and Precedents CO -1 Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists CO -2 Explain how WMD signatures and terrorist WMD strategy and precedents are critical in forecasting. Maurer, pp. 15 - 22, 483 - 492. Forest & Howard, pp. 85 - 89, 270 - 285, 305 -322. "Week 3 Lesson” link Contents Read Week 3 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of Week 3. EXAM 1: Open Book Exam #1.

Due by the end of week 3. 4 Week 4: Historical Case Studies, The Domestic Terrorism - CBRN Threat CO -1 Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass Forest & Howard, pp. 39 - 50. “Week 4 Lesson” Read Week 4 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of Week 4. STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 8 destruction by terrorists. CO -4 Demonstrate how elements of the post - 9/11 threat environment affect the ability to forecast terrorist WMD activity. link Contents 5 Week 5: Historical Challenges of Acquiring/Producing and Disseminating CBRN agents CO -1 Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists. Maurer, pp. 60 - 91. Forest & Howard, pp. 753 - 764. “Week 5 Lesson” link Contents Read Week 5 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of Week 5. 6 Week 6: Terrorism Intelligence Collections Indicators/Structured Analytical Techniques & Current Terrorism - WMD Threat. CO -3 Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelligence forecasting methodologies .

CO -4 Demonstrate how elements of the post - Khalsa, pp. 1 -78. “Week 6 Lesson” link Contents Read Week 6 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of Week 6. Assignment: Terrorist Intelligence Indicator List.

Due at end of Week 6. STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 9 9/ 11 threat environment affect the ability to forecast terrorist WMD activity. 7 Week 7: Conventional Intelligence Terrorism Forecasting, Profiling and Link Analysis CO -3 Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelligence forecasting methodologies Forest & Howard , pp. 705 - 707. “Week 7 Lesson” link Contents Read Week 7 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of Week 7. Assignment: Research Analysis Paper.

Due at end of Week 8 8 Week 8: The Terrorism -WMD Nexus, Course Wrap Up CO -3 Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelli gence forecasting methodologies CO -5 Apply a terrorist forecasting methodology to a hypothetical attack scenario. Forest & Howard , pp. 739 - 748. “Week 8 Lesson” link Contents Read Week 8 announcement and lesson plan Graded forum assignment: Due at end of Week 8. Final Open Book Test: Due end of week 8 Policies STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 10 Please see the Student Handbook to reference all University policies. Quick links to frequently asked question about policies are listed below. Drop/Withdrawal Policy Plagiarism Policy Extension Process and Policy Disability Accommodations Citation and Reference Style Attention Please: Stude nts will follow the Turabian/Chicago Style as the sole citation and reference style used in written work submitted as part of coursewo rk to the University. See http://www.apus.edu/Online -Library/tutorials/chicago.htm . All written submissions should be submitted in Times N ew Roman 12pt font with 1” margins, typewritten in double -spaced format. Graduate -level work is expected to be free of grammar, usage, and style errors. Late Assignments Students are expected to submit classroom assignments by the posted due date and to complete the course according to the published class schedule. As adults, students, and working professionals , I understand you must manage competing demands on your time. Should you need additional time to complete an assignment , please contact me before the due date so we can discuss the situation and determine an acceptable resolution. Routine submission of late assignments is unacceptable and will result in a point loss of 5% per day late. Netiquette Online universities promote the advance ment of knowledge through positive and constructive debate – both inside and outside the classroom. Forums on the Internet, however, can occasionally degenerate into needless insults and “flaming.” Such activity and the loss of good mann ers are not acceptable in a university setting – basic academic rules of good behavior and proper “Netiquette” must persist. Remember that you are in a place for the rewards and excitement of learning which does not include descent to personal attacks or student attempts to stifle the Forum of others.  Technology Limitations: While you should feel free to explore the full -range of creative composition in your formal papers, keep e -mail layouts simple. The Sakai classroom may not fully support MIME or HT ML encoded messages , which means that bold face, italics, STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 11 underlining, and a variety of color -coding or other visual effects will not translate in your e -mail messages.  Humor Note: Despite the best of intentions, jokes and especially satire can easily get lost or taken seriously. If you feel the need for humor, you may wish to add “emoticons” to help alert your readers: ; -), : ),  Table of Contents Online Library The Online Library is available to enrolled students and faculty from inside the electronic campus. This is your starting point for access to online books, subscription periodicals, and Web resources that are designed to support your classes and generally not available through search engines on the open Web. In addition, the Online Library provides access to special learning resources , which the Univer sity has contracted to assist with your studies. Questions can be directed to [email protected] .  Charles Town Library and Inter Library Loan: The University maintains a special library with a limited number of su pporting volumes, collection of our professors’ publication, and services to search and borrow research books and articles from other libraries.  Electronic Books: You can use the online library to uncover and download over 50,000 titles , which have been s canned and made available in electronic format.  Electronic Journals: The University provides access to over 12,000 journals , which are available in electronic form and only through limited subscription services.  Tutor. com : AMU and APU Civilian & Coast Guard students are eligible for 10 free hours of tutoring provided by APUS. Tutor.com connects you with a professional tutor online 24/7 to provide help with assignments, studying, test prep, resume writing, and more.

Tutor.com is tutoring the way i t was meant to be. You get expert tutoring whenever you need help, and you work one -to -one with your tutor in your online classroom on your specific problem until it is done. INTL454 Library Guide The Intelligence Studies Program Portal provides access to collections of trusted sites on the Open Web and licensed resources on the Deep Web, with excellent references, links and a bibliography for this course and similar STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online cours e description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS. 12 undergraduate intelligence studi es courses. See http://apus.campusguides.com/content.php?pid=77001&search_terms=intel ligence+studies The APUS Terrorism Studies portal is at http://apus.campusguides.com/content.php?pid=78082&search_terms=intel ligence+studies The INTL454 Library Guide is a t apus.campusguides.com/INTL454 Program Portals contain topical and methodological resources to help launch general research in the degree program. To locate, search by department name, or navigate by school. Turnitin.com Faculty require assignments be submitted to Turnitin.com. Turnitin.com will analyze a paper and report instances of potential plagiarism for the student to edit before submitting it for a grade. The instructor will post information in the classroom on student procedures. Table of Contents Selected Bibliography Table of Contents