Assignment 5

1 Southern Oregon University Research Center Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration Summary and Data Tables from a Longitudinal Study of Ashland Residents SOUTHERN OREGON UNIV ERSITY RESEARCH CENT ER January 10, 2014 Authored by: Mark A. Shibley, Ph.D. Sara Averbeck and Amy Lindgren, Research Assistants Submitted to TNC; Contract #ORFO -11/02/11 - db1; USFS ARRA A FR/Collins SW Oregon Fire Study 2 Southern Oregon University Research Center (Intentionally blank) 3 Southern Oregon University Research Center Table of Contents Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 4 Research Methodology ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 4 Opinions about AFR Treatments ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 5 Opinion Change from 2012 to 2013 ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 7 Appendix A: Online Survey Instrument ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 9 Appendix B: Panel Demographics ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 29 Appendix C: Frequency Distributions, Closed and Open -ended Questions ................................ ............... 32 Part 1: Visits to Forests in the Ashland Watershed ................................ ................................ ................ 32 Part 2: Forest Conditions and Responsible Management in the Ashland Watershed ............................ 33 Part 3: Meaning of Forest Restoration ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 34 Part 4: Knowledge of AFR Project ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 35 Part 5: O pinions about AFR Treatments ................................ ................................ ................................ . 38 Appendix D: Paired Comparisons, April 2012 and September 2014 ................................ ......................... 46 Bibliography ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 53 4 Southern Oregon University Research Center Introduction This report summarizes the results from a second public opinion survey measuring beliefs and attitudes about forest conditions and management practices in the Ashland Creek watershed. The survey was made possible by a gran t from the Collins Trust Northwest Conservation Fund, which supports work by The Nature Conservancy seeking to restore frequent -fire adapted forests in southern Oregon, and funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. As part of the multi party monitoring effort to measure public support for the Ashland Forest Resil iency Stewardship Project (AFR), baseline data were gathered from a random sample of Ashland residents in April 2012 (Shibley & Schultz, 2012) . A sub -sample of those respondents was re -surveyed in September 2013 to measure change in attitudes toward fuel -reduction and forest restoration following the implementation of AFR treatments in the Ashland watershed. Research Methodology This follow -up su rvey was designed to evaluate public awareness of and support for the AFR, a key objective of the AFR Monitoring Plan 1 (Metlen & Borgias, 2013) . By comparing these results to baseline data from the 2012 survey, we can meas ure change in the level of public support for fuel -reduction and forest restoration in response to the implementation of both commercial and non -commercial treatments in the AFR project area. An em ail survey , using Dillman’s (2007) Tailored Design Method , was administered by Southern Oregon University Research Center between August 21 , 2013 and September 20, 2013 . Subject s were contact ed by email up to five times using Qualtrics, an online survey tool. The questionnaire included both open and closed -ended que stions (see Appendix A) exploring beliefs about forests in the Ashland Creek watershed and a ttitudes toward s AFR goals and newly implemented treatments . The study p opulation was adult residents of Ashland , Oregon and the surrounding area . The sampling fra me was registered voters in October 2011. Our 2013 sample (n=289) was a sub -set of respondents from the 2012 survey (n=597) who agreed to be contacted for follow -up surveys. Of the 289 people contacted, 151 start ed and 124 complete d the online survey, thu s generating a panel of respondents (n=124) who completed both surveys. A comparison of 2013 panel r esults to 2012 sample results and population parameters (see Appendix B) shows no significan t bias by gender and residence. However, o ur sample is biased toward middle age, middle income and college educated respondents. The 2012 sample was biased in these same ways, and the 2013 panel accentuates this bias. 1 Project monitoring plans are available on the AFR website at http://ashland.or.us/Page.asp?NavID=15104 . 5 Southern Oregon University Research Center Opinion s about AFR Treatment s A descriptive summary of all results from the 2013 survey are report ed in Appendix C. Following is a summary of the key findings about public opinions toward AFR treatments. 1. A majority of panel respondents heard more about AFR since completing the 2012 survey , but most still know only a little about specific project goal s. The local newspaper is by far the most common source of information about AFR. 2. Panel respondents favor maintaining late -seral, open forest conditions in the Ashland Creek watershed by thinning smaller trees from dense forest stands. If the watershed management goal is t o balance fire safety, water quality, wildlife habitat, natural beauty and recreation (see Appendix B: Q13) , then respondents think higher proportions of forest conditions 2 and 4 should be maintained across the landscape, compared to conditions 1 and 3 (see Appendix C: Figure 2) .2 In open -ended comments, respondents explicitly encouraged managers to thin forest conditions 1 and 3 (see Appendix C: Figures 3 and 5). 3. Panel respondents favor forests closer to historic than to current c onditions in the Ashland Creek watershed .3 Respondents’ o pinion about desired forest proportions can be compared to current and historic reference proportions. Historically 45% the forested landscape would have been in the late -seral condition of large old trees with open ly spaced canopies , represented in Condition Photo 2 . T his condition currently occurs on only 1% of the forested landscape in and around the Ashland watershed, and respondents would increase the proportion to 42%. M ultilayered late -ser al, closed -canopy forest , as in Condition Photo 4 , historically comprised 15% of the landscape, currently exists over 24% of the landscape, and respondents desire 28% . Condition Photo 1 and 3 represent formerly open stand s in which many younger trees have grown in , creating a closed -canopy patch which could be mistaken for late -seral closed forest shown in Condition Photo 4, but respondents differentiated these and suggested th at the desirable landscape proportion s for these encroached forests types should be relatively less at 16 and 7% respectively. Condition Photo 3 could be interpreted as a mid -seral closed successional class which historically would have only comprised 5% of the forest , but now comprises 33 % of the 2 Darren Borgias provided the following description of c ondition photos (see Appendix B: Q13) as they relate to seral stage from the LANDFIRE dataset (Wildland Fire Leadership Council, 2013) . The comparison is most relevant at the watershed scale of Bear Creek, including Ashland Creek , a landscape predominantly made up of the Mediterranean California Dry -Mesic - and the Mesic - Mixed Conifer Forest and Woodland Biophysical Settings , also mapped by LANDFIRE in the following groups: Ponderosa Pine -Incense Cedar, Douglas -fir-White Fir -Sugar Pine, and Ponderosa Pine -California Black Oak. Condition Photo 1 : At -risk, formerly open, old, dry forest densely crowded by small, young trees. Condition Photo 2 : Open old, dry forest not crowded by young trees . Condition Photo 3 : At risk, formerly ope n, large, old, dry forest densely crowed by tall younger trees. Condition Photo 4 : Dense, mixed species, moist, old growth forest (late seral closed). 3 This analysis was developed by Darren Borgias. 6 Southern Oregon University Research Center landscape. Both photos 1 and 3 repre sent stands identified for thinning from below by scientists and respondents alike. 4. Considering several pre - and post -treatment photo pairs, most panel respondents think the cut “looks good ”; AFR project managers shouldn’t remove more or few er trees. Wh ile there is substantial variation in this opinion , more respondents favor a slightly heavier cut than favor a slightly lighter cut (see Appendix C, Figure 7). There is growing support for removing enough large and small trees if science provides a histori cal basis for it. 5. According to written comments about treatment photos, many panel respondents said in effect “the forest looks good.” Respondents were asked to provide comments about the work being done in the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project, as repres ented by photos (see Appendix C, Figure 8). The word cloud image below, where words are scaled to frequency of use across all com ments, suggest s a positive view of AFR treatments. 6. Panel r espondents are satisfied with AFR treatments. Based on post -treatment photos of commercial thinning and brush removal, three -four ths of panel respondents indicated they were satisfied with the work being done by AFR (see Appendix C, Table 13) . 7 Southern Oregon University Research Center Opinion Change from 2012 to 2013 Only panel responses are used to estima te opinion change . The tables and charts in Appendix D report response proportions and highlight change between 2012 and 2013. Most change over the eighteen month period between the two surveys is relatively small (less than 10%). Whether the changes are statistical ly significan t is determined by using one -sample t-tests based on mean differences (i.e., the average change in raw scores ) for each question . Statistical significan ce is reported if the p-value is below .05. A lack of statistical significanc e means that we can’t be sure our sample results reflect real o pinion change in the population even if there is some observable change in our sample data . The following summary emphasizes change that is both substantial and statistically significant. 1. Resp ondents continued to visit the watershed during the AFR project . Panel respondents reported a drop in visits to the watershed between 2012 and 2013 , but the change was not statistically significant. O ne -third of panel respondents ma de more than 10 vis its last year. 2. There is growing support for forest restoration on public land in southwest Oregon . Nearly half of panel respondents believe that public forests in the region nee d large - scale restoration (up 10 percent); and increasing numbers, nearly a t hird of respondents, agree that forest restoration should remove trees, large and small, if science suggests that is what the landscape used to look like (up 14 percent , representing a doubling from 2012 ). Slightly more than half of respondents believe tha t, prior to European settlement, forests were generally more open than they are today (up 7 percent , though this change is not statistically significant ). 3. There is growing support for commercial thinning as a fuel -reduction too l. There was a big, statisti cally significant increase in support for commercial thinning as a legitimate fuel -reduction tool that resources managers should use more often. There also appears to be growing support for the use of controlled burning as a legitimate fuel -reduction tool , though that change was not statistically significant. 4. Completing AFR is a high priority, despite a drop in the strength of support of AFR goals. Based on photos of the work being done, almost a ll panel respondents agree that completing AFR and maintainin g AFR treatments should be a high priority even though the s trength of support for AFR goals among respondents eroded some between 2012 and 2013 , from “strongly approve” to “somewhat approve” . 8 Southern Oregon University Research Center 5. Among AFR partners, The Nature Conservancy continues to be the most trusted group . With the exception of the Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative, no changes in the level of trust in various groups to make good decisions about fuel reduction and forest restoration are statistically significant, and the i ncreased t rust in SOFRC may not be meaningful since the group’s name changed from the first to the second survey. 6. In sum, there is ongoing support for AFR and growing support for forest restoration in southwest Oregon more generally . This support includ es the use of commercial thinning as legitimate fuel -reduction tool, and t here remains very little support for simply leaving public forests al one. According to the 2012 survey, t hese attitudes toward forest management rest on underlying forest values tha t are both eco - centric (biodiversity, life sustaining) and anthropocentric (clean water and recreation) (Shibley & Schultz, 2012) . If the public comes to see fuel -reduction and restoration efforts as undermining these basic values, support for future work can be expected to erode quickly. 9 Southern Oregon University Research Center Appendix A: Online Survey Instrument 10 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q1 11 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q2 Q4 Q3 12 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q5 13 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q6 14 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q7 15 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q8 16 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q9 Q10 17 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q12 Q11 18 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q13 3 19 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q14 20 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q16 Q15 21 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q18 Q17 22 Southern Oregon University Research Center 23 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q19 24 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q20 Q21 25 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q22 26 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q23 27 Southern Oregon University Research Center 28 Southern Oregon University Research Center Q25 Q26 Q24 29 Southern Oregon University Research Center Appendix B: Panel Demographics 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % Female Male CHART B1: Panel result compared to initial sample and population, by Gender Population Sample Panel 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 + CHART B2: Panel result compared to initial sample and population, by Age Cohort Population Sample Panel 30 Southern Oregon University Research Center 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000 CHART B3: Panel result compared to initial sample and population, by Income Population Sample Panel 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % Inside Ashland City Limits Surrounding Area CHART B4: Panel result compared to initial sample and population, by Residence Populatio Sample Panel 31 Southern Oregon University Research Center 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 % 40 % 45 % 50 % High School or Less Associate Degree Bachelors Degree Graduate Degree CHART B5: Panel result compared to initial sample and population, by Education (highest degree attained) Population Sample Panel 32 Southern Oregon University Research Center Appendix C: Frequency Distributions , Closed and Open -ended Questions Part 1: Visits to Forests in the Ashland Watershed TABLE 1: Visits to the Watershed About how many times during the last 12 mo nths have you entered the forest in the Ashland watershed, beyond Lithia Park? (Q1) Percent Count Greater than 10 34.7 43 6 to 10 10.5 13 3 to 5 15.3 19 1 or 2 17.7 22 None 21.8 27 Total 100% 124 FIGURE 1: What do you do, primarily, when you enter the forest in the Ashland watershed above town and beyond Lithia Park? (Q2) The W ordle image above represents respondents’ word usage in open -ended questions , scaled to frequency acr oss all comments . Illustrative comments from Q2 : Case 2321: “Go for a hike to get away from it all” Case 3927: “ …hike and enjoy all the natural beauty of the area, the smell of the air, the natural sounds, the green of the trees and the topography, al l of the it!” 33 Southern Oregon University Research Center Part 2: Forest Conditions and Responsible Management in the Ashland Watershed TABLE 2: Overall Health of the Watershed In general, how would you rate the overall condition of the forests in the Ashland Creek watershed? (Q3) Percent Count Very healthy 29.8 37 Somewhat healthy 40.3 50 Don’t know 20.2 25 Somewhat unhealthy 9.7 12 Very unhealthy 0.0 0 Total 100% 124 TABLE 3: Chance of Fire in the Ashland Watershed In your opinion, what are the chances of a large -scale, high severity fire occurring in the Ashland watershed in the next five years? (Q4) Percent Count Very Likely 22.6 28 Somewhat Likely 50.8 63 Don’t Know 14.5 18 Somewhat Unlikely 12.1 15 Very Unlikely 0.0 0 Total 100% 124 TABLE 4: Opinion about Wildfires in Sout hwest Oregon Forests Please respond to each statement to the best of your ability by indicating whether you believe it is generally false, generally true, or that you are not sure. (Q5) True False Not Sure Total (n=124) Years of fire suppression has inc reased the risk of severe wildfire in our regions forest. 78.2 6.5 15.3 100% Fires play an important role in controlling insect and disease outbreaks in forests. 89.5 2.4 8.1 100% Fires are not important for maintaining wildlife habitat. 12.1 77.4 10.5 100% Some trees, like ponderosa pine, grow better in open, sunny areas than in shaded ones. 74.2 1.6 24.2 100% Many plants require occasional fires so that new seeds or seedlings can sprout. 89.5 4.0 6.5 100% Fires in one year are not influenced by fires in previous years. 9.7 70.2 20.2 100% Prior to European settlement, forests were generally more open than they are today. 52.4 9.7 37.9 100% Climate change has directly affected the frequency and severity of forest fires. 62.9 14.5 22.6 100% 34 Southern Oregon University Research Center Part 3: M eaning of Forest Restoration TABLE 5: Attitudes to Forest Restoration Please tell us your level of agreement with the following statements. (Q6&7) Strongly Agree Agree Uncertain Disagree Strongly Disagree Total (n=124) Restoration efforts should retu rn forests to conditions more like those before European settlement. 8.9 31.7 38.2 17.1 4.1 100% The main purpose of restoration should be to promote well -functioning forest ecosystems. 43.5 51.6 2.4 2.4 0.0 100% Forest restoration should alter fire beha vior by reducing the fuel that has accumulated in the forest due to fire suppression and past management. 29.8 55.6 12.9 1.6 0.0 100% We should allow forests to evolve without any more human intervention. 0.0 6.5 21.8 50.0 21.8 100% Forest restoration sh ould remove enough trees, large and small, in a particular stand if scientific evidence suggests that is what the landscape used to look like. 10.6 19.5 39.0 23.6 7.3 100% Forest restoration efforts should be used to help recover native plant and animal s pecies that are rare and endangered in order to maintain biodiversity. 29.8 54.0 9.7 3.2 3.2 100% The main purpose of forest restoration should be to protect humans from fire. 2.4 13.0 27.6 50.4 6.5 100% Large trees should never be removed in forest rest oration efforts. 7.3 23.6 25.2 30.1 13.8 100% Public forest lands in southwest Oregon need large - scale restoration. 14.6 34.1 43.9 7.3 0.0 100% Forest restoration efforts should focus only on the Wildland Urban Interface (i.e. the forest edge near town). 2.4 12.1 23.4 43.5 18.5 100% TABLE 6: Mechanical Vegetation R emoval 35 Southern Oregon University Research Center In my opinion, mechanical vegetation removal in the Ashland watershed is … (Q8_1) Percent Count A legitimate tool that resource managers should use more often. 58.5 72 Somethin g that should be done only infrequently, in carefully selected areas. 26.0 32 I know too little to make a judgment about this topic. 13.8 17 A practice that should not be considered because it creates too many negative impacts. 1.6 2 An unnecessary prac tice 0.0 0 Total 100% 12 3 TABLE 7: Commercial Thinning and Density Management In my opinion, commercial thinning and density management in the Ashland watershed is … (Q8_2) Percent Count A legitimate tool that resource managers should use more often. 74.0 91 Something that should be done only infrequently, in carefully selected areas. 17.9 22 I know too little to make a judgment about this topic. 6.5 8 A practice that should not be considered because it creates too many negative impacts. 0.8 1 An unnecessary practice 0.8 1 Total 100% 123 TABLE 8: Controlled Burning In my opinion, controlled burning in the Ashland watershed is … (Q8_3) Percent Count A legitimate tool that resource managers should use more often. 58.5 72 Something that should be done only infrequently, in carefully selected areas. 27.6 34 I know too little to make a judgment about this topic. 9.8 12 A practice that should not be considered because it creates too many negative impacts. 2.4 3 An unnecessary practice 1.6 2 Tot al 100% 123 Part 4: Knowledge of AFR Project 36 Southern Oregon University Research Center TABLE 9: Knowledge of AFR Since completing the initial survey in Spring 2012, have you heard or read more about the Ashland Forest Resiliency Stewardship Project (AFR)? (Q9) Percent Count Yes, I’ve heard m ore about it and know a lot about the project goals. 8.9 11 Yes, I’ve heard more about it and know a little about the project goals. 36.3 45 Yes, I’ve heard more about it but don’t know what it involves. 15.3 19 No, I’ve nothing else about it. 39.5 49 Total 100% 124 TABLE 10: Where Respondent Heard of AFR If you heard more about AFR , where did you hear about it? (Q10) (circle all that apply ) Percent Count (n=75) I attended a public tour about AFR in the watershed. 2.7 2 I attended a public lec ture or meeting that discussed AFR. 6.8 5 I read about AFR on the City of Ashland’s AFR website. 17.6 13 I read AFR newsletters circulated via email. 21.6 16 I heard about AFR from US Forest Service employees or media. 20.3 15 I heard about AFR from Ci ty of Ashland employees or media. 35.1 26 I heard about AFR from Nature Conservancy employees or media. 16.2 12 I heard about FR from Lomakatsi Restoration Project employees or media. 20.3 15 I read about AFR in the local newspaper. 83.8 62 I heard about AFR on the television. 14.9 11 I heard about AFR from friends or neighbors. 24.3 18 I heard about AFR from kids in school programs. 0.0 0 Other 8.1 6 37 Southern Oregon University Research Center TABLE 11: Approval of AFR’s goals Do you approve or disapprove of AFR’s goals? (Q11) Perce nt Count Strongly Approve 50.0 62 Somewhat Approve 42.7 53 No Opinion 4.8 6 Somewhat Disapprove 0.8 1 Strongly Disapprove 1.6 2 Total 100% 124 TABLE 12: Trust in Organizations Please indicate your level of trust in the following groups to make g ood decisions about fuel reduction and forest restoration in the Ashland watershed. If you have no basis for judgment, please mark “no opinion”. (Q12) Full Trust Some Trust No Trust No Opinion Total (n=124) U.S. Forest Service 35.5 47.6 12.1 4.8 100% City of Ashland 16.1 68.5 11.3 4.0 100% The Nature Conservancy 56.5 34.7 1.6 7.3 100% Lomakatsi Restoration Project 46.0 25.0 1.6 27.4 100% Ashland Fire and Rescue 43.5 46.0 0.8 9.7 100% Southern Oregon Timber Industry Association 6.5 34.7 39.5 19.4 100% Klamath -Siskiyou Wildlands Center 33.1 34.7 5.6 26.6 100% Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative 18.5 27.4 1.6 52.4 100% Geos Institute 12.1 14.5 3.2 70.2 100% 38 Southern Oregon University Research Center Part 5: Opinions about AFR Treatments FIGURE 2: The following four photo graphs represent three common forest conditions in the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project. How much of each forest condition should be maintained across that landscape if the management goals are to balance fire safety, water quality, wildlife habitat, nat ural beauty, and recreation? (Q14 ) 42.3 16.4 7.4 27.9 Mean S.D. 12.4 22.96 9.54 16.96 23.1 22.96 9.54 16.96 9.6 22.96 9.54 16.96 16.9 22.96 9.54 16.96 (N=124) 39 Southern Oregon University Research Center FIGURE 3: Considering Condition 1, what if any forest treatments would you encourage managers to do to achieve a balance among management goals in the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project? (Q15 ) The Wordle image above represents respondents’ word usage in open -ended questions, scaled to frequency across all comments. Illustrative comments from Q 15 : Case 2608: “Remove dead and dying trees and excess fuels from forest floor.” Case 2843: “Remov e fallen trees, branches and debris off the forest floor. Possibly do some thinning of smaller bushes and trees.” 40 Southern Oregon University Research Center FIGURE 4: Considering Condition 2, what if any forest treatments would you encour age managers to do to achieve a balance among manag ement goals in the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project? (Q1 6) The Wordle image above represents respondents’ word usage in open -ended questions, scaled to frequency across all comments. Illustrative comments from Q 16 : Case 2496: “This looks to me to be a pretty healthy section. There isn't a lot of undergrowth fuel and the trees seem to be pretty healthy.” Case 2684: “LOOKS GREAT.” 41 Southern Oregon University Research Center FIGURE 5: Considering Condition 3, what if any forest treatments would you encourage managers to do to achi eve a balance among management goals in the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project? (Q17 ) The Wordle image above represents respondents’ word usage in open -ended questions, scaled to frequency across all comments. Illustrative comments from Q17 : Case 2394: “Thin, thin, thin!!!” Case 2769: “Way too many trees. Serious thinning.” 42 Southern Oregon University Research Center FIGURE 6: Considering Condition 4, what if any forest treatments would you encourage managers to do to achieve a balance among management goals in the Ashland Fo rest Resiliency Project? (Q1 8) The Wordle image above represents respondents’ word usage in open -ended questions, scaled to frequency across all comments. Illustrative comments from Q18 : Case 2818: “Thin small trees and shrubs.” Case 3099: “Thi s needs a little clean up. I have a friend that lives up past the top of the park on the right and it scares me with all the brush.” 43 Southern Oregon University Research Center Image 1 Image 2 Image 3 TABLE 13: Satisfaction with AFR Work Being Done Please indicate below eac h photo whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the work being done in the picture. Very satisfied Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Total Image 1 (Q19) 22.7 60.5 11.8 3.4 1.7 100% Image 2 (Q20) 20.2 56.3 16.0 6.7 0.8 100% Image 3 (Q21) 13.1 56.6 18.0 9.8 2.5 100% 44 Southern Oregon University Research Center FIGURE 7: Displayed below are paired pre - and post -treatment photos of the same forest locations (or stands) in the AFR project. The top photo in each pair was taken prior to treatment, and the other was taken after cutting and piling. Based on this photo comparison, please indicate on the sliding scale below whether you think the AFR project managers should have removed more or fewer trees in treatments to reduce the risk of a mega -fire in the watershed. (Q21 , Q22, & Q23) Mean (n=97) S.D. 0.21 0.78 0.38 0.91 -0.04 0.56 Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 45 Southern Oregon University Research Center FIGURE 8: In the space below, please provide any comments you have regarding the work being done in the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project, as represented in the three photos above. ( Q24; r efer to photos in Figure 7) The Wordle image above represents respondents’ word usage in open -ended questions, scaled to frequency across all comments. Illustrative comments from Q 24 : Case 2272: “Keep up the good work...when in doubt, cut it down! There is no tree shortage in this watershed. Case 3453: “I feel good about the work being done.” TABLE 20: AFR and Forest Maintenance as P riorit ies Having viewed post treatment photos, pre - post pairs, and including everything you know about A FR, please indicate whether you agree or disagree that… (Q25) Strongly Agree Agree Neither Agree/Dis Disagree Strongly Disagree Total (n=118) completing AFR should be a high priority. 46.6 48.3 3.4 1.7 0.0 100% maintaining the forests treated by AFR shou ld be a high priority. 44.9 44.9 6.8 3.4 0.0 100% Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 46 Southern Oregon University Research Center Appendix D: Paired Comparisons, April 2012 and September 2014 Only panel responses (n=124) are used to estimate opinion change. The tables and charts below report response proportions and highlight cha nge between 2012 and 2013. Most change over the eighteen month period between the two surveys is relatively small (less than 10%). Whether the changes are statistically significant is determined by using one -sample t-tests based on mean differences (i.e. , the average change in raw scores) for each question. 4 Statistical significance is reported if the p-value is below .05. A lack of statistical significance means that we can’t be sure our sample results reflect real opinion change in the population even if there is some observable change in our sample data. 4 Raw scores on most questions range between 0 and 4 ( strongly disagree to strongly agree). A change measure was created for each question ( X13 – X12=X ∆). The one sample t-test evaluates whether the mean change for a given question across all panel cases is enough different from zero (no change) that we can b e confident our sample results reflect real change in the population. Put formally, H0: m ∆ = 0 H1: m ∆ ≠ 0 where m ∆ is the mean change between 2012 and 2013 for a given question. The null hypothesis represents no opinion change, and the alternative hypoth esis represents change, either up or down. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% None 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 More than 10 CHART D1: About how many times during the last 12 months have you entered the forest in the Ashland Creek watershed, beyond Lithia Park? (P1.2 & Q1) 2013 2012 _m ∆ _t_ _Sig. -.19 -1.97 n.s. Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 47 Southern Oregon University Research Center 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Very Unhealthy Somewhat Unhealthy Don't Know Somewhat Healthy Very Healthy CHART D2: In general, how would you rate the overall condition of the forests in the Ashland Creek watershed? (P2.1 & Q3) 2013 2012 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Very Unlikely Somewhat Unlikely Don't Know Somewhat Likely Very Likely CHART D3: In your opinion, what are the chances of a large -scale, high severity fire occurring in the Ashland Creek watershed in the next five years? (P2.2 & Q4) 2013 2012 m∆ _t Sig. -. 03 -.31 n.s. m∆ t_ Sig. -.15 -1.67 n.s. Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 48 Southern Oregon University Research Center 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% an unnecessary practice a practice that sould not be considered because it creates too many impacts. I know too little to make a judgment about this topic. something that should be done only infrequently, in carefully selected areas.

a legitimate tool that resource managers should use more often. CHART D4: In my opinion, mechanical vegetation removal in the Ashland watershed is... (P2.6 & Q8_1) 2013 2012 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% an unnecessary practice a practice that should not be considered because it creates too many impacts. I know too little to make a judgment about this topic. something that should be done only infrequently, in carefully selected areas.

a legitimate tool that resource managers should use more often.

CHART D5: In my opinion, commercial thinning and density management in the Ashland watershed is... (P2.7 & Q8_2) 2013 2012 m∆ t Sig. -.07 -.82 n.s. m∆ _t_ Sig. .36 4.34 .000 Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 49 Southern Oregon University Research Center 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% an unnecessary practice a practice that should not be considered because it creates too many impacts. I know too little to make a judgment about this topic. something that should be done only infrequently, in carefully selected areas.

a legitimate tool that resource managers should use more often.

CHART D6: In my opinion, controlled burning in the Ashland watershed is... (P2.8 & Q8_3) 2013 2012 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove No Opinion Somewhat Approve Strongly Approve CHART D7: Do you approve or disapprove of AFR's goals?

(P3.4 & Q11) 2013 2012 m∆_ _t_ Sig. .14 n.s. 1.96 m∆ _ t _Sig. _ -.36 -4.90 .00 Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 50 Southern Oregon University Research Center TABLE D1 : Change in Fire Knowledge, Rank -ordered Please respond to each statement to the best of your ability by indicating whether you believe it is gene rally false, generally true, or that you are not sure. (P2.4 & Q5) % ans wer ing correctly Sig. Test 2012 2013 Change m∆ t Sig. Prior to European settlement, forests were generally more open than they are today. (TRUE) Q5.7 45.1 52.4 7.3% .07 1.15 n.s. Fires in one year are not influenced by fires in previous years.

(FALSE) Q5.6 64.5 70.2 5.7% .07 .84 n.s. Some trees, like ponderosa pine, grow better in open, sunny areas than in shaded ones. (TRUE) Q5.4 68.9 74.2 5.3% .05 .88 n.s. Fires are not importan t for maintaining wildlife habitat. (FALSE) Q5.3 77.0 77.4 .4% -.04 -.57 n.s. Fires play an important role in controlling insect and disease outbreaks in forests. (TRUE) Q5.2 89.2 89.5 .3% .00 .00 n.s. Many plants require occasional fires so that new see ds or seedlings can sprout. (TRUE) Q5.5 91.8 89.5 -2.3% -.04 -.90 n.s. Years of fire suppression has increased the risk of severe wildfire in our regions forest. (TRUE) Q5.1 82.8 78.2 -4.6% -.07 -1.22 n.s. Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 51 Southern Oregon University Research Center TABLE D2: Change in Opinions about Forest R estoration , Rank -ordered We would like to know your opinion about the broad goals of forest restoration on National Forest land in southwest Oregon. Please tell us your level of agreement with the following statements. (P4.2 & Q6 -7) % agree ment with stat ement Sign. Test 2012 2013 Change m∆ t Sig. Forest restoration should remove enough trees, large and small, in a particular stand if scientific evidence suggests that is what the landscape used to look like.

Q6.5 16.6 30.1 13.5% .25 2.56 .01 Public for est lands in southwest Oregon need large - scale restoration Q7.4 38.6 48.7 10.1% .18 2.67 .01 Restoration efforts should focus only on the Wildland Urban Interface (i.e., the forest edge near town). Q7.5 10.0 14.5 4.5% .07 .76 n.s. We should allow forests to evolve without any more human intervention. Q6.4 3.4 6.5 3.1% .03 .29 n.s. Forest restoration efforts should be used to help recover native plant and animal species that are rare and endangered in order to maintain biodiversity. Q7.1 82.8 83.8 1.0% -.08 -1.20 n.s. The main purpose of forest restoration should be to promote well -functioning ecosystems. Q6.2 98.3 95.1 -3.2% -.18 -2.93 .00 Restoration efforts should return forests to conditions more like those before European settlement. Q6.1 44.2 40. 6 -3.6% -.12 -1.25 n.s. Forest restoration should alter fire behavior by reducing the fuel that has accumulated in the forest as a result of fire suppression and past management. Q6.3 89.9 85.4 -4.5% -.07 -.89 n.s. Large trees should never be removed in forest restoration efforts. Q7.3 35.4 30.9 -4.5% -.17 -1.81 n.s. The main purpose of forest restoration should be to protect humans from fire. Q7.2 23.2 15.4 -7.8% .04 .45 n.s. Change in Public Perceptions of AFR and Forest Restoration 2013 52 Southern Oregon University Research Center TABLE D3: Change in Trust in AFR Partners , Rank -ordered Please indic ate your level of trust in the following groups to make good decisions about fuel reduction... (P3.6 & Q12) % with full trust in… Sig. Test 2012 2013 Change m∆ t Sig. 2-tail Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative 5.9 18.5 12.6% .45 5.56 .00 U.S. Forest Service 30.6 35.5 4.9% .03 .44 n.s. Southern Oregon Timber Association 4.2 6.5 2.3% .08 .85 n.s. Lomakatsi Restoration Project 47.5 46.0 -1.5% .09 1.33 n.s. Klamath -Siskiyou Wildlands Center 36.4 33.1 -3.3% .05 .63 n.s. City of Ashland 21.5 16.1 -5.4% -.03 -.49 n.s. 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