Topic - electromagnetsFormulate an organized, clearly worded, and succinct initial post that substantively covers all discussion paragraph points stated for your chosen topic. Because your initial

Ch. 5 Homework (SCM 386)

What are 3 types of business forecasting methods?

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What are 5 aspects of time series forecasts?

What is a shortcoming of using moving average to forecast?

What are two advantages of using a weighted forecast?

What is exponential smoothing and what is a shortcoming of it?

When evaluating a statistical result at 95% confidence, a P value of 3% would tell you to accept or reject the null hypothesis

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What does a seasonal index of 1.25 mean?

Mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of what and what is a weakness of it compared to MAPE?

Using Excel solve:

What are forecasted sales in month 4 using a simple moving average?

Month	Sales	Forecast

What are forecasted sales in month 4 using a weighted moving average?

60%	most recent month
30%	2 months ago
10%	3 months ago

Month	Sales

What are forecasted sales in weeks 1 through 5 using exponential smoothing?

Week	Demand	Forecast (α=0.2)
	500
	600
	400
	300
	500

What are forecasted sales in months 1 &2 using exponential smoothing with trend?

				(β=0.4)
				(α=0.2)
Month	Actual	Smoothed Forecast	Smoothed Trend	Forecast Including Trend
	10
	20

Across the months of Jan - May what are the season indexes in sales?

Month	2001	2002	2003	Avg over 3 yrs	Monthly avg	Seasonal Index
Jan	60	67	70
Feb	64	68	69
March	90	98	100
April	100	105	110
May	100	110	120

How accurate is the forecasting department at predicting sales?

Month	Sales	Forecast
	30	32
	50	39
	30	40
	20	32

		MAD =


		MAPE =
		% accuracy =

Use tracking signals to answer if the forecast in control

						Cummulative
					Absolute	Absolute
Month	Sales	Forecast	Error	RSFE	Forecast Error	Forecast Error	MAD	Tracking signal
	30	32
	50	39
	30	40
	20	32

You are the manager of a toy factory. Sales have been steadily climbing year-on-year. Does the increase in sales follow a linear trend? If so, what is the equation and % variation in sales explained by the model? (Use Excel Data Analysis Regression).

Year	Sales
2012	2000
2013	3000
2014	3100
2015	3300
2016	3500

Using the VizDataEffectively file complete graphs for Benchmark (Ch 4 Effective Data Visualization) and BulletChart1 (Ch 4 Effective Data Visualization)
Using the Pivot_table_sample file, produce a 2D bar chart showing sum of years registered by Party?