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Florida’s Changing Sea Level

by Professor George A. Maul, Ph.D.

Department of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Report:

(Annotated version)

Key West has the distinction of being the Western Hemisphere’s longest sea level record. It dates back to 1846, and although it has several multi-year gaps, it shows a long-term trend of rising sea level of about +2 mm per year. Records such as those at Key West are a measure of the ocean’s surface relative to fixed survey points on land called benchmarks, and is titled relative sea level (RSL). Changing sea level is a study of the inter-annual trends calculated by a linear least-squares fit to monthly or annual means as shown below for Key West (data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level).

RSL is a combination of several factors including the rise or fall of the sea surface due to variations in salinity and/or temperature, vertical land motion, and changes in currents, winds, barometric pressure, bottom topography, long-period tides, etc. If the land is sinking, RSL will appear to be rising even if the water level isn’t changing height due to the other factors; similarly if the land is rising RSL will fall all other things being equal.

However these very preliminary data paint a general picture for Florida and that is sea level has been rising steadily for at least 160 years, and will most likely continue to do so into the future. Whether or not the rate of rise changes in a changing climate is not known from these data.

Year	Height (mm)	Year	Height (mm)	Year	Height (mm)	Year	Height (mm)
1913	7025	1936	7076	1960	7124	1983	7159
1914	7013	1937	7094	1961	7111	1984	7162
1915	7013	1938	7053	1962	7125	1985	7165
1916	7025	1939	7063	1963	7089	1986	7198
1917	7043	1940	7033	1964	7046	1987	7174
1918	7016	1941	7046	1965	7086	1988	7156
1919	7016	1942	7092	1966	7113	1989	7131
1920	6991	1943	7088	1967	7116	1990	7150
1921	7034	1944	7086	1968	7080	1991	7219
1922	7022	1945	7061	1969	7107	1992	7202
1923	7000	1946	7107	1970	7107	1993	7195
1924	7003	1947	7136	1971	7113	1994	7196
1925	7009	1948	7162	1972	7150	1995	7209
1926	6991	1949	7096	1973	7189	1996	7140
1927	7027	1950	7091	1974	7153	1997	7183
1928	7007	1951	7082	1975	7168	1998	7178
1929	7022	1952	7102	1976	7104	1999	7231
1930	7031	1954	7091	1977	7125	2000	7211
1931	6988	1955	7095	1978	7150	2001	7172
1932	7034	1956	7092	1979	7144	2002	7206
1933	7066	1957	7116	1980	7156	2003	7182
1934	7022	1958	7102	1981	7147	2004	7188
1935	7052	1959	7107	1982	7159	2005	7215

After reading the article above, answer the following questions.

Identify the explanatory and response variables.
Construct a scatter plot of the dataset.
What relationship is revealed by the scatter plot?
Using technology, determine the linear correlation coefficient value.
What type of correlation is present based on the r value?
How strong does this correlation appear to be?
Using technology, determine the linear regression equation.
Using the linear regression equation, predict the sea level in Florida for the year 2010.
Can we use the linear regression equation to predict sea level for 2050?
Why/why not?