EXCEL AND POWERPOINT RESEARCH ASSIGNMENT : DATA ANALYSIS PLEASE REFER TO PROMPT
The National Economy National Economy Issues GDP Calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Measures production of final goods and services each quarter. C + I + G + NX Revisions (Advanced, Second, and Third) Only 50% of data is available on advanced report: uses extrapolation to complete data set. Adjusts for Inflation: Chained vs. Nominal GDP Does not measure the u nderground Economy Can we measure such? Research methodology: Surveys Compare national expenditures in excess of national income. Compare employed people exceeding the number of jobs in the economy. Compare electricity usage in excess of that required for reported production. Analyze money supply usage in excess of that required for reported production. National Economy Issues Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) GDP does not make any subjective evaluations regarding the virtue or aesthetic qualities of production. GDP measures value based on market prices only. GPI Corrects GDP for environmental degradation, inequality, crime, loss of leisure time, public infrastructure, volunteer activities, and housework. International Comparisons Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) When making international comparisons PPP adjusts currency values for the amount of goods a given unit of currency can buy. Absent PPP adjustments China is ≈ 62% the size of the U.S (IMF 2017). With PPP adjustments China is ≈ 120% the size of the U.S . (IMF 2017). Growth Rates ? For China, working backwards with growth rates, 1952 per capita income in China would have been $279, an unsustainably low figure. Per Capita Income Better gauge of standard of living than overall GDP. National Economy Issues International Statistics IMF Direction of Trade Statistics High monthly volatility in export and import data. Irreconcilable data sets Global imports do not equal global exports. Globalization Sales data often inaccurately reflects where production takes place. Assembling and sales often occur in different regions. Labor Productivity BLS Typically measured as: output/labor hours Problem: how to measure labor hours and output. At -home work may overestimate productivity. “inside the box” effect: inaccurately estimating quality changes in productivity. Services are particularly difficult to quantify. National Economy Issues Consumer Confidence Leading indicator since economy weighted largely in consumer expenditures. Conference Board Michigan Survey of Consumers Savings Rates FRED BEA Why is it important: Saving → Investment → Capital Formation → Economic Growth Personal Savings is not the only type of savings (e.g. business retained earnings and foreign savings) Some economists believe a genuine savings rate” should measure actual investment which would be closer to 20% of GDP. Including durable consumption goods would take it to over 25%
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