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Summative Assessment : Probability Assignment Provide full solutions including calculations, tables, charts, graphs or other items where necessary. 1. Give three (3) examples of how probability affects your daily life and briefly describe each example.

2. Draw a probability line with a scale in decimals fro m 0 to 1 . Place each of the following events in a reasonable location along th e probability line.

3. Which of these represents the highest probability? E xplain your thinking.

1 in 3 35% 2 / 7 0.36 4. A hospital lottery promises 1 in 7 people who purcha se a ticket will win something. As a percent to one decimal place, what is th e probability of winning?

5. If you select a card at random from a deck of 52 cards, what is the theoretical probability of selecting either a Jack or a Q ueen? Express you answer as a fraction in lowest terms.

6. A bag contains 10 red marbles, 5 blue marbles and 3 green marbles. You select a marble at random from the bag.

a) What is the theoretical probability that the marbl e is blue? Express your answer as a decimal to three decimal places.

b) What is the theoretical probability that the marbl e is not green? Express your answer as a decimal to three decimal places. My birthday is in July My birthday is today My birthday is during the summer My birthday is not in the summer 7. Because a donut shop carries only eleven kinds of donuts, when Kenneth ordered the "mixed dozen", the server had to put two donuts of one of the varieties in the box in order to make twelve.

Kenneth wasn't paying attention but hoped that the server had decided to double up on the butterscotch donuts, since that was Kenne th's favourite.

What is the theoretical probability that there are t wo butterscotch donuts in Kenneth's box? Express your answer as a percent to one d ecimal place.

8. Parvis has an 8-sided die for his board game. He and Landon roll the die to see who goes first in the game. Parvis rolls a 3. Wh at is the theoretical probability that Landon will get a higher roll than Parvis? Express your answer as a percent to one decimal place.

9. Trea has a pair of four-sided dice. a) Complete the chart below showing all of the sums possi ble with one roll of the dice.

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 b) Use the chart to determine the theoretical probabil ity of rolling a sum of 6. Express your answer as a decimal to three decim al places.

First Die Second Die 10. Darnel and Quinn roll a pair of dice to see who gets to go first in a game.

To make things interesting, Darnel tells Quinn to roll the dice and if the sum of the two dice is an ODD number, then Quinn can go first, but if the sum is an EVEN number, then Darnel gets to go first. Should Quinn agree to this arrangement? Why or why not? Provide a mathematical basis for your position using probability.

11. Suppose you are going to spin each of these spinners just once. Create a tree diagram and use the diagram to determine the th eoretical probability of spinning blue at least once. Express your answer as a fraction in lowest terms.

12. The four graphs shown below display the results of a n experiment in which marbles were selected from a bag at random. Only one of the graphs is correct. Which graph is most li kely the correct graph? Provide a justification for your choice. Graph A Graph B 200 400 600 800 1000 5 10 15 20 25 30 Trials Probability Experimental Theoretical Probability 200 400 600 800 1000 5 10 15 20 25 30 Trials Probability Experimental Theoretical Probability Graph C Graph D 13. Rhonda and her co-workers each get to take four (4) one-week holidays next this year. To make things fair, the employer hol ds a "holiday lottery" in which pieces of paper representing all the weeks of th e year are put into a drum. Each employee then gets to pick out four pieces of paper at random. Rhonda really wants to get the third week of January, since she already made plans with a friend. Rhonda gets to dr aw her four pieces of paper first. a) Describe an experiment that you could perform using playing cards that would allow you to determine the experimental probability of Rhonda getting the week in January that she wants. Incl ude any details necessary for the proper execution of the experi ment. b) Assuming you performed a sufficient number of trials, what experimental probability value do you predict you wo uld get?

c) Why does your experiment require that Rhonda goes first?

14. A confidential survey involving grade five student s was conducted in an elementary school. Of the 137 students surveyed, 20 resp onded that they had tried smoking tobacco. a) Suppose you have a brother in grade five at that school. What is the probability that he has tried smoking tobacco? Express yo ur answer as a percent to one decimal place.

b) According to a 2002 Statistics Canada survey, 12% of m ale children 11 years of age said that they had tried smoking tobacco. I n Ontario, there were approximately 80 000 11 year-old males in 2002. How many of them would you predict had tried smoking tobacco? 200 400 600 800 1000 5 10 15 20 25 30 Trials Probability Experimental Theoretical Probability 200 400 600 800 1000 5 10 15 20 25 30 Trials Probability Experimental Theoretical Probability 15. The majority of lightning-related deaths in Canada occur when people are outdoors. They also tend to occur during the summer mon ths. Between 1986 and 2005, approximately 26% of lightni ng-related deaths occurred on a Saturday. a) If 53 lightning-related deaths occurred during this period, how many deaths occurred on a Saturday?

b) What is the theoretical probability of a lightning-related death occurring on a Saturday?

c) Attempt to explain why the experimental probabili ty of 26% differs from the theoretical probability result 17. Draw a spinner with the colours red, green and blu e so that the probability of spinning red is twice as great as the probability of spinning blue and the probability of spinning blue is the same as the probab ility of spinning green.

18. The probability of getting heads on a coin is 1/2 or 50%. The probability of selecting a Jack from a deck of cards is 1/13 or approximatel y 8%. Suppose you decide to test the above probabilities by co nducting a coin- flipping experiment and a card-selection experiment. The card-selection experiment would likely require many more trials than the coin-flipping experiment in order for the experimental probabilit y to get close to the theoretical probability. Explain why this is true.