Population growth is critical to environmental change. The IPAT equation (from both Week 1 and 2 readings) is an equation that describes four variables that interact to produce environmental change: I

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How much Population Growth is Sustainable?

Our learning resources this week introduce us to human population growth. We learned about factors that affect population growth and reviewed some projections for future population growth. Now, let us consider some future population growth scenarios and see if it is sustainable given our consumption of resources and large ecological footprints.

Visit the human population calculator available here:
http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias/population.php

Consider some different scenario based on different population growth rates, as discussed in our readings this week, and interpret the results.

For example, run the calculator using the global peak population growth rate of 2.1% in 1968, the current global population growth rate of just over 1%, and/or the UN’s projected global population growth rate of 0.1% by the end of the century (Roser, Ritchie & Ortiz-Ospina, 2019).

Additionally, take a look at the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Clock to get an idea of the current size and growth of our population in the United States and worldwide: https://www.census.gov/popclock/

Think about the following:

  • How much will the population grow by 2050 for each of these growth rates? Is this growth sustainable?

  • What role does our standard of living play? Will we need to lower our standard of living in highly developed countries? What about the goal to reduce poverty and improve the standard of living in developing countries?

  • What is the role of agricultural productivity? We need to ensure that we are able to feed the growing human population. Can we increase our agricultural yields as needed or will environmental degradation actually reduce agricultural productivity?