quantitative models for decision makers
Quantitative Models for Dec ision Makers 1 The work to determine your answers should be your own and computations, drawings, tables and formulas should be verified to your satisfaction. Please submit your answers in word or pdf. Do not provide me with spreadsheets. Handwritten responses are fine as long as everything is clearly labeled. Give yourself enough time to review your answers. 1.
5 points total : Chapter 1 Anderson Que stion 15 a)(2pts) Anderson Q15a Change The Boxes to Cost $250,000 each b)(3pts) Anderson Q15b Change The Boxes to Cost $250,000 each 2)1 5 points total : Chapter 2 Anderson Question 33 (use Solver an d graphing – manual or lp packages…) a)(5pts) Anderson Q33a (Change the objective function to Min A+2.5B) b)(5pts) Anderson Q33b (Change the objective function to Min A+2.5B) c)(5pts) Anderson Q33c (Change the objective function to Max 5A+2.5B) 3)12 points total: Chapter 3 Anderson Q9 a)(3pts) Anderson Q9a (Change the objective function to Max 1W+1.50M) b)(3pts) Anderson Q9b (Change the objective function to Max 1W+1.50M) c)(3pts) Anderson Q9c (Change the objective function to Max 1W+1.50M) d)(3pts) Anderson Q9d (Change the objective function to Max 1W+1.50M) 4)20 points total: Chapter 6 Anderson Q31 a.(10pts) Anderson Q31: Determine the max number of messages from 1 to 7 b. (10pts) Anderson Q31: Change the arc from 6 to 7 to a value of 4 and determine the max number of messages from 1 to 7 5) 8 points total: Chapter 9 Anderson Q7 a)(2pts) Anderson Q7a Change activity A time to 4 b)(2pts) Anderson Q7b Change activity A time to 4 c)(2pts) Anderson Q7c Change activity A time to 4 d)(2pts) Anderson Q7d Change activity A time to 4 Quantitative Models for Dec ision Makers 2 6) 8 points total: Chapter 9 Anderson Q15 a)(2pts) Anderson Q15a b)(2pts) Anderson Q15b c)(2pts) Anderson Q15 c d)(2pts) Anderson Q16d 7)8 points total: Chapter 11 Anderson Q7 a)(2pts) Anderson Q7a Change the arrival rate to 3 and the service rate to 6 b)(2pts) Anderson Q7b Change the arrival rate to 3 and the service rate to 6 c)(2pts) Anderson Q7c Change the arrival rate to 3 and the service rate to 6 d)(2pts) Anderson Q7d Change the arrival rate to 3 and the service rate to 6 8)6 points total: Chapter 11 Anderson Q17 a)(1.2pts) Anderson Q17a Change the arrival rate to 6 and the service rate to 11 b)(1.2pts) Anderson Q17b Change the arrival rate to 6 and the service rate to 11 c)(1.2pts) Anderson Q17c Change the arrival rate to 6 and the service rate to 11 d)(1.2pts) Anderson Q17c Change the arrival rate to 6 and the service rate to 11 e) (1.2pts) Anderson Q17c Change the arrival rate to 6 and the service rate to 11 9)(5pts ): From Chapter 12: Anderson Q3 10) (5pts ): From Chapter 12: Anderson Q7 11) (24pts) From Chapter 12: The Spreadsheet I provided provides y ou with 500 random draws to be used for 500 simulation. With these random draws implement the model as specified in Section 12.1 using these random draws for each of the Direct Labor Costs, Parts Costs, and First Year Dem and and provide me with the values required in the table below . 12)14 points total: Chapter 13 Question – read the question and d irections carefu lly Quantitative Models for Dec ision Makers 3 Answer all of the following quest ions and provide me with the answers, drawings, tables. Keep explanations short 1‐2 sentences max (if necessary at all): a.(1pt) What is the decision to be made? b.(1pt) What is the chance event? c.(1pt) What is the consequence?
d.(1pt) What are the alternative dec isions? e.(2pts) What are the possible outcomes?
f.(2pts) Construct and provide me with a decision tree g.(2pts) Using the expected value approach to recommend which alt ernative Seneca Hill Winery should follow in order to maximize expected annual profit. Specifically, what is the maximum expected annual profit?
h. (2pts) Suppose management is concerned about the probability as sessments w hen demand for Chardonnay wine is strong. Some believe it is likely for Riesling demand to also be strong in this case. Suppose the probability of strong demand for Chardonnay and Quantitative Models for Dec ision Makers 4 weak demand for Riesling is 0.05 and that the probability of strong demand for Chardonnay and strong demand for Riesling is 0.40. How does th is change the recommended decision? Assume that the probabilities when Chard onnay demand is weak are still 0.05 and 0.50. Specifically what is the maximum expected profit reflecting the statements above? i. (2pts) Other members of the mana gement team expect the Chardonnay market to become saturated at some point in the future, causing a fall in prices. Suppose that the annual profit projections fall to $50,000 when demand for Chard onnay is strong and Chardonnay grapes only are planted. Using the original probabi lity assessments, deter mine how this change would affect the optimal decision.
