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(1) Provide forecasts for every month of 2016 using the following methods (a)12-month moving average (b) simple time trend (c) time trend with dummy
(1) Provide forecasts for every month of 2016 using the following methods
(a)12-month moving average
(b) simple time trend
(c) time trend with dummy variables for months
(2) Calculate the Mean Square Error (i.e. the average of the sum of squared forecast errors) for each forecasting method for the period January through June 2017.
(3) Rank the forecasting methods in order of lowest to highest MSE.
Motor Vehicle Unit Retail Sales
Table 1- Domestic Autos
month year domestic autos sold (in thousands) time january february march april may june july august september october november december
January 2010 240.0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2010 272.7 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2010 375.2 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2010 343.5 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2010 389.7 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2010 335.3 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2010 336.8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2010 319.1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2010 305.6 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2010 279.7 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2010 256.3 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December 2010 337.6 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
January 2011 258.6 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2011 338.6 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2011 445.3 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2011 405.4 16 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2011 362.2 17 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2011 349.0 18 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2011 329.5 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2011 340.5 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2011 327.5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2011 321.0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2011 304.9 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December 2011 363.5 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
January 2012 323.4 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2012 430.2 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2012 528.1 27 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2012 431.8 28 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2012 491.1 29 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2012 459.9 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2012 393.3 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2012 452.8 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2012 412.0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2012 369.8 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2012 382.7 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December 2012 444.8 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
January 2013 383.9 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2013 446.4 38 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2013 544.5 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2013 466.7 40 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2013 519.4 41 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2013 499.7 42 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2013 446.9 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2013 516.8 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2013 383.1 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2013 398.0 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2013 406.6 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December 2013 421.2 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
January 2014 344.2 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2014 409.9 50 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2014 534.3 51 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2014 470.2 52 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2014 564.6 53 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2014 499.8 54 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2014 480.0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2014 556.9 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2014 414.5 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2014 430.9 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2014 428.8 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December 2014 475.8 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
January 2015 386.0 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2015 419.5 62 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2015 525.0 63 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2015 477.3 64 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2015 563.2 65 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2015 491.4 66 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2015 481.7 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2015 496.8 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2015 446.6 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2015 447.7 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2015 387.8 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December 2015 472.1 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
January 2016 362.9 73 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
February 2016 430.1 74 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
March 2016 504.2 75 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
April 2016 448.5 76 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 2016 469.8 77 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
June 2016 454.0 78 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
July 2016 436.6 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
August 2016 434.1 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
September 2016 420.8 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
October 2016 380.7 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
November 2016 379.1 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
December2016448.6840000000000
