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QUESTION

An water well is to be drilled in the desert where the soil is either rock, clay or sand. The probability of rock P(R) = 0.53. The clay probability is P(C) = 0.21. The sand probability is P(S) = 0.26.

An water well is to be drilled in the desert where the soil is either rock, clay or sand. The probability of rock P(R) = 0.53. The clay probability is P(C) = 0.21. The sand probability is P(S) = 0.26. It if it rock, a geological test gives a positive result with 35% accuracy. If it is clay, this test gives a positive result with 48% accuracy. The test gives a 75% accuracy for sand. Given the test is positive, what is the probability that soil is rock, P(rock | positive)?

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