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An economist uses both quantitative and qualitative data to justify their decisions. Modern economics, neoclassical economics in particular, often relies on probability. Review this article for more information on the connection between probability and economics. Do you think that probability should always be used when making economic decisions or forecasting? Or do you think there are some instances where economic changes are based on sheer luck? Be sure to use examples to justify your conclusions with examples.

note this is a discussion question so 1-2 pages is okay with two references.

OTHER QUESTIONS (i just need the answers )

1)A biometric security device using fingerprints erroneously refuses to admit 1 in 1,800 authorized persons from a facility containing classified information. The device will erroneously admit 1 in 1,015,000 unauthorized persons. Assume that 90 percent of those who seek access are authorized. If the alarm goes off and a person is refused admission, what is the probability that the person was really authorized? (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)

2)Half of a set of the parts are manufactured by machine A and half by machine B. Ten percent of all the parts are defective. Six percent of the parts manufactured on machine A are defective.Find the probability that a part was manufactured on machine A, given that the part is defective. (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)

3)A poker hand (5 cards) is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of each event, showing your reasoning carefully.

(a) The first four cards are the four aces. (Round your answer to 7 decimal places.)

       (b) Any four cards are the four aces. (Round your answer to 7 decimal places.)

4)The probability that a 56-year-old white male will live another year is .99203.

What premium would an insurance company charge to break even on a one-year $1 million term life insurance policy?

break even =

5)A lottery ticket has a grand prize of $45.2 million. The probability of winning the grand prize is .000000044.

    Determine the expected value of the lottery ticket. (Round your answer to 3 decimal places.)

     Expected value$   =

6)Pepsi and Mountain Dew products sponsored a contest giving away a Lamborghini sports car worth $226,000. The probability of winning from a single bottle purchase was .00000600.

Find the expected value. (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)

 Expected value$   =

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