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Exercise 9.1 The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years:
Exercise 9.1The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale HumanService Agency for past four fiscal years:20X1 $5,250,00020X2 $5,500,00020X3 $6,000,00020X4 $6,750,000Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weightedmoving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For movingaverages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscalyears. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, avalue of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponentialsmoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $6,300,000.You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time seriesregression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why?
