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Instructions: Please respond to THE FOLLOWING other students. Responses should be a minimum of 150 words FOR EACH ONE and include direct questions.FOR STUDENT #1 NO DIRECT QUESTION IS NEEDED.Student#1
Instructions: Please respond to THE FOLLOWING other students. Responses should be a minimum of 150 words FOR EACH ONE and include direct questions.
FOR STUDENT #1 NO DIRECT QUESTION IS NEEDED.
Student#1
(YOU)
Nice run down. You state, "The state and non-state actors have demonstrated the use of chemical weapons in both Syria and Iraq." Does this pose a threat to the US or is this just a regional issue?
Doc Locke
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Student#2
John Conway
Review DNI WTA's for 2016 and 2017 (see attached). Compare and contrast all the threat[s] as the DNI saw them last year and what he sees this year?
The comparison and contrast used was that between the 2
017 and 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment.
Cyber Security Threats
When looking at many of the threats outlined in each assessment, it is apparent that the top concern in each is the threat to the cyber-security sector. On a global scale, they each show that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are the top threats in this category. In the 2018 WTA, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, however, are testing more aggressive cyber-attacks that pose growing threats to the United States and US partners (DNI, 2018). In the 2017 WTA, the assessment was made that each country, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, were on top pf their game and are expanding their cyber threat research to adapt to any changed that he United States may be adding to their national security programs.
The contrast in this assessment, from the 2017 WTA, for cyber related threats is that China has lowered the amount of cyber intrusions from the previous cyber security agreements the U.S. and China agreed on in a 2015 bi-lateral agreement. Private-sector security experts continue to identify ongoing cyber activity from China, although at volumes significantly lower than before the bilateral Chinese-US cyber commitments of September 2015 (DNI, 2017). As for Russia and Iran, both countries are continually developing cyber units that are solely dedicated to infiltrating the American cyber security realm and gathering as much intelligence as they can before their intrusions are detected.
Weapons of Mass Destruction
In the 2017 WTA, the continued development of WMDs by state and non-state actors was at the forefront the proliferation agreements signed by Russia and the use of chemical weapons in Syria against armed rebels. Russia has developed a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) that the United States has declared is in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. We assess the Syrian regime used the nerve agent sarin in an attack against the opposition in Khan Shaykhun on 4 April 2017 and non-state actors in the region are also using chemicals as a means of warfare (DNI, 2017). Through the expansion of ISIS throughout Iraq and Syria, major military strongholds were overtaken by ISIS and some areas included stockpiles of chemical weapons, which has given the ISIS leadership the ability to use those weapons against their regional enemies.
North Korea defied world criticism in 2017 and into 2018 with the launching of several missiles that may have contained WMDs. World economic sanctions were placed against North Korea with threats form allied nations on the repercussions of continues development of WMD capable missiles. Thus, leading to the efforts on the part of North Korea to meet with the United States in a joint summit to discuss de-nuclearization by North Korea. The main ideology that came out of the meeting is to develop better relations with North Korea and the neighboring countries who were threatened by the nuclear developments of North Korea. The future of the region was not outlined in neither the 2016, 2017 nor the 2018 WTA. Which goes to show that after stern criticism, even a country as rogue as North Korea can come out and endure a long future without the worries of war. After the meeting in June of 2018, Kim Jun Un wrote a message to President Trump in regards to the meeting and the future between the two countries. “Wishing that the invariable trust and confidence in Your Excellency Mr. President will be further strengthened in the future process of taking practical actions, I extend my conviction that the epochal progress in promoting the DPRK-U.S. relations will bring our next meeting forward” (Lam, 2018).
DNI. (2017, May 11). WORLDWIDE THREAT ASSESSMENT. Retrieved from dni.gov: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/SSCI%20Unclassified%20SFR%20-%20Final.pdf
DNI. (2018, February 13). WORLDWIDE THREAT ASSESSMENT. Retrieved from dni.gov: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2018-ATA---Unclassified-SSCI.pdf
Lam, K. (2018, July 12). Kim Jong Un sends Trump a 'very nice' letter, teases possible 2nd meeting. Retrieved from foxnews.com: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/12/kim-jong-un-sends-trump-very-nice-letter-teases-possible-2nd-meeting.html
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Student#3
AARON BECKER
This week’s assignment was particularly interesting. I immensely enjoyed the in-depth look in comparison. As I was skimming through both documents, I noticed an important change right from the start. In 2017, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) chooses to use one section for addressing the growing concern of emerging and disruptive technologies. This is a significant thing to talk about. In the 2016 Worldwide Threat Assessment (WTA), one section is devoted to both cyber and technology threats. The 2017 WTA breaks off the topic of technology and creates an entire category out of it (DNI, 2017).
Secondly, it appears that The Balkans, as of 2017, are no longer specified as a threat (DNI, 2017). In the 2017 publication, The Balkans are only mentioned once. Their mentioning is in regards to their improvement on securing the borders and limiting migration to Europe. In 2016, attention was given to the poor financial state and ineffective government of The Balkans (DNI). 2017 did not report it as relevant.
Another threat taken off the books is the country of Libya (DNI, 2016 & 2017). 2017 only makes mention of Libya as having fell in 2011. Not much else in the realm of threat is associated with Libya. However, in just 2016, Libya was on the radar. They had a fallen economy, were facing civil war, and their largest source of revenue, the oil exports, were at risk of attack by terrorists (DNI, 2016).
Interestingly enough, Egypt and Lebanon were also not specifically addressed (DNI, 2017). In the 2017 report, Lebanon was only listed as a country from which we hosted refugees. 2016: political factors as well as infrastructure are mentioned as critical components of Libya compared to worldwide threats. In 2016, there was also concern that Lebanon was a threat based on the strong base of extremists in Syria and refugees moving into Lebanon. This is one thing that seems to be watered down in the 2017 report (DNI).
There were several areas where threats were readdressed and changed from 2016 to 2017. In 2016, the areas of Central Africa were being addressed. In 2017, not so much. Instead, the DNI identified Shel, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo as areas to watch. All three of these areas are a concern due to civil unrest within the country, public protests, and the struggle of ruling parties to mitigate an impending rebellion.
References
Director of National Intelligence (2016). Worldwide Threat Assessment.
Director of National Intelligence (2017). Worldwide Threat Assessment.
