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Let X be the number of Chargers (NFL team in Los Angeles) fans observed in a random sample of n = 30 graduate students at Penn State's University...
- Let X be the number of Chargers (NFL team in Los Angeles) fans observed in a random sample of n = 30 graduate students at Penn State's University Park campus. Assume that X ∼ Bin(30; π). The true proportion π is unknown, but it is likely to be small (especially in comparison to the potential number of Pittsburgh Steelers fans).
- (a) Assume for now that π = 0.04. Find the probability that X = 0.
- (b) The classic (Wald) approximate 95% confidence interval for π is
- √
- πˆ(1 − πˆ) n
- where πˆ = X/n. When does this interval become degenerate (i.e., when the lower and upper bounds are the same)? If the true π were actually 0.04, could this interval actually cover the true parameter 95% of the time? Why or why not? Hint: based on part (a), how often would the interval become degenerate at zero?
- (c) Suppose that we observe two Chargers fans in the sample. Plot the log-likelihood func- tion for π over a range of values from 0.01 to 0.20. Find the ML estimate, and calculate the approximate 95% confidence interval for π based on the formula above.
- (d) Now find an approximate 95% confidence interval based on the likelihood ratio method. That is, find the range of null values that the likelihood ratio test would fail to reject.
- (e) In their 1998 paper, Agresti and Coull propose using the Wald interval but with two pseudo successes and two pseudo failures first added to the sample. Compute the 95% interval based on this modification, and compare it with the other intervals calculated above.