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QUESTION

# quot;1. The operator of a flight school desires to predict the number of students for the coming year so that he can contract for fuel, instructors,...

"1. The operator of a flight school desires to predict the number of students for the coming year so that he can contract for fuel, instructors, A/C, etc. The school has been in operation for one year. The enrollment data for that year, starting in January is presented below. a. From among a three month moving average, four month moving average, trend, and seasonally adjusted trend, chose a method that appears to best predict the monthly enrollments for the next year, assuming that flight school may grow unbounded. b. Explain and justify the method used for the forecast. 40 42 48 52 56 60 61 61 56 56 55 54 2. THE FOLLOWING DATA CONCERNS FUEL SALES BY A DISTRIBUTOR AND IS GIVEN IN THOUSANDS OF GALLONS. CASE I CASE II CASE III JAN 15 12 12 FEB 17.5 15.5 15.5 MAR 20 19 19 APR 22.5 23.5 23.5 MAY 25 27 27 JUN 27.5 30.5 30.5 JUL 30 33 33 AUG 32.5 34.5 34.5 SEP 35 36 36 OCT 37.5 36.5 36.5 NOV 40 38 38 DEC 42.5 39.5 39.5 JAN 45 42 43.5 FEB 47.5 45.5 46.5 MAR 50 49 49.5 APR 52.5 53.5 53 MAY 55 57 56 JUN 57.5 60.5 59 JUL 60 63 61.5 AUG 62.5 64.5 63.5 SEP 65 66 65.5 OCT 67.5 66.5 67 NOV 70 68 69 DEC 72.5 69.5 71 a. For each of the cases predict the fuel sales for the next twelve-month period. Chose the prediction method that you think will give you the best prediction. Briefly describe the prediction method used and your rationale for selecting that method.