QUESTION

# The number of fishing rods selling each day are given below. Perform analyses of the time series to determine which model should be used for forecasting. (a) 3 day moving average analysis(b) 4 day mov

The number of fishing rods selling each day are given below. Perform analyses of the time series to determine which model should be used for forecasting.

(a) 3 day moving average analysis

(b) 4 day moving average analysis

(c) 3 day weighted moving average analysis with weights w1=0.2, w2=0.3 and w3=0.5 with w1 on the oldest data

(d) exponential smoothing analysis with a = 0.3.

(e) Which model provides a better fit of the data? (3 marks) (f) Forecast day 13 sales of fishing rods using the model chosen in part(e).

day   rod sold

1        60

2        70

3       110

4        80

5        70

6        85

7       115

8       105

9        65

10      75

11       95

12       85

2.Perform a Trend and Seasonal analysis with the following data. Include the trend formula and the multiplicative indices for the seasons. Using the model forecast sales for the next year (all 4 seasons of year 4).

year season sales

1      sp           140

1      su            50

1       w           130

1       f             520

2      sp          200

2       su         110

2        w           190

2        f             550

3       sp           260

3        su          220

3         w          210

3          f           570

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