Trash pickup at my house is normally on Tuesdays.

Trash pickup at my house is normally on Tuesdays. When I wake up on a random Tuesday morning, there is a 85% chance that today is pickup day, and a 15% chance that the schedule has changed this week for some reason that I have forgotten.

If today is trash pickup day, there is a 95% chance that my neighbor will remember and put her trash out; if today is not pickup day, there is a 15% chance that my neighbor will forget and put her trash out anyhow.

One Tuesday morning I look out of the window and see that my neighbor has left for work without putting her trash out. What are the chances that today is, in fact, trash pickup day?