You are in charge of planning and coordinating next spring's sales management training program for your company. You have identified the following...

You are in charge of planning and coordinating next spring's sales management training program for your company. You have identified the following activity information for this project.

Task

Task Label

Estimated Duration (Weeks)

Immediate Predecessor

Plan topic

A

2

None

Obtain speakers

B

2.5

A

List meeting locations

C

2

None

Select location

D

2

C

Finalize speaker travel plans

E

1

B,D

Make final check with speakers

F

2

E

Prepare and mail brochure

G

3.5

B,D

Take reservations

H

4

G

Handle last minute details

I

2

F,H

Each of the items below is worth 5 pts.

a.    

Draw the network diagram using the activity-on-node (AON) convention.  Use the Task Label to identify each node.  Include the task duration within the node. For example, 

b.    List all the paths from the start node to the end node (last activity). Identify the length (duration) of each path, and identify the critical path and critical activities. Which activities can you afford to procrastinate on?

c.     If the management training will be on June 17, 2018, given the plan above, when (what date) is the latest time you can start the planning process? 

d.     Suppose that the duration times of some of the activities listed above are actually variable (e.g. not deterministic). After some thought and research, you revised the task times as follows:

Task

Task Label

Estimated Duration (Weeks)

Immediate Predecessor

Optimistic Time

Most Likely Time

Pessimistic Time

Plan topic

A

1.5

2

2.5

None

Obtain speakers

B

2

2.5

6.0

A

List meeting locations

C

1

2

3.0

None

Select location

D

1.5

2

2.5

C

Finalize speaker travel plans

E

0.5

1

1.5

B,D

Make final check with speakers

F

1.0

2

3.0

E

Prepare and mail brochure

G

3.0

3.5

7.0

B,D

Take reservations

H

3.0

4

5.0

G

Handle last minute details

I

1.5

2

2.5

F,H

Using the revised time estimates, create a table containing the following information: 

(1) List of paths and their activities; 

(2) the average duration time of each path; 

(3) the variance of the duration time of each path; and 

(4) the standard deviation of the duration time of each path.

e.     You plan to start the planning process on Mar 5, 2019 because you will be on a Hawaiian excursion prior to March 5.  What is the likelihood that the planning will be completed by June 17, 2019 given the revised durations times listed in (d)? Show evidence of solution.

If you want to be 99 percent certain that the project will be completed on time (by June 17, 2019), when is the latest date you need to start the planning process? Show evidence supporting your answer.