Step-by-Step Guide: “Tariffs, Trade, and Trouble” STEP 1: Open and Explore the Dataset 1. Open the Excel file titled Tariff -Recession Dataset.xlsx. 2. Review the columns: o Real GDP Growth (%) o Un

Step-by-Step Guide: “Tariffs, Trade, and Trouble”

STEP 1: Open and Explore the Dataset

1. Open the Excel file titled Tariff -Recession Dataset.xlsx.

2. Review the columns:

o Real GDP Growth (%)

o Unemployment Rate (%)

o Consumer Price Index (CPI)

o Exports / Imports / Net Exports

o Manufacturing Employment

o Budget Deficit

o Consumer Confidence Index

3. Identify the timeline: Q1 2014 – Q4 2024 (44 quarters).

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STEP 2: Build Charts in Excel

Create the following line graphs (Insert → Chart → Line or Scatter with lines):

1. Real GDP Growth over Time

· X-axis: Quarter

· Y-axis: Real GDP Growth (%)

2. Net Exports over Time

· X-axis: Quarter

· Y-axis: Net Exports (Exports – Imports)

3. Unemployment Rate over Time

· X-axis: Quarter

· Y-axis: Unemployment Rate (%)

4. Consumer Confidence Index over Time

· X-axis: Quarter

· Y-axis: Confidence Index

Make sure to:

· Label each chart clearly

· Add a descriptive chart title

· Format axes and use gridlines for clarity

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STEP 3: Identify Pre-Tariff vs. Post-Tariff Periods

Pre-Tariff Period: Q1 2014 – Q4 2024 Simulated Post-Tariff Period: Q1 2026 – Q4 2026 (students should estimate values or use projections)

Note: In reality, we don’t have actual post-tariff data. You must simulate what could happen based on economic theory and observed pre-tariff trends.

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STEP 4: Perform Key Calculations in Excel

Use formulas or summary rows to:

1. Calculate average GDP growth rate:

o Pre-tariff (Q1 2014–Q4 2024)

o Simulated post-tariff (your estimates)

2. Calculate change in manufacturing employment:

o Compare beginning vs. end of timeline

3. Compare net exports and consumer confidence index:

o Look for significant upward/downward shifts

Use =AVERAGE(range), =MAX(), =MIN(), or create your own columns to calculate changes over time.

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STEP 5: Analyze Trends and Write Your Findings

In a short written analysis (1 page or less):

· Identify what changed after the tariffs (real or simulated)

· Discuss if the economy is weakening (signs: lower GDP, higher unemployment, lower confidence, shrinking net exports)

· Make an evidence-based conclusion:

o Is the economy heading toward recession?

o What indicators support your reasoning?

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STEP 6: Make a Recommendation

Based on your findings, recommend one of the following:

· Continue the tariff policy

· Modify the tariff policy

· Repeal the tariff policy

Justify your recommendation with data + economic reasoning (e.g., if GDP is falling and unemployment rising, it may point to recession).

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STEP 7: Create Final Deliverables

You must submit:

1. Excel File with:

o All graphs

o Calculations

o Clearly labeled sheet(s)

2. Executive Summary:

o One-page report with:

§ Graph screenshots

§ Summary of findings

§ Policy recommendation

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Bonus Tips:

· Use color-coding in Excel to highlight key changes

· Double-check that your graphs are easy to interpret

· Practice summarizing your findings in simple, clear language