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QUESTION

Terrorism forecasting

Describe how you would incorporate the use of collections indicators (ideally from the week 6 TIIE) in a forecasting methodology applied to the scenario. 

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    ******** ******** ** ****** of *********** terrorism

    *******

    name:

    *********

    name: Affiliation/School:

    Date:

    ***

    forecasting

    *********** **********

    *******

    indicators

    **

    *********

    ***

    *******

    proven

    analytic

    **********

    **

    *

    **********

    process

    ****

    *********

    against ****** warning ******** **** ******* **** identified ********** history *** ******** version of this ******** ******** * ************ *********** ** *** ** ******** ********* ** evaluation ** *** forecasting ****** ******* *** ****** ******* ******** **** **** ****** warning ******** ** *** **** **** **** ******** ********** *************** *** implementations This methodology that ***** up *** ***** ********* ********** ** ***** on abstract ********** *** it *** be ******* by intelligence ***** *** *** just ********* ** ****** ******** *** **** ** *********** ************* Correcting *************** ********* lessons **** arisen from *** study ** ************ ******* ******** but **** common ************** have

    prevented

    ***

    ************ ********* ****

    recognizing

    and

    ************* ***** ******* Analysis ****** **** ********** ** *** **** effective way ** ******* ******* ******* warning failures *** ****** *** to ********** ************ ********** *** *** **** frequently *** to **** analysis and are **** ***** *** ** ******** ****** ******** ************ ****** ****** ******** ****** ******* ****** ************ ******* because ********** product ** weak ******** 2000) Hiring smart ****** **** *** *********** **** ** **** analysis

    Studies

    **** **** ********** groups ** ***** well-motivated ****** ***** ** the ***** solution They ************ **** ******* **** **** stupid *** ******* **** ******** * poor process in ******** at ***** ********** ** How ** forecast ********** ************ explanation ** the ******** ************ This *********** ****** ** ***** ** indicators *** explanation ** this *********** begins

    at

    *** ****** ***** ** ********** *** then builds up ** ***

    ***

    picture of ********* ****** * region *** forecasting assessments of **** *********** are maintained ** * website ******* *** ******* ******* list **** ****** list **** and ********* **** **** Each potential-terrorist ****** is evaluated ** a ******* hypothesis ****** ***** ** the ****** ** various indicators ** terrorism *** various ***** *** phases of ******* ******** *** ********* below A) Phase I: ******* ******** *** ******** ** *** ************ problem ****** indicators) *** ***** task ** *********** or validating ********** ******** ***** *** the ********

    ******

    of **** forecasting system ****** that ***** **** ** ****** *** ***** ****

    would

    ****** happen **** ** ********* ****** weapons movement ********* ******** ****** surveillance and ***** ** ******** *** ******** of ********* ********** ******* * **** ** ********** ****** ***** be considered ***** *** ************* To ******** alterations ** indicators ***** has ** ** review of *** ************ reports ***** ***** *** miscellaneous indicators ** ********* ** *** ***** ** *********** ********* ******** **** **** *********** *** ****** **** ** ** ********** indicators ******** ***** some ********** *** **** significant than ****** *** ******** ******* movement ** *** target **** **** take ***** ******

    *

    ******

    attack

    whereas increase in ********* ********** ** *** * ************ Therefore ******* ******** ***** ***** * ****** priority **** increased *********** The ***** **** is ** ******* ** ******** *** ******** **** ** **** indicator ******** The type of *********** required ** assess *** status of an indicator ****** ** ******* *******

    ***

    ******** Thus ** ** ***** ** ** ****** ***** *** leading **************** experts ******** * **** ** *** ********* ** each ********* **** *** ******* should ********** ********* ** *** ******** sets at least ********* ** ***** II: *********** *********** ****** ****** database) *** **** here ** ***** ** the intelligence ********* master ******** ******** *** *** intelligence ******* **** ************ ********** ********** ** daily ***** The

    daily

    ******* ****** **** the *********** **** *** fifteen

    ******

    ************* ** *** ************ ********* *** ***** ** ********** ************* **** *** have ***************** *********** ******* *** ***** *** intelligence ******* to an intelligence ********* master ********* ** ***** **** Sort *********** ****** ********** ********** ** this ***** experts ***** *** ********* ******* *** intelligence ******* **** terrorism *********** ******** ***** *********** indicators *** ********* targets ********* ********* ****** and *****

    data

    ******* elements ****** ** ***** ***** *** reporting

    *********

    ***** ******* *** intelligence community’s incoming raw ************ reports and ****** *** ** them into * ********* *********** ******** ********* to *** ********** *** ********* ********* ****** *** other ******************** data ******* ********* Terrorism forecasting ******** ******* **************** ********** matrices with *** intelligence ******* ***** ** ********** on daily ***** ******** ******** ************* ******* ************* potential-target ********** ****** ******** *** ******** hyperlinks ** *** reports ***** *** appropriate ************

    ******

    *** ********** ********* **** ********* *********** ******** ***** *** ************ ******* into appropriate ********* *** ********* ******* *** ******** logs ****** the ********** ******** ***** ****** ** *** ************ ************** *********** ******** every *** ** important in ********* *********** ***

    ********

    ******** ******** source *********** and information ********************* ********* ** ***** ** utility matrix ***** to ********* * ************** *********** validity ** Phase IV: Draw *********** ****** ********* *** ********* technique) ******* assesses ********* ******* ****** daily ******* ******** ******* that ******* *** ********* ******** *** indicator ******* ********* an indicator ******* level ******* ************** significant(-70%) minor(-30%) ************ ***

    unknown(or

    -50%) *** ********* activity ***** is ********** ** ******* group

    **

    ******* ***** ****** ***** ** utility matrix ***** (for ************ indicators) ** the indicator key ********* ******* *** evidence logs **** *** qualitative *********** ******* ******** *** *********** *** monitoring *** ********* *** *** ******* ****** that *** computer application ************* ******** and ******* ** *** ********* ***** ** **** *** **** to ****** terrorist ********* ******* ***** on ***** ***** After the ******* **** ********** ********* ******* level on ******* ********** ** ********* ********** ********* capability and ****** ************* ***** *** *** ***** components ** ****

    ***

    ******** can ********* * ******* level *** **** of ***** three ********** ** assess the terrorist ********** ******* ***** on ***** ***** the computer determines the terrorist capability ******* ****** ******* **** is to ****** target **** ******* ***** ******* When ******** have a ******* ***** for *** ***** components ** **** (terrorist ********** ********* ************ *** ****** vulnerability) *** ******** *** ********* a risk ******* ***** *** * ***** target

    Also

    ***** ** *** **** ** ****** ******* risk ******* ***** ** daily ***** through ******** ******* **** ********** the ******* **** ******* ***** ** ****** *** highest ****** **** warning ***** in *** ******** ***** ** also *** need ** update/study ***** ******** ** ********* warning ****** done ******* The computer automatically ******** *** ********* ******* ***** as ** ***** *** the ******** ** each month *** plots ** a graph Senior warning ******** ***** analytical

    ********

    discussing warning ******** and successes *** how the *********** will ** adjusted ** ********** E) ***** ** ***** collectors and intelligence **** to refine/update *********** ****** ********** **** describe **** ** **** ***** *** need ** ***** ** **** ***** ***** *** *** following ****** *** **** to ************ ********* ******* narrative **** ** **** ***** ***

    ****

    ** **** ** ***** ***** ********** *** ********* ** explain the ******* ****** **** *********** ******* ***** and *** ******** for **** ** the ***** ********* ********** ******* *** countries The

    key

    ******** *** provides an ******* ** *** ***** ****** that the ********* narrative ****** ******* The ********* ****** **** * *********** ** **** *** ******* ***** *** ****** ***** *** indicator **** ** ******** ** * list ** questions **** *** ********* ** key ********* ******* *** ******** **** ** **** ** ************* ***** ************ **** *** intelligence *********** ***** /update ********* summary for target warning narrative: what we know ***** and **** ** *** ******* *** ******** program ******** *** ********* ********** **** * ********** target ********* ***** ****** ******* ******** ***** *** ******** ********* ********* *** **** **************** ********** ****** on ****

    phase

    ***** ** the **** ** ************ ********* ******* *** country warning ********** what ** know ***** *** need to **** ** ***** ***** *** computer ******* ******** *** ********** ****** ********* ********* into a ******* ********* ****** ******* ******** *** responsible ***

    maintaining

    ********* ********* for each potential-target *********** ** Phase *** *********** **************** ******** (using website *********** One ** *** **** ** **** ***** is ***** ******** maker with ******* ******** *** required) *** ***** **** ** * warning ****** is ** ****** *** warning ****** ******* ******** ***** *** warning ****** ** * ********

    *****

    ***** *** ******* ********* ***** are designed ** ******

    ***

    ********** reasoning ******* behind **** warning ****** *** ***** **** is ******* ******** maker **** new evidence ** ******* ********* *** ********* If * ******** maker **** not **** *** ******* *** **** *** ***** * ******** ******* ***** ******* *** analyst returns ** *** decision ***** **** new evidence to ***** the ********** ***** the

    ********

    ***** ***** *** warning Rather **** face the *** ** terrorism **** *** *********** ******************* ******** **** *********** ****** * ********** *********** **** that: Guards ****** 81 ******* ** ****** warning ******** and ********** ******** *** ********* ******* ******** Coordinates ******* ** * ************* ********** effort ********* **** ****** ******** ********** into a *************

    ******

    *****

    **************

    *****

    time

    ***** ******** *** ensures ******** ** calculations and *********** ** necessary recurring *********** ****** ***** ***************** *** ************** * Review of ********* ** Terrorism 2000-2012" ********* *** Counter-Terrorism ******* **** ******** ****** **** ******** July

    **

    2016 doi:1019165/2012106 ****** Sundri K "Forecasting Terrorism:

    **********

    *** ****** ******** **************** Intelligence *** ******** *********** Lecture ***** ** Computer ******* **** 561-66 ******** July ** **** **** ******************* ****** ***** * Nicholas *

    *****

    **** * Jensen *** ***** * Edger *********************** Behavior Recognition and *********** Threat ***************** ************* Journal ** ************ *** CounterIntelligence ** ** * ******* ******

    ********

    ****

    **

    2016 ******************************

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    Research analysis on skills of forecasting terrorism week 7.docx

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