Tornadoes and Deaths by Year and Month (1950-1994) Year Total Torn Tornadoes by

Use Tornados data and find two months (month X and month Y) for which we have the SECOND strongest NEGATIVE correlation. Create the chart where x-axis and y-axis represent the tornadoes for month X and month Y. (Choose the months in chronological order X comes before Y) Properly label the chart and be sure that you have the fitted line as well as R2 and answer questions 1 to 4.

1. Which of the following statement is true? (4 points)

a. The observed positive trend means that if we observe more tornadoes for month X we will also see more tornadoes for month Y.
b. The observed positive trend means that as years go by we see more and more tornadoes.
c. The observed negative trend means that if we observe less numbers of tornadoes for month X we will see less tornadoes for month Y.
d. The observed negative trend means that as years go by we see less and less tornadoes.
e. None of the choices.

2. If month X has 50 tornadoes what is the prediction for month Y? (give the exact number using the line equation) (4 points)

a. 22.213 tornadoes observed in month Y if month X has 50 tornadoes
b. 80.05 tornadoes observed in month Y if month X has 50 tornadoes
c. 17.7 tornadoes observed in month Y if month X has 50 tornadoes.
d. 117.15 tornadoes observed in month Y if month X has 50 tornadoes
e. None of the choices.

3. Based on this analysis, would you say that this prediction is very reliable, somewhat reliable or not reliable and why? (4 points)

a. not very reliable prediction because R-square is small and data on the chart looks very random. Correlation = -0.13 is rather weak so the number of tornadoes in month X is not a good predictor of the number of tornadoes in month Y.
b. not reliable prediction because R-square=0.0498 is small and data on the chart looks very random. Correlation=-0.223 is weak so the number of tornadoes in month X is not a good predictor of the number of tornadoes in month Y.
c. somewhat reliable prediction because R-square=0.0498 is decent and data on the chart looks very random. Correlation=-0.223 is moderate so the number of tornadoes in month X is a good predictor of the number of tornadoes in month Y.
d. somewhat reliable prediction because R-square =0.0159 is decent and data on the chart looks very random. Correlation=-0.13 is moderate so the number of tornadoes in month X is a good predictor of the number of tornadoes in month Y.
e. None of the choices.

4. What are the months X and Y? (4 points)

a. February and April
b. August and December
c. July and August
d. None of these