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QUESTION
What is the probability that next years annual maximum negative return exceeds all previous negative returns?
What is the probability that next years annual maximum negative return exceeds all previous negative returns? In other words, what is the probability that next years maximum negative return is a new record? What is the 40-year return level of the negative returns? That is, what is the negative return which, on average, should only be exceeded in one year every forty years?
