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On the Assignment Cover Sheet, read the references to plagiarism and collusion from University Statute 4. Part III - Academic Misconduct. Deadline:...
3. Draw a decision tree by using PrecisionTree software. [Hint: your tree has four end nodes.]
4. Conduct a one-way sensitivity analysis by varying the probability of being sunny. Use base-value +/-25% with 11 steps. [Hint: your original file has to set up the probability of rain as a formula of (1 - the probability of being sunny), rather than a value of 0.25.] Report a sensitivity graph and a strategy region graph (EMV and variations in the probability) and discuss which strategy is the best in terms of EMV (Explain briefly).
5. Conduct a two-way sensitivity analysis by varying the probability of being sunny (0.75) and the fixed investment return per day ($380). Use a base value +/-25% with 11 steps for both variables. [Hint: To refer a fixed return ($380) for the sensitivity analysis, you can choose only one cell. Thus, before doing this analysis, you should link another cell to the cell that you will use for this analysis. In other words, if you put a value of $380 in two cells, the software does not recognize that they are the fixed cost. Please wait for Week 10 lecture.] Report a figure of strategy region. Also, discuss which strategy is the best in term of EMV when the probability of being sunny is 60% (Explain briefly).
Questions 3. (15 marks = 5 + 5 + 5)
This question asks you to generate X-bar charts, using a file, X-bar-chart-data.xlsx. The file contains 50 averages of subsamples following N(2,3) and the ones following N(2,6). The subsample size is 5 (n=5).
1. Report a X-bar chart using averages of subsample generated by N(2,3). Here, assume that the standard deviation (σ = 3) is known and use 2-sigma deviation. You report only the chart but you may follow steps below:
Step 1: obtain the average of 50 averages of subsample from N(2,3).
Step 2: Obtain the UCL and LCL with the sample size n =5 and 2-σ deviation.
Step 3: plot 50 subsamples from N(2,3) with values obtained in Step 1-2.
2. Report a X-bar chart, that has averages of subsample generated by N(2,6) with the UCL and LCL obtained in Step 1-2 above.
3. Can the X-bar chart detect a change of distribution in 2? Explain briefly.
