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Activity 6 Section 3: Correlation, Predication, Confidence, and Errors How did researchers learn that smoking causes lung cancer?
Activity 6Section 3: Correlation, Predication, Confidence, and ErrorsHow did researchers learn that smoking causes lung cancer? The process began with informal observations, as doctors noticed that a surprisingly high proportion of their patients with lung cancer were smokers. These observations led to carefully conducted studies in which researchers compared lung cancer rates among smokers and nonsmokers. These studies showed clearly that heavier smokers were more likely to develop lung cancer. In more formal terms, we say that there is a correlation between the variables amount of smoking and likelihood of lung cancer. A correlation is a special type of relationship between variables, in which a rise or fall in one goes along with a corresponding rise or fall in the other (Bennett, Briggs & Triola, 2009). In this section, you will examine correlation, estimating confidence, and margin of errors. You will also be introduced to prediction through introductory regression analysis. This is important for anticipating results in research, and in many other areas of life.Required Reading:Please refer to the Activity Resources section within each activity for required readings.Correlation and Causation in the News Statistics are routinely used by journalists to explain and support claims. The news media often uncritically report on or even distort the findings of scientific studies. News articles often confound correlation and causation and report that correlations show causation when they actually do not. The difference between them is huge and confusing them can be costly in terms of money and time. As you know from your text, two variables may be correlated because one causes the other, a third variable causes both, or because of coincidence. Activity ResourcesReview: Bennett, J. O., Briggs, W. L., & Triola, M. F. (2014)., Chapter 8McCoy, K. Park, A. (2011, March 24). Rochman, B. (2011, April 11). Main Task: Analyze Statistics in the NewsIn your activity resources above are three news articles that report on scientific studies and make recommendations on the basis of them. Write a paper analyzing these articles. For each article answer these questions and give reasons for your answers:What evidence does the article provide for an association (correlation) between the phenomena discussed? Drawing on your text’s discussion of how to interpret correlations, what would you want to check to be confident that there is actually a correlation? What is the argument that the relationship is causal? Is the argument for the causal relationship convincing? If the argument is not convincing, what additional evidence is needed to make a convincing argument that the relationship is causal? Does it make sense to make changes in your life based on the article?Support your paper with a minimum of three (3) scholarly resources. In addition to these specified resources, other appropriate scholarly resources, including older articles, may be included.Length: 5-7 pages not including title and reference pagesYour paper should demonstrate thoughtful consideration of the ideas and concepts that are presented in the course and provide new thoughts and insights relating directly to this topic. Your response should reflect scholarly writing and current APA standards. Be sure to adhere to Northcentral University's Academic Integrity Policy.
